19th July: Kashmir-Accession to Pakistan Day By Sajjad Shaukat JR190SS61

19th July: Kashmir-Accession to Pakistan Day   By Sajjad Shaukat JR190SS61

Preparations have started by Kashmiris living either side of the line of control and rest of the world to observe the Kashmir’s Accession to Pakistan Day on July 19, this year.

On this very day in 1947, the historical resolution was adopted by the by the All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference in Abi Guzar, Srinagar during an emergency convention at the residence of Sardar Muhammad Ibrahim Khan. It was presided over by Chaudhry Hamid Ullah Khan, and the resolution was presented by Khawaja Ghulam-ud-Din Wani and Abdul Rahim Wani, with 59 prominent leaders in attendance.

The resolution was unanimously adopted on 19th July, 1947 showing a political and constitutional stance. It indicated that existing religious, geographical, cultural, economic ties and the aspirations of millions of Kashmiri Muslims warrant accession of the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) with Pakistan. During the partition of the Sub-continent, the people of the state of Jammu and Kashmir which comprised Muslim majority decided to join Pakistan according to the British-led formula. But, Dogra Raja, Sir Hari Singh, a Hindu who was ruling over the J&K in connivance with the Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Governor General Lord Mountbatten joined India.

The design to forcibly wrest Kashmir began to unfold on August 16, 1947, with the announcement of the Radcliffe Boundary Award. It gave the Gurdaspur District—a majority Muslim area to India to provide a land route to the Indian armed forces to move into Kashmir. There was a rebellion in the state forces, which revolted against the Maharaja and were joined by Pathan tribesmen. Lord Mountbatten ordered armed forces to land in Srinagar.

However, Indian forces invaded Srinagar on October, 27 1947 and forcibly occupied Jammu and Kashmir in utter violation of the partition plan and against the wishes of the Kashmiri people.

When Pakistan responded militarily against the Indian aggression, on December 31, 1947, India made an appeal to the UN Security Council to intervene and a ceasefire ultimately came into effect on January 01, 1949, following UN resolutions calling for a plebiscite in Kashmir.

It is mentionable that the Security Council adopted resolution 47 (1948) of 21 April 1948, which promised a plebiscite under UN auspices to enable the people of Jammu and Kashmir to determine whether they wish to join Pakistan or India. On February 5, 1964, India backed out of its promise of holding plebiscite. Instead, in March 1965, the Indian Parliament passed a bill, declaring Kashmir a province of India-an integral part of the Indian union.

The very tragedy of Kashmiris had started after 1947 when they were denied their genuine right of self-determination. They organised themselves against the injustices of India and launched a war of liberation which New Delhi tried to suppress through various forms of state terrorism.

It is notable that since 1947, in order to maintain its illegal control, India has continued its repressive regime in the Occupied Kashmir through various machinations such as establishment of puppet governments etc.

Ironically, despite a lapse of 71 years, Kashmiris are still struggling and sacrificing to achieve their alienable right under the UN resolutions. Kashmir Valley is one of the most heavily militarized regions in the world with Indian 7 million armed security forces which are perpetrating various forms of state terrorism on the innocent Kashmiris. Since 1989, a deliberate campaign by the Indian army and paramilitary forces against the Kashmiris has been manifested in brutal tactics such as crackdowns, curfews, illegal detentions, massacre, targeted killings, sieges, burning the houses, torture, disappearances, rape, breaking the legs, molestation of Muslim women and killing of persons through fake encounters.

Besides Human Rights Watch, in its various reports, Amnesty International has also pointed out grave human rights violations in the Indian controlled Kashmir, indicating, “The Muslim majority population in the Kashmir Valley suffers from the repressive tactics of the security forces. Under the Jammu and Kashmir Disturbed Areas Act, and the Armed Forces (Jammu and Kashmir) Special Powers Act and Public Safety Act, security forces personnel have extraordinary powers to shoot suspected persons.”

In its report on July 2, 2015, the Amnesty International has highlighted extrajudicial killings of the innocent persons at the hands of Indian security forces in the Indian Held Kashmir. The report points out, “Tens of thousands of security forces are deployed in Indian-administered Kashmir…the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) allows troops to shoot to kill suspected militants or arrest them without a warrant…not a single member of the armed forces has been tried in a civilian court for violating human rights in Kashmir…this lack of accountability has in turn facilitated other serious abuses…India has martyred one 100,000 people. More than 8,000 disappeared (while) in the custody of army and state police.”

In this respect, European Union passed a resolution on May 11, 2011 about human rights abuses committed by Indian forces in the Indian held Kashmir.

Particularly, in 2008, a rights group reported unnamed graves in various regions of the Indian occupied Kashmir. In this connection, in August, 2011, Indian Jammu and Kashmir State Human Rights Commission (SHRC) officially acknowledged in its report that innocent civilians killed in the two-decade conflict have been buried in unmarked graves. Notably, foreign sources and human rights organizations including Association of Parents of Disappeared Persons (APDP) have disclosed that unnamed graves include thousands of persons, killed by the Indian forces in the fake encounters including those who were tortured to death by Indian secret agency RAW.

In its report China’s leading News Agency Xinhua has unearthed more gruesome details on world-stunning unmarked graves in Poonch of the Indian occupied Kashmir. The report revealed the statement of Sofi Aziz Joo, caretaker of a graveyard as saying, “Police and Army used to bring those bodies and direct me to bury them. The bodies were usually bullet-ridden, mutilated, faces disfigured and sometimes without limbs and heads.”

It seems that non-condemnation of these Indian massive human rights violations and non-interference for the settlement of this issue by the so-called civilized international community, especially the US have further encouraged New Delhi to keep on going with its state terrorism on the armless Kashmiri masses. Ignorance of the issue by the US-led Western countries involves the risk of nuclear war between Pakistan and India.

Indian authorities are not willing to talk with Kashmiri people on political grounds. New Delhi reached to a conclusion that only bullet is the right way of dealing with Kashmiris, demanding their right of self-determination. Surprisingly, Indian successive governments are trying to ignore the dynamics of the freedom movement of Kashmiris for the sake of their alien rule.

It is noteworthy that dialogue between India and Pakistan took place on a number of occasions, but produced no outcome, prolonging the agony of the subjugated people of the occupied Kashmir due to Indian intransigence.

It is worth-mentioning that since the martyrdom of Burhan Wani, Commander of Hizb ul Mujahideen by the Indian security forces on July 8, 2017, New Dehi has accelerated state terrorism throughout the Indian Controlled Kashmir. As a result more than 400 people embraced martyrdom and around 40,000 got injured. Many became permanently blind due to pellet guns shots. Curfew remained imposed for several months.

Nevertheless, every year, the Kashmiris and their brethren in Pakistan, and those living all over the world observe 19th July as the Accession to Pakistan Day to re-affirm their commitment to continue their struggle against Indian illicit occupation, and till the attainment of this liberation.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com

Anti-Muslim Aftermath of Modi’s Election Victory By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 189 SS 60)

Anti-Muslim Aftermath of Modi’s Election Victory By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 189 SS 60)

Indian Prime Nerendar Modi’s extremist party BJP had got a land sliding triumph in the Indian elections 2014 on the basis of anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan slogans. Indian election-campaign against Islam, Muslims and Pakistan enabled BJP hardliner Modi to become Indian prime minister. Whereas, the Muslim community in India had felt alienated, frightened and perturbed, as most of them were also effectively disenfranchised.

Muslims were already aware of Modi’s agenda to reduce the Muslim community in India to second class citizens, and had felt nervous and gloomy. Their anxiety was multiplying due to the fact that during the election-campaign, the BJP was also speaking of Hindu deep seated animosity against Pakistan and Pakistani public.

Hence, since the Prime Minister Modi came to power, he has been implementing anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan agenda with the support of fanatic coalition outfits. 

In this regard, various developments like unprecedented rise of Hindu extremism, persecution of Muslims, assaults on Muslims, including their places of worships and property by the fanatic Hindu mobs, inclusion of Hindu religious books in curriculum, forced conversion of Muslims into Hindus and ban on beef and cow slaughter clearly showed that encouraged by the Hindu fundamentalist groups such as BJP, RSS VHP, Bajrang Dal and Shiv Sena, including other similar parties have been promoting religious and ethnic chauvinism in India by propagating the ideology of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) which is the genesis of Hindu terrorism.

Besides, continuing false flag operations, on Setember18, 2016, New Delhi staged the drama of the terror attack in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) at a military base in Uri, close to the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan. After the Uri episode, without any investigation, India’s top civil and military officials, including their media started propaganda against Pakistan by accusing that the militants who targeted the Uri base came from Pakistan’s side of Azad Kashmir. India created war-hysteria against Pakistan and started mobilization of troops near the LoC, while claiming surgical strikes on the Azad Kashmir. But, the myth of Indian so-called surgical strikes was exposed, as Indian top civil and military officers could not prove the strikes. Meanwhile, Indian forces also accelerated violations of the LoC by shelling Pakistani side of Kashmir, which still continues.

However, BJP played the same anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan card to gain votes of a majority of Hindus in the general elections 2019. Hindu majority was mobilized on ‘hate Muslim’ slogans and ‘anti-Pakistan’ jargons, while the incessant and unjust Indian propaganda against Pakistan was beyond anybody’s cognition, which still keeps on going.

Notably, very tension escalated rapidly between New Delhi and Islamabad when on February 27, this year, in response to the Indian so-called pre-emptive air strike near the town of Balakot, close to the border with Pakistan’s sector of Kashmir, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down two Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter jets and launched aerial strikes at six targets in the IOK.

In the aftermath of the false flag terror attack at Pulwama, truth about India’s surgical strikes unmasked, when Indian top civil and military leaders failed in providing any evidence.

The myth of Indian surgical strikes was further exposed, when, referring to the statement of Indian India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj who admitted on April 18, 2019 that no Pakistani soldier or citizen died in the air strike carried out by IAF across the border in Balakot, Director General of Pakistan Army’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Maj-Gen. Asif Ghafoor stated on April 19, 2019: “After India finally admitted that their so-called air strike carried on February 26 in Balakot caused no deaths and casualties…Hopefully, so will be about other false Indian claims [such as] surgical strike of 2016, denial of shooting down of two Indian Air Force [IAF] jets by Pakistan Air Force and claims about F16…Better late than never.”

Afterwards, journalists visited the targeted site of Balakot and Islamabad also released a video which exposed the false statements of New Delhi that IAF fighters targeted the camp of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and killed 350 militants.

In fact, the false flag terror attack in the Pulwama district of the IOK, which killed at least 44 Indian soldiers, was election stunt of the BJP. Exploiting that episode, a wave of jingoism was created by the BJP-led fanatic parties against the Muslims and Pakistan to win the general elections 2019.

Therefore, as regards the elections 2019, on May 23, 2019, National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 352 out of 542 Lok Sabha seats, with the BJP sweeping up 303 seats on its own—21 seats more than it won in the 2014 elections. Across most of North and Central India, BJP candidates also won with bigger vote shares and wider victory margins than in 2014.

Owing to the huge mandate of the BJP, violence has been let loose, with “Jai Shri Ram”–a slogan that roughly translates to “Hail Lord Ram”. As Modi was named as the leader of the NDA for a second time, minority communities especially Muslims have made to live in fear by the extremist Hindus.

In this respect, in the aftermath of the election results, news reports have highlighted different cases in which Dalits and particularly Muslims were violently targeted for reasons as varied as allegedly possessing beef, protesting against caste-based discrimination or simply being Muslim. Especially, various incidents of arrests and violent assaults on the Muslims by the Hindus have been recorded.

In an incident, a Santhali teacher in Jharkhand was arrested for a two-year-old Facebook post defending the right of Adivasi communities to eat beef.

In Begusarai district, where Hindutva hardliner Giriraj Singh won the 2019 Lok Sabha seat, a Muslim youth Mohammed Qasim was shot at by a Hindu Yadav on May 26 after his attacker discovered his religious identity.

25-year-old Mohammad Barkat from Gurugram in Haryana was accosted by a group of Hindus who ordered him to take off his skullcap. According to a report of “The Hindu”, the group of men abused Barkat and told him that skullcaps were not allowed in that area. When Barkat told them that he was returning from the mosque after prayers, one of the men slapped him. Barkat told ‘The Hindu’, “When I refused, he threatened to feed me pork…The men also beat me with a stick and tore my shirt before driving away on a motorbike.”

Tabrez Ansari, 22, was caught by a crowd in the BJP-ruled state of Jharkhand on suspicion of stealing a motorcycle on 18 June. He was tied to a tree and beaten within an inch of his life. And while he was being thrashed, the crowd established his religion–Muslim and then began the demands for “Jai Shri Ram”. Ansari was then arrested and taken into judicial custody. On June 23, he died in a local hospital after he complained that he felt unwell.

In the West Bengal, a 26-year-old Muslim teacher Hafeez Mohammad Sahrukh Haldar was attacked by a group of Hindus on June 24 and was pushed off a train in Kolkata for not chanting “Jai Shri Ram”.

In the run-up to May’s general elections and after the results were declared, Mamata Banerjee, chief minister of Bengal, was constantly heckled by BJP mobs to shout, “Jai Shri Ram”.

Nevertheless, persecution of the Muslims continues unabated in India and the BJP-ruled central government has been largely silent in this regard.

In this connection, Hindu-Muslim communal tension flared up in Old Delhi’s Hauz Qazi on July 1, this year after 3 or 4 Hindu boys, including 45-year-old Sanjeev Kumar Gupta tortured a Muslim boy Aas Mohammad (20) on alleged wrong parking of motor bike on night of June 30, 2019 outside his house next to the temple. Muslims of the area observed shutter down strike. During protest, another scuffle took place between Hindus and Muslims, which resulted into increased tensions. A group of Muslims damaged two Mandirs in the area. However, no casualty took place.

India’s Central Reserve Police (CRPF) cordoned the areas of Darya Gunj, Pahar Gunj, Lal Kunwan, Jamia Masjid and Chandni Chowk with unannounced curfew like situation. New Delhi has ensured a complete black-out of the incident in print and electronic media.

According to the India Today, “Politicians giving communal spin to the incident: Sanjiv Kumar, man involved parking scuffle in Delhi, speaks to India Today...Reiterating that there was no intention to give the Hauz Qazi incident a communal colour…Politicians end up giving communal colour to everything. Whether it is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress or Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), there is no exception.”

It is notable that even foreign print and electronic media and analysts opined, “Modi’s election win is a victory for far right Hindu nationalism…India’s secular democracy is under threat…BJP’s record in 2015-2019 has been divisive to say the least. The party has marginalised religious minorities, especially Muslims, from public life with many, as a result, being lynched by Hindu nationalists in the name of cow protection…Jingoism and Islamophobia has propelled the BJP to an even stronger showing than in 2014. A Modi victory puts India’s 200 million Muslims in danger…Modi is part of the large Hindu supremacist family…In his home state of Odisha, he furthered India’s sectarian divide, pushed the idea of Hindu supremacy and with that, violence against Muslims, Christians and other minorities…Modi is radicalising Muslims.”

Undoubtedly, we can that the Constitution declares India to be a secular state, granting equal rights to the religious minorities, but in practice, ideology of Hindutva prevails. Hindu politics and culture, dominated by the extremist Hindu parties have been propagating Hindutva agenda. After the election victory of the BJP and its coalition parties led by the fundamentalist Prime Minister Modi, Muslim anxiety in India is increasing owing to the fact that like the previous elections, during the election-campaign of 2019, Hindu majority was mobilized on the anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim slogans. 

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com

Wani’s Martyrdom Gave New Impetus to the Kashmir Movement By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 188 SS 59)

Wani’s Martyrdom Gave New Impetus to the Kashmir Movement By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 188 SS 59)

The first death anniversary of Burhan Wani, Commander of Hizb ul Mujahideen was celebrated on July 8, 2017 and second anniversary on July 8, 2018. Since he was an iconic figure of the Kashmir freedom movement, hence, his anniversaries were observed on a large scale in the Indian occupied Jammu & Kashmir. Wide-spread protests were held in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). This year, Wani’s death anniversary is also being observed on July 8. New Delhi has imposed curfew-like situation and suspended the mobile and internet connection services in the IOK, including arrests and detention of hundreds of the Kashmiris.  

The Indian occupation-forces, as usual, are likely to use brute force, including live ammunition and pellet guns against the protestors which may result in casualties.

In 2017, and 2018, widespread and spontaneous protests erupted throughout the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). In order to control the mass movement, the Indian occupation forces unleashed reign of terror against the civilians. As a result more than 400 people embraced martyrdom and around 40,000 got injured. Many became permanently blind due to pellet guns shots. Curfew remained imposed for several months. Around 24,000 people were detained.

However, Burhan Wani, in his early 20s, had become the face of the struggle in Kashmir and over the last six years was using social media like Facebook to reach out to young Kashmiri men to continue their movement for the independence of Kashmir. He became voice of the Kashmiri youth and his popularity irritated New Delhi.

Undoubtedly, Burhan Wani was a great voice for freedom of the Indian Occupied Kashmir. Therefore, the planned killing of Burhan Wani triggered protest throughout the valley.

The terrible and heinous massacre of Muslim populace of the Indian Controlled Kashmir is continuing since almost seven decades without any break. Unfortunately, the callous insensitivity of international community is encouraging India to cross all limits of gross human rights violations. It is not that international community is unaware of atrocities, being unleashed on people of Indian Held Kashmir—it is rather the vested interest of Western governments to remain mute just to please India.

Instead of accepting the existing reality, New Delhi resorts to implicating Pakistan for Kashmiri uprising. Indian allegations against Pakistan are ploy to hoodwink the international community on Kashmir issue and a blanket to hide state sponsored atrocities on innocent people of Kashmir.

International community must realize the plight of the Indian Occupied Kashmir and their people. Kashmir has been under unlawful Indian occupation since October 1947. The people of Jammu and Kashmir have been granted the right of self-determination under the UN Charter, and under several UN Security Council resolutions, more specifically under UN (UNCIP) resolution of August 13, 1948, and January 5, 1949. These along with subsequent UN resolutions have affirmed that the question of accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan will be decided through the political democratic method of free and impartial plebiscite. Unfortunately, stalwart supporter of human equality and advocates of preservation of human rights have done little to resolve decades long Kashmir dispute. It is sad to admit that death of few animals aired by international media can bring tears in the eyes of people, but no heart moves on genocide of innocent Kashmiris. These double standards are drag to international efforts on global peace.

In this regard, Leonardo Boff has rightly said, “The eternal destiny of human beings will be measured by how much or how little solidarity we have displayed with the hungry, the thirsty, the naked and the oppressed. In the end, we will be judged in terms of love.”

Nevertheless, a peaceful, negotiated settlement of Kashmir dispute in accordance with UN resolutions should rank top on UN’s agenda. In order to find a swift and legal solution of Kashmir issue, international community must stand with people of the Indian Held Kashmir. New Delhi should also realize that no freedom movement has ever been suppressed with force and Kashmir is no exception.

It is notable that various forms of state terrorism have been part of a deliberate campaign by the Indian army and paramilitary forces against Muslim Kashmiris, especially since 1989. It has been manifested in brutal tactics like crackdowns, curfews, illegal detentions, massacre, targeted killings, sieges, burning the houses, torture, disappearances, rape, breaking the legs, molestation of Muslim women and killing of persons through fake encounter.

It is noteworthy that very tension escalated rapidly between New Delhi and Islamabad in the aftermath of the false flag terror attack at Pulwama in the IOK, when on February 27, this year, in response to the Indian so-called pre-emptive air strikes near the town of Balakot, close to the border with Pakistan’s sector of Kashmir, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down two Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter jets and launched aerial strikes at six targets in the IOK. Truth about Indian strikes was unmasked, when Indian top civil and military leaders failed in providing any evidence. The main of the Indian Prime Nerendar Modi’s extremist ruling party BJP was to create war hysteria against Pakistan to win the general elections 2019. New Delhi manipulated the war-like situation with Pakistan. Hence, Indian BJP and its other coalition parties got a land sliding triumph in the Indian elections 2019.

It is worth-mentioning that Indian forces have employed various draconian and controversial laws like Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and the Public Safety Act (PSA) etc. in killing the Kashmiri people, and arbitrarily arrest of any individual for an indefinite period.

Besides Human Rights Watch, in its various reports, Amnesty International has also pointed out grave human rights violations in the Indian controlled Kashmir, indicating, “The Muslim majority population in the Kashmir Valley suffers from the repressive tactics of the security forces. Under the Jammu and Kashmir Disturbed Areas Act, and the Armed Forces (Jammu and Kashmir) Special Powers Act and Public Safety Act, security forces personnel have extraordinary powers to shoot suspected persons.”

It is mentionable that under the cover of draconian laws, most of the times, majority of the popular pro-movement leadership is detained or house-arrested by the Indian security forces, and mostly, without prior orders from the higher authorities. As per a Kashmiri human rights group, Voice of Victim (VOV), a total of 1 471 torture centers are operating in the Indian Controlled Kashmir where arrested Kashmiri leaders and the youth are subjected to severe torture.

Nonetheless, this very day is reminder of Burhan Wani’s martyrdom which has given a new impetus to the Kashmir movement in wake of the Indian occupation and state terrorism.

Strategic Contention Over Ports: Pakistan’s Gwadar Versus Iran’s Chabahar By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 187 SS 58)

Strategic Contention Over Ports: Pakistan’s Gwadar Versus Iran’s Chabahar By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 187 SS 58)

An analytical article, written by Vinay Kaura was published on the Indian news website “The Print.in”, Updated: 25 June, 2019. It contains subtitles “India needs Chabahar Port more than ever now, but Trump’s reckless behaviour could ruin it-China and Pakistan have been working overtime to woo Iran and integrate it into their strategic nexus against India”.

In the analysis, Vinay Kaura wrote: “Tensions between the United States and Iran are at an all-time high. And, if hostilities do break out, it would be a huge geopolitical setback for India for multiple reasons, not least because of its impact on oil prices. Ever since President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed economic sanctions, pressures have been building. The downing of an American surveillance drone by Iran…the subsequent threat by Trump of a retaliatory has made matters worse for regional security. Iran has already declared that it would soon breach the limit on nuclear material agreed upon in the 2015 nuclear deal, further escalating the crisis. The US is also planning to send additional troops to the region. Although the mediatory mission that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe undertook to help lower the political temperature between Iran and the US did not bear fruits, this de-escalation mission to Tehran should ideally have been undertaken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even at the risk of its imminent failure.”

Vinay Kaura further wrote: “New Delhi has a specific reason to be extremely concerned about the Iran situation. India believes that its strategic ambitions in Central Asia can be realised with Iranian support. India’s commitment  to building Iran’s Chabahar Port on the Gulf of Oman, connecting India to Afghanistan, through which it can gain access to Central Asia and Eurasia bypassing Pakistan…It is also a counterweight to the Gwadar port, a China-Pakistan joint venture. When the 2015 nuclear deal on Iran was clinched…There was widespread feeling in India’s strategic circles, and even among some in Washington, that the US could begin moving troops and supplies through Chabahar. This was the easiest way to reduce America’s over-dependence on Pakistan… Following this optimistic scenario, Iran, India and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement in 2016, which allows the three countries to open new connectivity routes by converting Chabahar port into a transit hub. But the regional context has perhaps changed remarkably with Trump’s determination to exit from the bloody Afghan theatre…Washington not only lost a huge opportunity to develop an alternate route benefiting American interests in Afghanistan, but also put a question mark over the Chabahar project. New Delhi has substantially reduced its energy dependence on Iran due to sustained pressure from Washington, and the India-backed Chabahar Port has so far remained outside the purview of American sanctions on Iran reimposed in 2018. But if the US-Iran relations deteriorate further, India’s Chabahar geopolitics is bound to suffer irreversible damage. No port can survive without a viable commercial ecosystem.”

While comparing the Chabahar and Gwadar projects, Vinay Kaura elaborated: “And the Gwadar port is already far ahead of Chabahar port in terms of infrastructure and business potential. If military tensions rise, it will hit commercial activities in Chabahar port. This would be music to Pakistan and China’s ears…Although China has been Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friend’ for more than half a century, the scope and dimension of political, economic and military cooperation between the two have been on the rise ever since Xi Jinping came to power. Xi unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a way to make China a preeminent global power, and Pakistan’s geostrategic importance for China also increased manifold…The geography of Gwadar is very interesting. Situated at the mouth of the Arabian Sea, the Gwadar port is part of the Balochistan province in Pakistan. The geostrategic significance of the Gwadar port, on which the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) depends, can’t be overestimated. China has pumped in big money to develop the port. If China sees the Gwadar port as a convenient bridge to connect with the Middle East, Pakistan has reasons to regard the port as a counterweight to the growing strategic convergence between India and the US…If Iran gets militarily punished by the US, Tehran’s resultant diplomatic isolation and economic suffering would present China and Pakistan with the greatest opportunity to integrate Chabahar with Gwadar. This would defeat the very foundation of India’s geopolitical plans in Afghanistan and Central Asia through the Chabahar port. This will also increase Chinese influence in the region.”

Vinay added: “Afghanistan has been totally dependent on Pakistan’s Karachi port for its imports and exports. Without access to Chabahar, it will not be possible for Afghanistan to pursue an independent foreign policy. And this is certainly not what India wants for its regional ally. China and Pakistan have been working overtime to woo Iran to integrate into their strategic nexus against India. Last month, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, during his interactions with Pakistan’s civil-military leadership in Islamabad, reportedly said that Iran has a proposal for the government of Pakistan for connection between Chabahar and Gwadar…We believe that Chabahar and Gwadar can complement each other. Can India afford to ignore Iran’s overtures to China and Pakistan?...Russia’s newfound interest in boosting ties with Pakistan has already complicated India’s position…There is no doubt that if the Chabahar port really gets entangled in Trump’s reckless machinations, it will be a major geostrategic setback for India. New Delhi cannot avoid addressing this challenge even though Narendra Modi may not be interested in shuttle diplomacy.”

However, this analytical article or news item shows the realistic approach of the Indian writer Vinay Kaura. But, it needs further analysis in light of the latest developments.

In this respect, US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s visit to New Delhi from June 25-27 is of particular attention. He met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affair S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

In the joint statement on June 26, 2019, besides other matters, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said: “We pushed for a constructive and pragmatic view on issues related to trade. India would be guided by its own national interest when it came to purchasing defence systems from Russia”.  

US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s said: “The US wants greater market access. We’ve got to get the economic piece right…US-India partnership is already beginning to reach new heights, including our defense corporation and our common vision for free and open Indo-Pacific…Iran is the biggest state sponsor of terror.”

Both the foreign ministers stated that they would look for ways to work through these issues which also include US opposition to the $ 5 billion S 400 defence deal between India and Russia. 

Meanwhile, in a tweet statement, on the same day (June 26), American President Trump said: “I look forward to speaking with Prime Minister Modi about the fact that India, for years having put very high Tariffs against the United States, just recently increased the Tariffs even further. This is unacceptable and the Tariffs must be withdrawn!”

Thus, Trump’s tweet contradicted the joint statement made by S Jaishankar and Mike Pompeo’

Indian and American analysts opined that China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and Beijing’s greater assertiveness over the larger Indian Ocean region have helped draw New Delhi and Washington closer over the years.

It is notable that India was openly opposing the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) or China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), America also joined New Delhi. In this context, on October 3, 2017, the then US Defence Secretary James Mattis told the Lawmakers, “The United States has reiterated its support for India’s opposition to China’s One Belt, One Road initiative…the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”.

It is mentionable that the seventh round of talks began between the American officials and Taliban representatives in Qatar’s capital on June 29, this year, after the US stated that it hoped for a peace deal before September 1, 2019. Reports suggest that America has agreed to the main condition of the Taliban regarding withdrawal of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan.

Notably, after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan, India will have to roll back its multi-faceted network from that country owing to the stiff resistance of the Taliban, as New Delhi supported the US-led militants of the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the war-torn country.

On the other side, taking cognizance of the new developments, Kabul is rapidly improving it relations with Pakistan. Afghanistan is also likely to join the CPEC. Because of America’s hostile and aggressive diplomacy, Iran could abandon the Chabahar project and would also join the CPEC.

Besides, these developments will thwart Indian strategic goals to expand access to Central Asia, Eurasia and the Middle East. Hence, we should agree with the analysis of Vinay Kaura that Pakistan and China would be the beneficiaries and India will be the looser over the strategic contention between Gwadar port and Chabahar port.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com