Strategic Contention
Over Ports: Pakistan’s Gwadar Versus Iran’s Chabahar By Sajjad Shaukat (JR 187 SS 58)
An analytical article,
written by Vinay Kaura was published on the Indian news website “The Print.in”,
Updated: 25 June, 2019. It contains subtitles “India needs Chabahar Port more than ever now, but Trump’s reckless
behaviour could ruin it-China and Pakistan have been working
overtime to woo Iran and integrate it into their strategic nexus against India”.
In the analysis, Vinay
Kaura wrote: “Tensions between the United States and Iran are at an all-time
high. And, if hostilities do break out, it would be a huge geopolitical setback
for India for multiple reasons, not least because of its impact on oil prices.
Ever since President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and
re-imposed economic sanctions, pressures have been building. The downing of an
American surveillance drone by Iran…the subsequent threat by Trump of a
retaliatory has made matters worse for regional security. Iran has already
declared that it would soon breach the limit on nuclear material agreed upon in
the 2015 nuclear deal, further escalating the crisis. The US is also planning
to send additional troops to the region. Although
the mediatory mission that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe undertook to help
lower the political temperature between Iran and the US did not bear fruits,
this de-escalation mission to Tehran should ideally have been undertaken by
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even at the risk of its imminent failure.”
Vinay Kaura further
wrote: “New Delhi has a specific reason to be extremely concerned about the
Iran situation. India believes that its strategic ambitions in Central Asia can
be realised with Iranian support. India’s commitment to building Iran’s
Chabahar Port on the Gulf of Oman, connecting India to Afghanistan, through
which it can gain access to Central Asia and Eurasia bypassing Pakistan…It is
also a counterweight to the Gwadar port, a China-Pakistan joint venture. When
the 2015 nuclear deal on Iran was clinched…There was widespread feeling in
India’s strategic circles, and even among some in Washington, that the US could
begin moving troops and supplies through Chabahar. This was the easiest way to
reduce America’s over-dependence on Pakistan… Following this optimistic
scenario, Iran, India and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement in 2016,
which allows the three countries to open new connectivity routes by converting
Chabahar port into a transit hub. But the regional context has perhaps changed
remarkably with Trump’s determination to exit from the bloody Afghan theatre…Washington
not only lost a huge opportunity to develop an alternate route benefiting
American interests in Afghanistan, but also put a question mark over the
Chabahar project. New Delhi has substantially reduced its energy
dependence on Iran due to sustained pressure from Washington, and the
India-backed Chabahar Port has so far remained outside the purview of American
sanctions on Iran reimposed in 2018. But if the US-Iran relations deteriorate
further, India’s Chabahar geopolitics is bound to suffer irreversible damage.
No port can survive without a viable commercial ecosystem.”
While comparing the
Chabahar and Gwadar projects, Vinay Kaura elaborated: “And the Gwadar port is
already far ahead of Chabahar port in terms of infrastructure and business
potential. If military tensions rise, it will hit commercial activities in
Chabahar port. This would be music to Pakistan and China’s ears…Although China
has been Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friend’ for more than half a century, the
scope and dimension of political, economic and military cooperation between the
two have been on the rise ever since Xi Jinping came to power. Xi unveiled the
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a way to make China a preeminent global
power, and Pakistan’s geostrategic importance for China also increased manifold…The
geography of Gwadar is very interesting. Situated at the mouth of the Arabian
Sea, the Gwadar port is part of the Balochistan province in Pakistan. The
geostrategic significance of the Gwadar port, on which the success of the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) depends, can’t be overestimated. China
has pumped in big money to develop the port. If China sees the Gwadar port as a
convenient bridge to connect with the Middle East, Pakistan has reasons to
regard the port as a counterweight to the growing strategic convergence between
India and the US…If Iran gets militarily punished by the US, Tehran’s resultant
diplomatic isolation and economic suffering would present China and Pakistan
with the greatest opportunity to integrate Chabahar with Gwadar. This would
defeat the very foundation of India’s geopolitical plans in Afghanistan and
Central Asia through the Chabahar port. This will also increase Chinese
influence in the region.”
Vinay added: “Afghanistan
has been totally dependent on Pakistan’s Karachi port for its imports and
exports. Without access to Chabahar, it will not be possible for Afghanistan to
pursue an independent foreign policy. And this is certainly not what India
wants for its regional ally. China and Pakistan have been working overtime to
woo Iran to integrate into their strategic nexus against India. Last month,
Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, during his interactions with Pakistan’s
civil-military leadership in Islamabad, reportedly said that Iran has a
proposal for the government of Pakistan for connection between Chabahar and
Gwadar…We believe that Chabahar and Gwadar can complement each other. Can India
afford to ignore Iran’s overtures to China and Pakistan?...Russia’s newfound
interest in boosting ties with Pakistan has already complicated India’s position…There
is no doubt that if the Chabahar port really gets entangled in Trump’s reckless
machinations, it will be a major geostrategic setback for India. New Delhi
cannot avoid addressing this challenge even though Narendra Modi may not be
interested in shuttle diplomacy.”
However, this
analytical article or news item shows the realistic approach of the Indian
writer Vinay Kaura. But, it needs further analysis in light of the latest
developments.
In this respect, US
Secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s visit to New Delhi from June 25-27 is of particular
attention. He met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affair S Jaishankar
and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.
In the joint statement on June 26, 2019,
besides other matters, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said: “We pushed
for a constructive and pragmatic view on issues related to trade. India would be guided by its own
national interest when it came to purchasing defence systems from
Russia”.
US Secretary of state
Mike Pompeo’s said: “The US wants greater market access. We’ve got to get the
economic piece right…US-India partnership is already beginning to reach new
heights, including our defense corporation and our common vision for free and
open Indo-Pacific…Iran is the biggest state sponsor of terror.”
Both the foreign ministers
stated that they would look for ways to work through these issues which also
include US opposition to the $ 5 billion S 400 defence deal between India and
Russia.
Meanwhile, in a tweet
statement, on the same day (June 26), American President Trump said: “I look
forward to speaking with Prime Minister Modi about the fact that India, for
years having put very high Tariffs against the United States, just recently
increased the Tariffs even further. This is unacceptable and the Tariffs must
be withdrawn!”
Thus, Trump’s tweet contradicted
the joint statement made by S Jaishankar
and Mike Pompeo’
Indian and American
analysts opined that China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and
Beijing’s greater assertiveness over the larger Indian Ocean region have helped
draw New Delhi and Washington closer over the years.
It is notable that
India was openly opposing the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China’s One Belt,
One Road (OBOR) or China’s Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), America also joined
New Delhi. In this context, on October 3, 2017, the then US Defence
Secretary James Mattis told the Lawmakers, “The United States has reiterated
its support for India’s opposition to China’s One Belt, One Road initiative…the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”.
It is mentionable that
the seventh round of talks began between the American officials and Taliban
representatives in Qatar’s capital on June 29, this year, after the US stated
that it hoped for a peace deal before September 1, 2019. Reports suggest that
America has agreed to the main condition of the Taliban regarding withdrawal of
the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Notably, after the withdrawal
of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan, India will have to roll back its
multi-faceted network from that country owing to the stiff resistance of the
Taliban, as New Delhi supported the US-led militants of the Northern Alliance
against the Taliban in the war-torn country.
On the other side,
taking cognizance of the new developments, Kabul is rapidly improving it
relations with Pakistan. Afghanistan is also likely to join the CPEC. Because
of America’s hostile and aggressive diplomacy, Iran could abandon the Chabahar
project and would also join the CPEC.
Besides, these
developments will thwart Indian strategic goals to expand access to Central
Asia, Eurasia and the Middle East. Hence, we should agree with the analysis of
Vinay Kaura that Pakistan and China would be the beneficiaries and India will
be the looser over the strategic contention between Gwadar port and Chabahar
port.
Sajjad Shaukat writes
on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible
Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations
Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com
