Pakistan Playing
Key Role in the US-Taliban Talks by Sajjad Shaukat(JR 146 SS 32)
Despite
hurdles, the fifth round of peace talks which started between the US
negotiators and the Taliban in the Doha-the capital of Qatar on February 25,
this year, is making progress gradually.
Hinting that US
forces could leave Afghanistan within five years under a Pentagon plan offered
as part of a potential deal with the Taliban to end the nearly 18-year war, The
New York Times reported on March 7, 2019, “Nearly 11 days after peace
negotiations between the United States and the Taliban began with high hopes…it
has become clear that any resolution to the 18-year war could be frustratingly
slow. One of the most prominent issues thwarting progress is a disagreement
over a fundamental question: What is terrorism, and who is a terrorist? The
answer is so important because the two sides had already agreed in principle on
a framework for two crucial issues: the withdrawal of American troops, and a
commitment that Afghan soil would not again be used to launch terrorist attacks
against the United States and its allies…American negotiators have insisted on
specifying that Afghanistan not be used by “terrorist” groups, but the Taliban
have resisted, saying there was no universal definition of terrorism”.
However, the
meetings between the interlocutors restarted over in Doha after a temporary
halt to allow for internal consideration. Conflicting reports are coming about
the progress of the dialogue, as these delicate talks are being conducted by
both the sides with much care.
In this regard, Taliban
spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said on March 4, 2019: “The current round of talks
in Doha is advancing on a step-by-step basis. As the issue at hand is immensely
crucial and delicate, it’s progression is taking place with much care and
vigilance…the negotiations continue to focus primarily on a potential US troop
withdrawal from Afghanistan and a pact to prevent Afghanistan from being used
as a safe haven for terrorists…no understanding has so far been reached about
any agreement or document.”
The latest
meetings follow marathon negotiations in January, this year, which saw the US
and the Taliban walk away with a draft framework on the two issues. America has
insisted for a ceasefire and the opening of a dialogue between the Taliban and
the Afghan government whom the former considered puppet regime of the US-led
Western countries. However, the Taliban repeatedly rejected the demands, while
the continuation of the talks followed a major attack on a joint US-Afghan base
in southwestern Afghanistan’s Helmand province on March 1, this year with at
least 23 Afghan security forces killed.
Meanwhile, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on February 10, 2019 offered the
Taliban for opening of an office in Afghanistan, but, the Taliban swiftly
rejected the proposal.
In September
2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo named veteran diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad
as a newly-named State Department special envoy to Afghanistan. Khalilzad,
Pompeo said, would be “full time focused on developing the opportunities to get
the Afghans and the Taliban to come to reconciliation.”
Since Khalilzad
started his efforts to convince the Taliban to have direct talks with the US, Pakistan
has been playing a key role in the US-Taliban talks, as Islamabad succeeded in
bringing the Taliban to the negotiating Table. Zalmay Khalilzad who repeatedly
visited Pakistan and met the civil and military leadership, including country’s
Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Quershi admired Pakistan’s role in the US-Taliban
peace dialogue.
Although the US
has not clearly released a statement regarding the status of the talks, yet it
has admitted Pakistan’s central role in the negotiations between America and
the Taliban leaders.
In this
connection, while giving briefing to the US Senate Armed Services
Committee on March 8, this year, the
head of the US Central Command (CENTCOM)
General Joseph Votel has lauded Pakistan’s role for maintaining peace and stability
in the region. The General elaborated, “We have had some success with
Pakistan, they’ve been more helpful in terms of bringing the Taliban to the [Peace
negotiating] table…positive steps [Of
Pakistan] to assist Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad in support of Afghanistan
reconciliation by facilitating talks with the Taliban. As we have requested [from] them, we have seen
instances where they have taken action against the safe haven areas of the
militants”.
In a discourse
in CBS programme-“Face the Nation” on February 3, 2019, US President Donald Trump has made it clear that he is
determined to get out of “endless wars” in
Afghanistan and
Syria. President Trump stated: “I have
been hitting very hard in Afghanistan and now we are negotiating
with the Taliban…If you look at Afghanistan we are
going in very soon we will be going into our 19th year spending $50 billion a
year”.
American President Trump’s determination and gesturing has
already manifested in the diplomatic manuvours of Khalilzad, resulting in silver-lining for Afghan peace process in Doha.
It is notable
that the war in Afghanistan is America’s longest military intervention which
has cost Washington nearly US $.1.7 trillion. Hence, positive shift in America’s policy
towards Islamabad,
seeking cooperation and re-establishing
the association, have raised hopes regarding the probability of peace in
the war-torn Afghanistan.
It is
mentionable that in the aftermath of Pulwama terror attack in the Indian
Occupied Kashmir and escalation of tension between Pakistan and India, on
February 28, this year, US President Trump hoped that Pakistan-India tension
will de-escalate soon—the United States has been mediating between the two sides
and trying to have them stop. Trump also acknowledged that Washington has
improved her relations with Islamabad shortly.
Particularly,
Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State stated that he has spoken with the leaders
of India and Pakistan and has urged them to avoid “any action that would
escalate and greatly increase risk”.
American State
Department deputy spokesperson Robert Palladino said on March 5, 2019 that
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo played an essential role in de-escalating
tensions between India and Pakistan.
Nevertheless,
President Donald Trump’s positive approach towards Islamabad endorsed the fact
that America needs Pakistan’s help to reach an agreement with the Taliban as
soon as possible.
It is of
particular attention that in his first interview to the NBC News on October 31,
2018, indicating NATO defeat in Afghanistan, the US General Austin
Miller-NATO’s head of Resolute Support in
Afghanistan had admitted by saying: “This is not going to be won
militarily…This is going to a political solution…My assessment is…if you
realize you can’t win militarily at some point…So you do not necessarily wait
us out, but I think now is the time to start working through the political
piece of this conflict.”
Besides, in order to resolve the Afghan imbroglio, Russia is also facilitating approach towards
the Taliban. In this context, a two days conference ended in Moscow on February
6, 2019.
Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai who was among the most high profile
attendees in Moscow, pointed out Kabul’s role in negotiations was something for
it to resolve with the Taliban. He stated: “We understand that the government
in Kabul needs to be part of these negotiations, we wish that they would have
been here today”. During the
meeting with Afghan politicians outside of government, senior Taliban leaders
said that the US had agreed to draw down half of its 14,000 force in
Afghanistan by April, a claim later denied by officials in Washington.
Afghan President
Ashraf Ghani criticised the gathering in Moscow, saying they amounted to
“nothing more than a fantasy.”
The moot
in Moscow also played some
positive role and probably compelled
Washington to intensify efforts to reach an agreement with the Taliban in
connection with Afghanistan. Besides, the role of China to create
stability and peace in Afghanistan has also been very positive.
It is analyzed
that continued suicides by the US war
veterans (Reportedly, 20 per day) also exerted pressure on President Trump to make urgent overtures vis-à-vis
Pakistan and Taliban to implement the withdrawal strategy from Afghanistan and
to improve relations with Islamabad.
It is noteworthy that these related
developments seem to have increased the
agony of Indian deep state. Reportedly, an orchestrated Indian campaign to portray the talks with negative
colours has already been launched,
focusing on human rights issues and plight of Afghan Women.
With the covert assistance of Kabul, India has also activated her proxies,
including “Pashtoon Tahfuz Movement (PTM) with new offensives to create disturbance and law and order situation in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan and that of Baluchistan. Apart from
other similar incidents, recent terror attack
on the DIG Police Loralai office in Balochistan, which killed nine people,
including eight policemen on January 29, this year is an indicator.
It
worth-mentioning that security situation in Afghanistan is well beyond the
control of Afghan security forces and the National Unity Government of that
country. For all its failure, New Delhi and Kabul has been blaming Pakistan in
accordance with their collective agenda which also includes Israel.
In
fact, since the occupation of Afghanistan by the US-led NATO forces, the
country has become center of American CIA, Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad which
are in connivance to obtain the covert designs of the their countries and some
Western countries against Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. Under the cover of
fighting terrorism, these foreign agencies which are also in collaboration with
the Afghanistan’s intelligence agency National Directorate of Security (NDS)
support the militants of ISIS and Afghanistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP), including their linked outfits which have been conducting
terror-assaults in Afghanistan and Pakistan as part of the secret strategy of
the US-led countries—double game of America. These terrorist groups have also
been destabilising Tibetan regions of China and Iranian Sistan-Baluchistan
through subversive activities.
Especially,
India and Afghan government which want to prolong the stay of NATO forces in
Afghanistan are also playing double game against America. New Delhi knows that
after the withdrawal of the NATO forces, Taliban will eliminate the secret
network of RAW, the NDS and Mossad in that lawless country. Therefore, these
intelligence agencies are particularly using the terrorists of TTP and ISIS in
wakening Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Regarding
Indian activities in Afghanistan the then NATO commander, Gen. McChrystal had
pointed out: “Indian political and economic influence is increasing in
Afghanistan…is likely to exacerbate regional tensions.”
Similarly, while taking note of Indian role in
Afghanistan, US Republican Senator John McCain had reminded the Obama
administration that encouraging India to take a more active role in
Afghanistan, while simultaneously criticising Pakistan could be a recipe for
disaster.
It is
also of particular attention that armed forces of Pakistan have successfully
broken the backbone of the foreign-backed terrorists by the successful military
operations Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad which have also been extended to other
parts of the country, including Balochistan province. And Pakistan’s primarily
intelligence agency, ISI has broken the network of these terrorist groups by
capturing several militants, while thwarting a number of terror attempts. But, in the recent past and during the
election-campaign of 2019, blasts in Balochistan and other regions of the
country and failed attempt at the Chinese Consulate in Karachi showed that the
US-led India, Afghanistan and Israel have again started acts of sabotage
especially to weaken Pakistan and to damage the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative
or BRI. Washington and New Delhi have already opposed this project.
Now,
in backdrop of Afghan Taliban’s
successes in maximizing the physical occupation of the country and
recent political/diplomatic gains and
the US-led prolonged war forced America to have a deal with the Taliban. As RAW
and Mossad are in collaboration, therefore, it can be predicted that
Afghanistan in particular and Pakistan in general will witness a surge in the
activities of out-laws, terrorists and the Indian proxies.
Some
analysts opine that Afghan elite class, comprising of businessmen, civil-military
bureaucracy and other rich people might opt to migrate from the country to
adjacent areas in case of the Taliban-USA agreement. However, till that time,
usual anti-Pak rhetoric will remain the common norm for most of the Afghan
government officials, as evident from recent accusative outbursts from Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani during a meeting with the US
peace negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad.
In
any case, Pakistan needs to make
arrangements for another exodus of Afghan migrants (Afghan elites) in
the wake of success of Taliban-US peace talks. Resultant effect will be more
economic burden on Pakistan and socio-economic effects on the local trade and
commerce and influx of more Afghan refugees.
It is
imperative for Pakistan to keep following the evolving meetings in Afghanistan
to counter the drastic aftermath on the region. Intense diplomatic activity,
engaging Iran and other regional countries such as China, Russia and the Middle
East will help in containing the negative spillover effects of the prospective
US-Taliban deal and expected withdrawal of American troops.
Nonetheless, now; President Trump has become
lenient towards Pakistan. Instead of blaming Islamabad for cross-border
terrorism in Afghanistan and emphasizing to ‘do more’ against terrorism, he is
asking for its assistance to ‘help more’ to pull out the US-led NATO forces
from that war-torn country. Although Pakistan is playing a key role in
the US-Taliban talks, yet after obtaining its selfish aims after the withdrawal
from Afghanistan, America can again leave both Pakistan and Afghanistan to face
the fallouts of the ongoing war, as it did after fulfilling its interests
against the former Soviet Union.
Sajjad Shaukat
writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants,
Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations
Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com
