Thursday, August 31, 2023

Manipur- A story spanning 1,990 years in India — by S G Vombatkere — 28/08/2023

 


manipur

Tribal Kangleipak to Hindu Manipur

Meitei people treasure their past, and ‘Kangleipak’ is their name for their ancient civilization. The chronicle of the Ningthouja dynasty of Manipur [Ref.1] records the rule of 76 kings starting 33 CE. The  Ningthouja people were one of several tribal clans of Tibetan-Burmese origin, which migrated into present Manipur region from the East.

The rulers of the dominant Ningthouja (Meitei) clan assimilated other clans, and formed a confederacy of Kangleipak clans. Successive Meitei kings ruled over Kangleipak, with their capital in the Imphal valley, making Imphal into a centre of learning and intellectual activity.

King Naophangba wrote a Constitution in ancient Meitei language in 429 CE, and King Loiyumba (1074–1112) formalised it in 1110 CE. The Meitei people had a written Constitution called “Loyumba Shinyen”, nine centuries ago!

King Loiyumba consolidated his kingdom by incorporating most of the tribal clans in the surrounding hill regions. Kings ruled from ‘Kangla’, a fortified palace known today as ‘Kangla Fort’.

King Khagemba ruled over Kangleipak from 1597 to 1652. His brother Shalungba, unhappy with Khagemba’s rule, wanted to be King. He fled to Bengal, where he allied with Bengali Muslim leaders and marched upon Kangleipak with a contingent of Bengali Muslim soldiers. King Khagemba’s army defeated Prince Shalungba’s contingent, captured the soldiers and made them work as labourers. These soldiers married local Meitei women and adopted the Meitei language. Their progeny form today’s Manipuri small Muslim community, known as ‘Meitei Pangals’.

In 1714, King Pamheiba was initiated into the Gaudiya Vaishnava faith by Shantidas Gosain, a Bengali Hindu. Pamheiba was a powerful ruler, and made the Gaudiya Vaishnava faith as the religion of his kingdom, and is said to have introduced the Bengali script to substitute the Meitei script. Then in 1724, the Kangleipak kingdom adopted the Sanskrit name of “Manipur”.

Corporate interests, British rule and Christianity

During the reign of King Bhagyachandra (1748-1799), the Kingdom of Burma attacked and occupied Manipur, allowing the ruler only nominal power. In 1824, King Gambhir Singh, then Manipur’s ruler, entered into an alliance with the British East India Company, for help to oust the Burmese. The British sent Sepoy troops and artillery, and the Burmese were driven out of Manipur in 1826. Thus, Manipur came under the control of a business and trading corporation bearing the name and title of East India Company.

India’s 1857 War of Independence – ‘Sepoy Mutiny’ per the British – resulted in the British Crown taking political control of East India Company’s territorial possessions. Following internecine intrigue in the Manipur Court, one of the throne contenders approached the British for help. The British took advantage of this to capture Manipur in April 1891, making it an internally self-governing ‘Princely State’ under its rule.

In 1894, Christian missionaries were permitted entry into Manipur. They learned the Meitei language, studied and translated surviving Meitei scripts, started schools, and translated the Bible into Meitei language. Most people of the hilly regions of the princely State of Manipur were converted to Christianity.

Manipur – special status

During the Second World War, the Japanese Army advanced up to Imphal (and Kohima in present-day Nagaland). During March to July 1944, Imphal was the scene of a defining battle between Indian and Japanese troops, resulting in the defeat and withdrawal of Japanese forces. The British continued to rule over Manipur.

On 11 August 1947, with end of British rule certain, Maharaja Budhachandra signed an Instrument of Accession, and Manipur joined Independent India. On 21 September 1949, he signed a Merger Agreement, merging Manipur into the Union of India. However, Manipuri people’s groups with differing visions for their future, disputed the merger, arguing that it was done under duress and without consensus.

Later, the dispute developed into demands for independence from India, and resulted in insurgency in Manipur. There were episodes of violence among groups within Manipur, which had conflicting interests.

The Constitution (Twenty-seventh Amendment) Act, 1971, introduced Article 371C(1) to provide “Special provision with respect to the State of Manipur”.

Manipur today

From the foregoing historical-civilizational context of Manipur, we observe that practically all of Manipur’s population is of tribal (“Adivasi” is a preferred word) stock. However, religion-wise, Meiteis were Hindu, King Pamheiba’s declared state religion. People who lived in the hills continued with their respective Adivasi faiths, until converted as Christian in British times.

The social structure and demography of Manipur’s people has changed over the centuries, but more rapidly in recent decades. Due to geo-historical reasons, people in the Imphal valley – covering about 10% of the area of Manipur – are mostly Meitei. They constitute 53% of Manipur’s population, over 90% of them, Hindu by religion. (India Census 2011).

The people living in the hilly regions are about 40% of Manipur’s population, and belong to around 30 different tribes. Kuki people are about 25% of Adivasi hill people, but Naga people – themselves belonging to different tribes – and Zo people, also live in Manipur’s hilly regions. Meiteis in the Imphal valley are generally economically better-off than Kukis who live in the hilly regions.

Over 80% of Adivasi people living in Manipur’s hill regions are Christians. Even so, the Adivasi groups are proud of their distinctive identities of language, dress, cuisine and culture. Since the hilly regions of Manipur constitute about 90% of the area of Manipur, five of Manipur’s nine districts have Christian majority population.

Manipur has a population of about 28-lakhs, in 60 Assembly constituencies, 40 of them in the valley, and 20 in the hill regions. The Meitei majority holds overwhelming political power.

Before May 3, 2023, small numbers of Kukis lived in Imphal valley among Meiteis, and similar numbers of Meiteis lived in the hilly regions among Kukis.

Social-economic-political factors

Successive central governments from Independence to present times, have failed to understand the social, economic and political complexities of the richly forested hilly northeast region including Manipur, and the multi-cultural character of its Adivasi tribes.

Governments, myopically focused upon development-by-economic-growth, cannot recognize that Adivasi cultures are centred on the forested lands within which they have lived for countless generations.

The historic reason for tensions between Manipur’s Kuki-Zo & Naga hill people and the Meitei plains people, is both territorial and economic. But majoritarian communal forces have converted the Meitei-Kuki conflict of interests, into the ongoing vicious and violent politics of “Hindu (Meitei) versus Christian (Kuki)”.

Manipur Nagas 

With violence continuing in Manipur, some Kuki groups demanded a “separate administration” for themselves, covering hill areas which they consider as their homeland, shown on a map for a proposed Kuki State [Ref.2] submitted to MHA on August 17, 2023. However, this map includes areas of Manipur which the Nagas consider as their traditional land.

This is the flash point for hitherto simmering differences between the Kuki and Naga communities of Manipur. The Nagas claim that Kukis are distorting the history [Ref.3] of Manipur, that the name “Kuki” was first heard sometime between 1830-1840, and that the British “planted” the Kuki tribe in the region. Manipur Nagas oppose the demand of the Kuki community for a separate administration, and hold that the Kuki community’s claims are an insult to the Naga community.

Thus, even while State and Central governments are unable to stop the violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities, a new “front” of conflict between Kuki and Naga communities of Manipur has opened. The nation is now confronted by a multi-cornered conflict, with subtexts of historical territorial claims, threat to traditional tribal ways of life and livelihood, and insecurity concerning land and economic rights. The entry of foreigners (Myanmarese) into Manipur across the open border, adds to the problem.

These subtexts are bracketed by government’s development agenda, which demands land for industrial-scale projects in Manipur’s hill regions. However, before going into this, there is the “poppy issue”.

Poppy cultivation and narcotics trade

Poppy cultivation in Manipur’s hill regions is based upon economic compulsions. Narratives from the field [Ref.4] show that food insecurity, poverty, and material aspirations and needs, are the drivers of illegal opium production in Manipur. Field studies reveal the following socio-economic compulsions for poppy cultivation:

# Food insecurity (unemployment, poverty, and lack of an alternative means of livelihood) – 56.9%

# Children’s education (need money to pay for school fees, uniforms, books, etc) – 20.9%

# Material needs (money to build a house, and to buy items such as phones, televisions, motorcycles, etc) – 10.8%

# Indebtedness (need cash to pay debts) – 10.5%

The Anti-Narcotics Department, Manipur Police, and Assam Rifles, regularly destroy poppy and ganja crops in Manipur. Conducting drives against illicit poppy cultivation has become an annual affair, but despite law enforcement agencies destroying hundreds of acres of poppy plants each year, government survey reports indicate that poppy cultivation continues in the hill areas of Manipur (NCB 2018).

Five of Manipur’s districts together have 390-km borders with Myanmar. This border is virtually open, enabling easy drug-trade with narcotics cartels based in Myanmar-Vietnam. Poppy cultivation, although illegal, is profitable.

Citing “improved security situation”, and conclusion of agreements to end insurgency to “bring lasting peace”, on April 1, 2022, Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) removed disturbed areas and Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from some districts of Assam and Nagaland, and 15 police stations of six districts of Manipur. On March 24, 2023, AFSPA was removed from four more Manipur police stations, since CM Biren Singh claimed [Ref.5] a “significant improvement in law and order situation in the state” and reduction in insurgent activities.

Without AFSPA, the Army and Assam Rifles are disabled from counter-insurgency and internal security operations, and in keeping strict check on poppy cultivation and narcotics smuggling across the Myanmar border. Without AFSPA, these have become the responsibility of Manipur State Police acting under government orders.

Strangely, with the present ongoing violence and complete breakdown of law-and-order in Manipur continuing for the past 112-days, MHA has not seen fit to reimpose “disturbed area” and AFSPA, to enable the Army and Assam Rifles to act legally.

Noting that “in January 2023 alone”, [Ref.6] Assam Rifles captured nearly Rs.12-crores worth of narcotics, it has been argued that [Ref.6] disabling Assam Rifles in anti-narcotics operations, enables State Police to wink at narcotics smuggling activities, hitherto strictly controlled by Army and Assam Rifles.

It is known that international drug mafia is connected with certain big international corporates, hiding behind shell companies and other legal and illegal screens. It is no secret that big corporates influence ruling parties (past central and state governments included) and even dictate policies and governance.

Removing AFSPA and not re-imposing it in the present serious situation, brings into question whether some persons in Manipur’s political power structure, have vested interests in land for poppy cultivation and narcotics trade. Violence continuing in civil society may enable drug-lords to control land for poppy cultivation, and continue illegal cross-border narcotics trade.

Notwithstanding, reality is that (illegal) poppy cultivation is the source of much-needed money for poor hill farmers. Thus, apart from possible vested interests, poppy cultivation continues because successive Governments have been unsuccessful in providing alternative economically sustainable opportunities to the hill area peoples, and scarce development funds are mostly cornered by politically powerful people within Manipur.

The effect on India’s national security, by China acting through Myanmar-based narcotics mafia proxies and insurgents, must not be under estimated.

Corporate interests and land

Recent surveys indicate presence of commercially valuable minerals in the forested hilly northeast region. There is also corporate interest in industrial-scale cash crop cultivation for edible oils, especially palm oil. These require forest land to be converted for non-forest use, and goes against the interests of the people, who are mostly forest-dwellers. [The global warming and climate change effects of such deforestation require separate discussion].

Recognizing the self-governance, land, and economic rights of forest-dwelling Adivasi peoples, central governments had enacted laws such as Forest Conservation Act 1980 (FCA 1980), Panchayats Extension to Scheduled Areas Act 1996 (PESA 1996), and Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers Recognition of Forest Rights Act 2006 (FRA 2006), to protect those rights.

However, central governments themselves amended these Acts to further their new agenda of economic development. Examination of the amendments reveals that governments have enabled land acquisition in forested areas for corporate business-industry enterprises, and “legally” weakened forest-dwellers self-governance, land and economic rights.

This is demonstrated [Ref.7] by the Legislative Assembly of Mizoram (Manipur’s neighbour having similar forested geography and demography) adopting a resolution on August 22, 2023, opposing Parliament’s FCA Amendment Act, 2023, “to protect our forest from destruction and to safeguard the rights of people of the state”.

To be fair, government-initiated disempowerment of Adivasi people has been happening across states, beginning in UPA times, as for instance for bauxite mining in the Niyamgiri Hills, of which more later.

The ongoing violence in Manipur is essentially centred on insecurity felt by people concerning their economic interests and land rights. Government enabling the entry of corporate interests into Manipur, has worsened the situation.

Two recent reports regarding corporate need for land in Manipur, concern Oil Palm plantations, and minerals mining.

Palm oil

As part of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative to set up Oil Palm Missions in the North-Eastern region, in November 2020, Manipur CM Biren Singh, launched an Oil Palm Project (OPP) [Ref.8] under the National Mission  [Ref.9] on oil seed and palm oil.

Oil Palm, a versatile and hardy crop, is source of cooking oil. Reportedly, oil palms produce more oil per hectare of land than any other oil-producing crop, and require less energy, fertilizers and pesticides.

Thus, the OPP is expected to make India self-sufficient in edible oil, and even permit its export. However, unless the project is of industrial scale, these objectives cannot be met. This is at the root of corporate need for land for industrial-scale plantations.

Government of Manipur (also Assam and Tripura) has pressed ahead with OPP, including signing MoU with agribusiness company Godrej Agrovet, for development and promotion of palm oil cultivation. [Ref.10]

It is understood that people – land owners, cultivators, and primary stakeholders – were not consulted. Adani Group has tied up with Wilmar, a big palm oil company, and launched a Adani-Wilmar edible oil conglomerate, to control much of India’s edible oil industry. [Ref.11]

CM Biren Singh did also say that the OPP could be an alternative to replace Jhum and poppy cultivation in the state. What CM Biren Singh apparently missed, is that government will acquire land for planting oil palms, and Kuki people who depend upon their land for livelihood – howsoever meagre and even if from illegal poppy cultivation – will be reduced to penury.

Mining for minerals

Platinum, an extremely rare metal, has value comparable with gold. It plays a critical role in many industrial and manufacturing processes. [Ref.12] Contemporary domestic and international business interests in platinum are undeniable.

Platinum group metals (PGMs) are considered vital to enhance battery performance of lithium batteries of the future, for cell phones, EVs, and NCES storage. PGMs have a huge industrial-commercial future. The last 10–15 years have seen a sharp increase in exploration for, and research on, PGE deposits.

The presence of PGMs in India’s northeastern States was documented in March 2016. [Ref.13] This may well have triggered the Union Cabinet approving the National Mineral Exploration Policy (NMEP) [Ref.14] three months later, in June 2016, to accelerate mineral exploration through enhanced participation of the private sector.

Recognizing a future of immense industrial-commercial potential, government declared that mineral resources discovered, were to be treated as “auctionable resources”. NMEP does assure considering the issues of project affected persons, especially those residing in tribal areas – which is 90% of Manipur – but experience shows that such assurances of successive governments, are hollow.

With particular reference to Manipur, PGMs were reported in 2022. [Ref.15] The actual PGM potential in Manipur, as indeed anywhere else in the world for any mineral, will be secret. However, people who expect to lose their land through government acquisition for industrial-commercial ‘development’ purposes, are not concerned with the commercial potential of the land. They only understand that they will lose both land and livelihood, like people in similar circumstances continue to do in India. They may see a dismal future of deprivation and penury for themselves and their children.

Land acquisition

Land acquisition for industrial use has been happening for several decades in many states. Affected communities have been resisting this, but only some have succeeded.

For over two decades, land in Odisha’s Niyamgiri Hills has been sought to be acquired for bauxite and other minerals, in violation of the land and forest rights of Dongria Kondh Adivasis. The Adivasis have been peacefully resisting all these years, by quoting their rights over lands, livelihoods and way of life under (motivatedly weakened) PESA and FRA, both on the ground and in Courts of law. But in the name of “development”, state and central governments have been pressuring the Adivasis to yield and vacate, using police forces to intimidate them.

people’s report [Ref.16] of August 21, 2023, from Odisha is the most recent instance of the government-corporate nexus working for “development” at the cost of people’s lands and livelihoods.

It is inconceivable that Manipuri Kukis were unaware of the situation in Odisha and elsewhere in India too, even before the internet in Manipur was shutdown.

The Manipur High Court order of March 27, 2023, directing the state government to consider inclusion of the Meitei community in the ST List, triggered the violence starting May 3, 2023.

Kukis have always objected to Meitei demands for inclusion in the ST List. One of the reasons is that ST status for Meiteis, will allow them to acquire lands in Kuki-dominated hilly areas. This fits well with the Meitei-dominated Manipur government’s plans for oil palm cultivation and mining for minerals, discussed earlier.

With neighbouring Mizoram – with a significant Kuki population – rejecting Parliament’s FCA Amendment Act 2023, to protect its people’s forest and land rights, Manipuri Kuki people’s objection to land acquistion (or threatened acquistion) for industrial-commercial exploitation was not unexpected.

Explosive situation

People identifying themselves as Meitei, Kuki and Naga, are spread across Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. India’s Adivasi-dominated northeast region is a veritable cauldron of tribal identities, each with a historic, civilizational past.

The identity-based killing, rape and arson continuing in Manipur for nearly four months, can unpredictably spread as similar identity-based violence in another state, with serious consequences.

It is high time that the central government understands the complex causes of unrest and violence, and takes effective people-friendly measures to bring peace to Manipur, in the interest of national integrity.

Losers and gainers 

The model of development-by-economic-growth drives intra-national and international unrest and violence, with People as losers and big corporations as gainers.

The ongoing mutual violence between Kuki and Meitei communities in Manipur, with the Naga community also joining issue, is causing incalculable personal, social and economic loss locally, regionally and at national level. Only the drug mafia and corporates making large-scale entry into Manipur’s economy in cahoots with powerful persons in governments, are the gainers.

Monday, August 28, 2023

Chenab Formula & Musharraf’s four point formula - A possible Solution of the Kashmir Dispute and a criticism of the two proposals


Chenab Formula & Musharraf’s four point formula - A possible Solution of the Kashmir Dispute and a criticism of the two proposals

Possible Solutions

1. The Status Quo
 In 1947-48, India and Pakistan fought their first war over Jammu and Kashmir. Under United Nations’ supervision, they agreed to a ceasefire along a line which left one-third of the state administered by Pakistan and two-thirds by India. In 1972, under the terms of the Simla agreement, the ceasefire line was renamed the Line of Control (LoC). Although India claims that the entire state is part of India, it has been prepared to accept the Line of Control as the international border, with some possible modifications. Both the US and the UK have also favored turning the Line of Control into an internationally-recognized frontier  This is more or less what late Mr. Vajpayee offered to Pakistan during his visit to Lahore and Pakistan.
But Pakistan has consistently refused to accept the LoC as the border since the predominantly Muslim Kashmir Valley would remain as part of India. Formalizing the status quo also does not take account of the aspirations of the Kashmiri’s.

2. Kashmir Joins Pakistan
On 2nd November, 1947 India’s first Prime Minister Pandit Jawharlal Nehru announced on All India Radio that “Kashmir future will be decided by the means of plebiscite”. It essentially meant that the allegiance of the state of Jammu and Kashmir would be decided by the Kashmiri’s. Had the majority voted in favor of Pakistan, the whole state would have become part of Pakistan.
However the promise of plebiscite is still pending. India claims that people’s participation in elections shows that people are happy and there is no demand for any plebiscite. Pakistan and those opposing this viewpoint on the other hand say that the elections have never been free and fair in Kashmir and when they have been so, the people have voted for governance issues like roads, electricity and other amenities, and not for sorting out the Kashmir dispute.
However the demand for a plebiscite to be held, as recommended by the Governor-General of India, Lord Mountbatten in 1947, and endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, is still considered by Pakistan as a way of letting Kashmiri’s exercise their right of self-determination.
3. Kashmir Joining India
In 1947, the Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir agreed to the state becoming part of India. India and Pakistan then agreed to hold a plebiscite to confirm which country Kashmir’s citizens wanted to join. The Indian Government believed that the majority population, under the charismatic leadership of Sheikh Abdullah, would vote to join India, with its secular constitution, rather than Muslim Pakistan. If the plebiscite had been genuinely held and the majority had voted in favour of India, Pakistan would have had to relinquish control of the Northern Areas and the narrow strip of Jammu and Kashmir. But, sensing an impending defeat of its aspirations, India has intentionally kept shut the door of plebiscite. Moreover, such a solution would be unlikely to bring any stability to the region as the Muslim inhabitants of Pakistani-administered Jammu and Kashmir have never shown any desire to become part of India.
4. Independent Kashmir
In the 1960s, following discussions between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir, a group of Kashmiri’s demanded that the entire state should become independent as it was prior to the Maharajah’s accession to India in 1947. But, the difficulty of adopting this as a potential solution is that it requires India and Pakistan to give up territory, which they will not be willing to do. Any plebiscite or referendum likely to result in a majority vote for independence would therefore probably be opposed by both India and Pakistan. It would also be rejected by the inhabitants of the state who are content with their status as part of the countries to which they already owe allegiance. And in view of the likely regional instability, an independent Kashmir is not supported by the international community either.
An independent Jammu and Kashmir might also set in motion the demand for independence by other states in both India and Pakistan and lead to a “Balkanisation” of the region.
5. A Smaller Independent Kashmir
If, as the result of a plebiscite, which offered the option of independence, the majority of the inhabitants of the Kashmir Valley chose independence and the majority of the inhabitants of Azad Jammu and Kashmir also chose independence, a smaller, independent Kashmir could be created by administratively joining these two areas together.
This would leave the strategically important regions of the Northern Areas and Ladakh, bordering China, under the control of Pakistan and India respectively. However both India and Pakistan would be unlikely to enter into discussions which would have this scenario as a possible outcome. Regardless of the aspirations of the inhabitants, to date neither country has contemplated a situation where the end result would adversely affect their own interests.
6. Independent Kashmir II
The movement for independence in the Kashmir Valley gained momentum in the late 1980s when Kashmiri’s protested against their continuing allegiance to the Indian Union. In the present day, if a regional plebiscite offered independence as an option, it is possible that the majority of Kashmiri’s would vote in favor of independence. Moreover, an independent Kashmir has been considered by some as the best solution because it would address the grievances of those who have been fighting against the Indian Government since long. But critics say that the region would not be economically viable without external assistance.
7. The Chenab Formula
This plan, first suggested in the 1960s, would see Kashmir divided along the line of the River Chenab. With the inclusion of Ladakh, which also lies north of the Chenab River, India would be left with approximately 3,000 square miles of territory out of 84,000 square miles. This would give the vast majority of land to Pakistan and, as such, a clear victory in its longstanding dispute with India. The entire valley with its Muslim majority population would be brought within Pakistan’s borders, as well as the majority Muslim areas of Jammu.
This solution would require the voluntary agreement of India to give up territory which it wants to retain. It is impossible to see what benefit India could derive from the transfer of so much land, and why the government – or the inhabitants of the region who are not contesting their status – would ever agree to such a solution.
8. The Chenab Formula II
Chenab Formula is one the seven popular formulas given for resolving Kashmir conflict.  These series of formulas ranges to two extreme with one of them allotting entire Jammu and Kashmir State to Pakistan while other one allotting entire state to India.   The Chenab formula was proposed in late 1960s as one of the possible solution to conflict. However, it gained prominence (with some differences) during Musharraf period of Pakistan. It is based loosely on combination of 2 nation theories and geographic feasibility of division of the state.
Under the Chenab formula, the state of Jammu and Kashmir should be divided on the lines of Chenab River which flows through the state. If divided, the north of the river part will go to Pakistan while southern part will go to India. The formula can be described as follows:


1 Three entities to be carved out of the area of pre-1947. Jammu and Kashmir are now being administered by India. These three parts would be represented by a body which will take care of issues of common interest.

2 Two entities, in the part being administered, by Pakistan would be established, these being Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas. They would be represented in a coordinating body that would consider issues of mutual interest.

3. An All-Kashmir body will be set up to co- ordinate issues of broader interest such as trade , tourism , environment and water resources .this body will include representatives from each of the five entities as well ad from India  and Pakistan .

4. Each of the five entities would have its own constitution, flag, and legislature. Which would legislate on all matters other than defense and foreign affairs? India and Pakistan would be. Responsible for the defense of the entities and the entities would maintain their own internal law and order. India and Pakistan would be expected to work out the financial arrangements for the entities.

5. Citizenship of the entities would also entitle the citizens to acquire Pakistani or Indian passport depending on which side of the Line of Control they live in. Alternatively they could use entity passports subject to endorsement by India or Pakistan .as appropriate.

6. The border of the entities with India and Pakistan will remain  open for the free transit of people  , goods and services in accordance with arrangements 
to be worked out between India , Pakistan and the Entities .

7. While the present Line of Control will remain in place until such time as both  India and Pakistan decided to alter it in their mutual interest , both India and Pakistan will demilitarize the area included in the entities . Neither India nor Pakistan could place troops on the other side of the Line of Control without the permission of the other State.

8. All displaced persons who left any portion of The Entities would have the right to return to their home localities.

Musharraf’s Four-point Formula  

There have been numerous attempts, certainly, in the past to present proposals for resolving this dispute, but none has seemed to take hold. Musharraf’s Four Point Formula which was widely discussed in 2006 
    General Musharraf’s Four-point formula involves the following:

1.         Demilitarization or phased withdrawal of troops
2.         There will be no change of borders of Kashmir. However, people of Jammu & Kashmir will be allowed to move freely across the Line of Control.
3.         Self-governance without independence
4.         A joint supervision mechanism in Jammu and Kashmir involving India, Pakistan and Kashmir.


 9.  Discussion
Demilitarization is an option that was suggested by the United Nations and in particular by Sir Owen Dixon of Australia. This has been the demand of the leadership of the Kashmiri resistance that demilitarization from both sides of the Ceasefire Line will pave the way for a serious and thoughtful solution to the Kashmir dispute.
The Line of Control is in fact a line of conflict which needs to be eroded so that the people of Kashmir can move freely from one area to the other. But the problem arises when the ‘Four-point Formula’ says that borders cannot be withdrawn. That is a very loaded phrase. That means that the Line of Control should in fact be established permanently as an international border.   This would be a possible ‘solution’ for both India and Pakistan but not for the Kashmiri people. India lost an opportunity and the Butt, Guru and Wani affairs have perhaps brought the Kashmiri to a tipping point where a status within the Indian federation would not be at all acceptable
Self-governance undoubtedly has broad meaning. Self-governance means freedom, independence and autonomy. It means that the people would be makers of their destiny. It also means that one has to be the shaper of one’s future. So, the term self-governance by itself is not an issue but the concept of self-governance within the parameters of Four-point Formula is. It is problematic because under this plan, self-governance excludes the option of freedom or independence. In fact it clearly says that the people of Kashmir will be given self-governance without independence. Will India retain the power to tax the Kashmiris?  Will people have a hand in the politics and influence who has the mandate to rule? Will they pass new laws which infringe on the limited self-rule the Kashmiris possess?  Where does self-rule begin and where does it end, if Kashmir does not possess sovereignty over its land?
The drafters of the four-point formula have been quite conscious of the sentiments of the people of Kashmir. They knew that the resistance to foreign occupation that began in 1931 and continues until now does not accept de-facto rule by any country over Kashmir. Therefore, they wanted to play a linguistic game and came up with the idea of self-governance which is a deceptive and misleading term that gives an appearance of sovereignty without any substance. It is purely a mask. It prohibits further discussion on the subject of independence and promotes internalization of the Kashmir dispute. Without actual sovereignty for Kashmir, under the Four-point formula, the people of Kashmir will have to accept the supremacy and rule of India over their lives, and the possibility of that being eroded by whatever whim, fancy or circumstance may intervene in the future. Perhaps self-governance now, designed and managed by external powers, which is subject to the will of those foreign powers without due respect for the sovereignty of Kashmir and all the international protections that accompany it, has the appearance of a step in the right direction but on an extremely slippery slope. Self-governance is a mere illusion: what is given can be taken away, when it does not in fact include true sovereignty. 
Those who believe that the people of Kashmir should accept the Musharraf’s Four-point formula should be bold enough to say exactly what it is i.e., that the formula gives the people of Kashmir only choice and that is to be part of India. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. This is only a slightly broader version of Article 370 drafted in 1949 which today practically has become meaningless.
  In order to reach an imaginative settlement of the Kashmir dispute, all parties concerned – Governments of India & Pakistan and the leadership of the people of Kashmir – will have to show flexibility. But in the Four-point formula the only party which becomes a sacrificial lamb and shows flexibility and makes sacrifice are the people of Kashmir. That should not be an option.  The demand for self-determination is greater now than it has been in many years.  


Dr Shireen M Mazari has stated that Pakistan needs to aggressively put forward concrete proposals for the resolution of the Kashmir dispute on the basis of the UN resolutions,  on principle of self determination and plebiscite, comprising the details of intermediary steps.
 Proposed solution should problem resemble the Irish Peace Accord. She made it clear that she was not referring to any specific clauses of the said accord but the broad concept on the basis of which the accord was signed and implemented. She also referred to the East Timor independence based on the concept of self determination and said Pakistan should press the Kashmir case on these lines. She also said Pakistan should ask the United Nations to document all the Kashmiri’s in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) and also of the Kashmiri Diaspora across the world who qualified to vote in the referendum based on the UN resolutions whenever it took place adding that such documentation needed to be done. The minister said the citizens of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) were already documented because they were participating in regular elections.
 The Anglo-Irish Agreement was a 1985 treaty between the United Kingdom and Ireland which aimed to help bring an end to the Troubles in Northern Ireland.The treaty gave the Irish government an advisory role in Northern Ireland's government while confirming that there would be no change in the constitutional position of Northern Ireland unless a majority of its people agreed to join the Republic. It also set out conditions for the establishment of a devolved consensus government in the region.
An independence referendum was held in East Timor on 30 August 1999. The referendum's origins lay with the request made by the President of Indonesia, B. J. Habibie, to the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan on 27 January 1999, for the United Nations to hold a referendum, whereby the Indonesian province would be given choice of either greater autonomy within Indonesia or independence.



 Conclusion

Kashmir conflict is no doubt an intractable conflict making all parties to search for a formula to resolve the conflict peacefully. What could be the political framework that will accommodate the Kashmiri aspiration for self-determination, the interests of India and Pakistan is the real challenge for those who seek peace in the region.
Considering the ground geo-political realities in the Indian sub-continent, the most workable solution to the Kashmir dispute seems to be minimizing the security forces in Kashmir and granting basic human rights to the Kashmiri’s, reliving them from daily frisking, and focus should be on creating more employment and education opportunity for Kashmiri’s. While this may not be the ultimate solution to this issue, it may well prepare some ground for a better solution and meanwhile relieve the people of the region from their day-to-day turmoil. Musharaff did provide the Indians an opportunity, He gave one sided concessions which included the elimination of State owned training camps etc ; and allowed the Indians to fence the LoC and Line of Actual Control , this was a big concessions for which neither the Pakistanis nor the Kashmiri’s got any counter concession. India did not use the respite offered wisely, Butt, Guru and Wani incidents have brought the Kashmiri’s to a tipping point. Post Wani’s martyrdom  the freedom movement is no linger in control of the Freedom leadership in Kashmir the Indian actions have now brought the Kashmiri Muslims to a tipping point where any Indian presence or role is completely off the table.
Norwegian Initiative
December 14, 2018, 9:44 AM IST
The meeting of former Norwegian Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik with Kashmiri separatists in Srinagar has drawn sharp reactions from former diplomats, security advisors and strategic thinkers, given India’s declared policy on Kashmir of not allowing third-party mediation on the issue.

Of the experts whom News18 reached out to, some called the move - of bringing in an outsider apparently to mediate in the affairs of Kashmir - as “unfortunate” and a move “against India’s national interest”. A former diplomat even took a dig at Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, whose Art of Living (AoL) organised Bondevik’s visit, saying that Shankar seemed to be under the illusion of being “a great peacemaker.” Bondevik, who heads the Oslo Center for Peace and Human Rights, visited Srinagar on November 25, where he met senior Hurriyat leaders, members of chamber of commerce and of the bar association. A week later he visited Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and met the local leaders there.
Reacting to the developments, seasoned diplomat and former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, G Parthasarathy told News18, “We have a bigger policy to deal with Pakistan. Our relations will be settled bilaterally. There is an agreement which we have to always observe—the Shimla agreement.”

He added that there was a need to look “seriously” on the issue of Bondevik meeting Hurriyat leaders, and the manner in which this development came about. This was not the right way to negotiate. Bondevik at the time had said, “There are channels of communications open with Pakistan and backchannel talks that are never made public”.

Kanwal Sibal, former foreign secretary termed the meeting between Bondevik and separatists as “unfortunate”.

“It is very unfortunate that the sense was not shown by such people by interfering in very delicate foreign policy issues which goes against India's national interest,” Sibal said.

Taking a dig at Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, Sibal said, “He has illusion about being a great peacemaker internationally.”

Shankar had organised a peace meet in Srinagar earlier in March this year as well. The event ran into controversy after a section of the audience reportedly left the venue before the spiritual leader could finish his address. Some local dailies quoted several attendees complaining they had been "tricked" into attending with promised gifts of cricket kits, sewing machines and bank loan waivers. AOL representatives had denied the reports.

On the question that how it could have been possible for Bondevik to travel to Kashmir without permission of the government, Sibal said, foreign diplomats visit Kashmir and there is no bar.

“This was not advisable and that this was touching upon very core national security sensitivities of India reliable to complications in the bilateral relationship,” he said.

Sibal says that the Norwegian ambassador to India should not have allowed this to happen.

“I think this is part of loose approach against the separatists. This is not a happy development at all because it creates confusion about our foreign policy,” Sibal said.

Sources say there might be more meetings between Hurriyat and representatives from AoL.

“There are general elections ahead. We will have to be a bit patient. Developments can take place only after the new government is formed,” said a person involved with AoL’s events in Kashmir.

However contrary opinions, hailing the initiative, were also expressed. Among those who welcomed the move was former R&AW chief and Kashmir advisor to former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, AS Dulat.

Dulat said that the fact that Bondevik could travel all the way to Srinagar and meet Geelani meant that New Delhi was also on board.

He said that “there is no option but to talk”. He expressed optimism about Bondevik’s meeting saying “Scandinavians are masters” in settling disputes.

“They are masters of negotiations. They have always remained neutral and are very good at talking,” Dulat said referring to Irish settlement and other negotiations. “This is not a big development but certainly a positive one. Now we will have to see Mr Bondevik’s follow-up on this.”

According to some sources who were privy to the half-hour long discussion that happened between Geelani and Bondevik at the former’s residence, the “follow-up” on the meeting is likely to be with the “four-point” formula in the agenda.

Also known as the Musharraf formula or the Manmohan-Musharraf formula, the four-point formula is basically an idea of demilitarization, maximum autonomy, making border irrelevant, and joint management of the region.

It was the basis on this formula that the former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said, according to a leaked diplomatic cable, that the two sides had come quite close to resolving the Kashmir dispute. A final draft in keeping with the four-point template was reportedly being worked upon by the “back-channels”.

Most leaders in Kashmir, when the four-point formula was being touted as the key to resolving Kashmir dispute, including Abdullah and Mirwaiz, had shown willingness to work on it. But Geelani had been its most severe critic.

When asked about the reports that talks may be headed in the direction of the four-point formula, Dulat said, “It is the best point to start at.” “All the people including the separatists accept it. You might end at two points or two-and-a-half but it is the best point to start talks.”




Gupkar Declaration An Absolute Fallacy Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai Secretary General World Kashmir Awareness Forum Washington, DC August 27, 2020 On August 22, 2020, the pro-India leadership in Srinagar (Capitol city of Kashmir) issued Gupkar Declaration, stating that they “are committed to strive for the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A, the Constitution of J&K and the restoration of the State.” Let us analyze the Declaration dispassionately but from a Kashmiri perspective. The Gupkar Declaration says, “The series of measures undertaken on 5th August 2019 were grossly unconstitutional.” But Gupkar Declaration fails to mention that these measures also contravene the UN Security Council resolutions #122 and #126 adopted on January 24, 1957, and December 2, 1957, respectively. These resolutions prohibit any unilateral action targeted at changing the disputed nature of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. It is important to mention here that the United Nations Security Council Resolution # 122 “reaffirms the affirmation of its resolution 91 (1951) and declares that the convening of a constituent assembly as recommended by the General council of the ‘All Jammu and Kashmir National Conference’ and any action that assembly may have taken or might attempt to take to determine the future shape and affiliation of the entire State or any part thereof, or any action by the parties concerned in support of any such action by the assembly, would not constitute a disposition of the State in accordance with the above principle.” Leaving aside linguistic and strategic maneuvering, the Gupkar Declaration leads us to one conclusion: that the autonomy is the only option. But the present situation in Kashmir has also made it abundantly clear that the autonomy is unjust, untenable and not acceptable to the people of Kashmir. The Aazadi is the only catch phrase of resistance on the streets of Kashmir which does not mean autonomy but right to self-determination. When Arundhati Roy, internationally known Indian human rights activist was asked on October 3, 2019, what do the people of Kashmir want, she responded: “I don’t think that they could have been clearer. They’ve been saying it for 70 years. They’ve been saying it loudly. They’ve been saying it with their blood since 1990. Of course, it’s self-determination. You know, of course, it’s self determination.” Now the question arises why should some friendly country endorse the Gupkar Declaration which goes against the UN Security Council resolutions and more importantly against the wishes and will of the people of Kashmir. Here are few possibilities: i. It could be due to ignorance or disregard of inalienable right to self-determination that Gupkar Declaration is being invoked. ii. There exists apprehension that, whether on account of its present internal weaknesses or under external pressure, the Government of Pakistan will be forced to dilute its stand on Kashmir. iii. Being here in the west, we smell that the two ideas are being discussed between the few world capitols and Islamabad on one side and these capitols and India on the other. First, turning the Line of Control (LoC) into a permanent international border. Such an option is an insult to the intelligence of the people of Kashmir. It also cynically mocks their suffering. The people of Kashmir revolted against the status quo; how can they accept the status quo as a settlement? And second, autonomy or self-governance for Kashmir within the Indian Union. The policy makers of these capitols view the Kashmir dispute as a problem between Srinagar and New Delhi, which can be solved by improving their relations. Pakistan, they feel, can be mollified easily. They have consistently sought to dodge the question of sovereignty over Kashmir when that is the heart of the issue and it can neither be finessed nor be evaded. There seems to be an inherent incapacity to empathies with suffering populations unless some political advantage can be derived from a pretended concern. iv. There is also a serious discussion going on in many important Capitols to pursue the Musharraf formula to resolve the Kashmir dispute. If one did not know the authorship of the Musharraf formula and were asked to guess it, one would say that a fairly clever strategist has crafted it to confuse the whole issue and, in the bargain, to throw dust in the eyes of world powers. The world powers forget that ‘Restoration of Article 370,’ or ‘self-governance,’ or ‘Musharraf's formula’, or ‘Autonomy’ is a clear fallacy. Here you will have to rely on a provision of the Indian Constitution. All Constitutions of the world are subject to amendments and Indian Constitution is no exception. If not now, in the foreseeable future, like India did on August 5, 2019, this provision can be deleted from the Constitution and the move will not even need a debate in the Indian Parliament. The world powers also need to know that Kashmiris have had the experience of a limited autonomy, which was first practiced under a personal understanding between Nehru, then the prime minister of India and Sheikh Abdullah, then the prime minister of Jammu & Kashmir and later provided for by Section 370 of the Indian Constitution. It was eroded and eventually whittled away by the forces of circumstances. In conclusion, the United Nations resolutions on Kashmir acquire a continuing decisive importance from two crucial factors. One, they constitute the only international agreement freely negotiated between India and Pakistan on the future status of Kashmir. Two, they embody the only principle on whose basis a just and durable settlement of the problem can be achieved- -- the principle of freedom of choice by the people concerned. Therefore, it is fair to say that no settlement of the status of Kashmir will hold unless it is explicitly based on the principles of self-determination and erases the so-called line of control, which is in reality the line of conflict. Dr. Fai can be reached at: 1-202-607-6435 or gnfai2003@yahoo.com www.kashmirawareness.org