Rising Middle class of Pakistan

Rising Middle class of Pakistan, political and strategic implications

Introduction

Pakistan is often seen as a country with small   elite, a poverty-ridden mass and little in between. The reality is that Pakistan does have a large urban population, which identifies itself as middle class. The general perception still  held by many people, foreigners and Pakistanis, is that  is largely an agricultural, rural economy, where “feudals” dominate the economic, social, and particularly political space. Nothing could be further from this outdated, false framing of Pakistan’s political economy. Perhaps the single most significant consequence of the social and structural transformation under way for the last two decades has been the rise and consolidation of a Pakistani middle class, both rural, but especially, urban.

Quantification

According to an unpublished study from Pakistani market research firm Aftab Associates, that measured living standards in the country, 38% of the country is middle class while 4% belongs to the upper class. Combined, it amounts to a total of 84 million people; a number bigger than the whole population of Germany. The study considered middle class households as the ones which have a motorcycle, a TV, refrigerator, washing machine and at least one member who has completed school up to the age of 16. There is a broad agreement that Pakistan has witnessed considerable growth in its middle-income population. Pakistan’s middle-income population is around 50 million individuals by an income related measure, or just under 25 per cent of the total. Other definitional parameters will likely change the figure, but the trend we expect to see over the next decade is continued growth in this segment.  

In a 2011 publication titled ‘Estimating the middle class in Pakistan,’ Dr Dur-e-Nayab, an economist associated with the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), came up with a figure of 61 million people (about 40 percent of the population) for the country’s middle class. The categorization was on the basis of a criterion she called ‘expanded middle class’. On the basis of the same definition, the Indian middle class is estimated to be 25 percent of that country’s population.  

Many top tier local companies and multinationals have commissioned research studies on the size, value, trends and spending capacities of different social classes in Pakistan from reputable service providers, such as Euromonitor, McKinsey, Neilson etc to evolve their corporate strategy in the country.

Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) Secretary General was helpful and said valuing the country’s middle class market at Rs30 trillion appeared credible. Pakistan’s growing middle class of over 40 million people has resulted in consumer spending growth of 20 percent per annum.

The country has 18th largest ‘middle class’ in the world. Half of our economy is undocumented. In its Global Wealth Report 2015, Credit Suisse said Pakistan had the 18th largest middle class (6.27 million people) in the world. Unlike the more common practice of using income and the standard of living to define a social class, Credit Suisse used the measure of ‘personal wealth band’ to determine the middle class.

Attempts to quantify Pakistan’s middle class, largely based on income and the purchase of consumption goods, show that as many as 42% of Pakistan’s population belong to the upper and middle classes, with 38% counted as “the middle class”. If these numbers are correct, or even indicative in any broad sense, then 84 million Pakistanis belong to the middle and upper classes, a population size larger than that of Germany and Turkey. Anecdotal evidence and social observations, supplemented by estimates other than what people buy, would also support the claim that Pakistan’s middle class is indeed quite formidable.

Attempts to quantify the country’s middle class, largely based on income and the purchase of consumption goods, exhibit that 42% of the population belongs to the upper and middle classes, with 38% counted as the middle class. If these numbers are correct, or even indicative in any broad sense, then 84 million Pakistanis belong to the middle and upper classes, a population size which is larger than that of Germany.

Rise of the Middle class

In undivided, colonial India, the term “middle class” was associated with Indian officials, bureaucrats, doctors, lawyers and teachers who were linked to the colonial state. But while they displayed the values and ambitions of the modernizing English middle class — mediating between the rulers and the ruled — many of them came from aristocratic and landed backgrounds.

After the formation of Pakistan in 1947, the families employed in the colonial government were at the forefront of the national project of modernization, along with emerging groups such as urban professionals from India and educated families from smaller towns in Punjab. They are known as the “old middle class” in contemporary Pakistan. Their children don’t work for the state but tend to be employed at midlevel and top positions in the more lucrative private sector.

In Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city, old middle-class families distance themselves from the upwardly mobile through their genealogical ties to prestigious families, local notables and their display of affinity for the “lost” culture of the 1950s and 1960s. They share photos and stories of Ava Gardner staying at Faletti’s Hotel during the filming of “Bhowani Junction” and Dizzy Gillespie playing saxophone with a snake charmer — evidence of a period when Pakistan enjoyed a more favorable global reputation.

The old middle class sees Pakistan as being on the path toward modernity before the Islamization agenda of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq (1978-88) brought upheaval. Their nostalgia influences foreign commentators, who tend to showcase events, such as literary festivals, that glorify the earlier progressive history of the country.

Implicit in these portrayals is a vilification of the upwardly mobile groups whose more visible religiosity is viewed as the legacy of General Zia. It is these groups that constitute the new urban middle class that has emerged since the 1980s. In Lahore, many of them are second-generation migrants from small towns and rural areas in Punjab, products of the state education system of the 1980s — a time when General Zia gave religious clergy free rein and curbed political parties — most members of the new middle class are familiar with the discourses of Islamic groups. While many are sympathetic to Islamist parties’ call for social justice, and some have had affiliations with such groups, few are lasting members. Support for an Islamist party is often issue-based and transient, and in most cases, does not translate into votes.

The new middle class has a strong sense that the solution to Pakistan’s problems lies in becoming better Muslims and instilling Islamic values. But it is also conspicuous for its members’ considerable investment in the latest mobile phones and consumer electronics, along with frequent trips to Western-style shopping malls, megastores and markets in Lahore. Careful attention is paid to rearing children: using branded diapers instead of local nappies, buying clothes from well-known Pakistani labels and feeding them Western-style snacks, such as chicken nuggets and instant noodles.

Yet twinned with the desire for consumption is anxiety about such exhibition and how to sustain it. Most homes possess microwaves and mixer-grinders, but their owners use them sparingly and store them in their original packaging. They buy sofas to match what they see in soap operas and advertisements, but protect them with plain sheets that are removed only on special occasions.

Families on the poorer end of the new middle class visit malls and shopping spaces for recreational experiences. They rarely make purchases from such places and prefer to look for the same or similar goods in cheaper bazaars and wholesale markets. Their ability to find more economical deals becomes a way to distinguish themselves from the presumed decadent and self-indulgent upper classes.

Members of the new middle class covet government employment, which still remains a mark of status, but such work does not provide sufficient income to sustain their idealized level of middle-class consumption. Many in this group augment their state income through investment in real estate.

Many families in new middle-class circles have acquired their current status through money made by a relative in a semiskilled job in the Gulf countries or North America. The most significant waves of semiskilled labor migration from Pakistan over the past half-century have been for industrial work in Britain in the 1960s, construction labor in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf in the 1970s and 1980s and, since the 1980s, taxi driving, construction and restaurant employment in the United States. Pakistan received $20 billion in remittances in 2016, according to the World Bank.

The visible religiosity of the new middle class is often identified as the Wahhabi Islam of Saudi Arabia. However, it is not Wahhabi Islam but the globalized Islam practiced by Muslims in the West that better explains contemporary religious trends. Made familiar with Muslim practices abroad through relatives living abroad and returning migrants, many members of the new middle class have started incorporating them in their own lives.

For instance, Quran schools and religious study circles, where the Quran is studied with translation and interpretation, were introduced in Lahore in the early 2000s by returnees from the United States. Similarly, many women have replaced dupattas and chadors — the traditional ways of showing modesty in public — with head scarves and cloaks similar to those worn by relatives in the West, Saudi Arabia or the Gulf.

It is not so much the desire to be closer to the heartland of Islam that prompts these changes, but the desire to display a modern Muslim identity, a shift commensurate with their economic progress.

Denied the status of modernity in the local class hierarchy, these groups look for it through a familiarity with a global Muslim community. Just as the old middle class gains its modern status through a narrative that is used to explain Pakistan to the outside world, so the new middle class attempts to use its own connections to the West to assert its modernity.

Role of Middle Class

The middle class is increasingly considered a precondition of stability in the social structures, a means of mitigating inequalities in a society, and a pathway to growth and development. This idea has gained strength from the events in China and India where the burgeoning middle class is believed to be holding the future of these countries. It may be mentioned here that the importance attributed to the role of the middle class is not a recent phenomenon. For instance, Landes (1989) talks about England’s early dominance in terms of the English middle class of the 18th and 19th centuries. More recently, Birdsall, Graham and Pettinato (2000) consider middle class the backbone of both market economy and democracy in the face of globalisation. Likewise, Easterly (2001) after analyzing a large number of countries concluded that nations with a large middle class tend to grow faster, at least in situations of ethnic homogeneity. The US went through periods of impressive economic growth when the middle class was expanding at a significant rate.

“Thus it is manifest that the best political community is formed by citizens of the middle class, and that those states are likely to be well- administered in which the middleclass is large .Where the middleclass is large, there are least likely to be factions and dissension”.Aristotle 306 BC   

The above-stated stabilizing role of the middle class originates from the buffer role it seems to play between the polar tendencies of the lower and upper classes. Easterly (2001), for instance, shows that a higher share of income for the middle class is linked with higher growth, more education, better health and less political instability and poverty in a society. These qualities make a decline in the middle class a potential threat to economic growth and political stability. Esteban and Ray (1999), for example, show an occurrence of more frequent societal conflict in the presence of a weaker middle class.

Political implications

The middle class is increasingly seen as a group gaining political influence that can be associated with the progressively larger role they are playing in the public and services sectors. The middle class is also linked with the nature of government a country has, as shown by Moore (1966) in his classical work associating democracy with the middle class. This idea is supported by Collier (1999) when he studies various democracies finding the middle class to have allied with the lower classes to push for an inclusive political system. On the contrary, however, he also found instances where the middle class formed an alliance with the upper class putting up with a restricted democracy or even a dictatorship. A similar relationship was also found by Leventouglu (2003) when he observed an ambivalent behavior of the middle class during political transition. Depending on the situation, the middle class could act as an agent of change or work for maintaining the status quo. If the middle class believed that their children would retain their middle class status then they would not resent semi-democracy or even encourage an autocracy to block any redistribution. On the other hand, if the middle class is not guaranteed their status they would strengthen the lower class so as to push for redistribution under democracy. This ambivalent behavior makes the role of the middle class even more politically important, and as pointed out by Acemoglu and Robinson) the “decisive voters in democracy are often from the middle class”.

All other roles of the middle class granted, including those discussed above, the most significant is the one that links it with the growth and development of economy. Bannerjee and Duflo (2007) provide a useful summary of the relationship between the middle class and economy. Theorizing back t o Weber and using a vast body of literature, they delineate three reasons for considering the middle class vital for economies. These include:

(1)    New entrepreneurs emerge from the middle class who create employment and opportunity of growth for the rest of society.

(2)    The middle class with its strong values stresses on the accumulation of human capital and savings.

(3)    The middle class consumer is willing to pay a little extra for quality, thus, encouraging investment in better quality production and competitive marketing, which spurs higher level of production and leads to increasing income for everyone.

All these aforementioned factors make the middle class vital for any economy. There are, however, words of caution. Nirvikar (2005) and Basu (2003) while commenting on the middle class consumption pattern warn that although consumer spending enhances aggregate demand and stimulates the economy in the short run, it does not necessarily translate into higher sustainable growth. They also voice concern about the sustainability of these high levels of consumption, and the depressing effect they have on savings, and hence consequentially on investment.

As also pointed out by Tilkidjiev (1998), it is not sufficient to be wealthy to be in the middle class, this paper also premises that ‘middle income ’ should not be considered ‘middle class’. The middle class has a multidimensionality attached to it and any useful measure should attempt to capture it. The middle class has certain intellectual, political and social connotations, along with economic ones, that differentiate it from the middle-income. While middle- income is purely an economic term, the middle class falls more in the sociological domain. The concept of class has many dimensions, including: economic, like wealth, income and occupation; political, including status and power; and cultural, such as values, beliefs, lifestyle, and education. The middle class will demand better public services and thus broad-based improvements in governance. By the same logic, some argue that it will push for greater and ‘purer’ democratization.

Going by Pakistan’s own recent history, we can see middle-income groups exhibiting great variation in terms of their political and social positioning. For example, as researcher Ghazala Mansuri points out, while middle-income groups are generally thought to be more vocal in demanding services, this demand may not extend beyond their immediate selves. Karachi’s example is instructive in this regard wherein significant sections of the middle-income population have engaged in a politics of ethnic rights or targeted delivery of services, rather than some broad-based improvement in urban governance. The same holds true for urban Punjab as well, where middle-income groups who’ve supported the PML-N since the 1990s demand particular kinds of service delivery, but are content to obtain it through patronage, rather than programmatic politics.

Across the world, groups historically locked out of political power or upset with the status quo have sought to impact the world by mobilizing and contestation. Whether it was the industrial working class in 20th-century Europe, or late 19th-century reformers looking to overthrow gilded age corruption in American politics, a major component of their efforts required forming autonomous organizations that were driven with clear ideological goals. Eventually, the strength of these groups propelled their ideas into the political mainstream.

As of now, middle-income segments in Pakistan have created no such reform-oriented platforms, except of the Islamist variety. The other variants that do exist primarily seek to advance sectional or occupational interests, such as the Young Doctors Association, bar associations, or a myriad array of trader/business organizations. While further growth in the middle-income population is a near certainty, there is little in the present that can tell us about its eventual impact on political and social life.

Improved Security Condition

  Pakistan has managed to reduce deaths by terrorist attacks by a margin of two-thirds in the last five years. The improved security condition alone has convinced many international investors and companies alike to invest in the country. Being the sixth most populous country in the world, Pakistan has plenty of unexplored potential.

Numerous auto-manufacturers like Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault, KIA, have expressed their interest, while BMW has even revealed its plans  to launch cheaper models of its cars in Pakistan. Meanwhile, one of the world’s richest man and the founder of the world’s biggest retail giant, Jack Ma, has also Pakistan. Ride-sharing services like Uber and Careem have also managed to gain a stronghold in the country— a feat which wouldn’t have been possible had the security condition not been improved.

Fall in Poverty

The 2013 election was historic in the sense that they assured a smooth democratic transition, for the first time in the country’s over 65 years of independence. That has contributed in stabilizing the economy and Karachi’s stock market rose 46% last year. Just last week, the Pakistan Stock Exchange crossed an all-time-high of 50,000 points.

“Pakistan experienced a “staggering fall” in poverty from 2002 to 2014, according to the World Bank, halving to 29.5% of the population.”A considerable proportion of the population in Pakistan still lives below the poverty line but the situation is way better than it was a few years ago.

There is still a considerable difference in the living standards of the middle class between Pakistan and that of Western countries, like America. However, the American middle class is shrinking. In Asia, meanwhile, the middle class is expected to keep growing.

“A study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts that the bulk of the growth in the middle class in the years ahead will come from Asia, which will account for two-thirds of the global middle class by 2030.” Pakistan may have its own issues and scandals that continue to plague the government as well as its people, but if this report is any evidence, the past decade has undoubtedly been one of the best in the country’s history.  

Rise in the Buying Habit

“Official figures show that the proportion of households that own a motorcycle soared to 34% in 2014 from 4% in 1991, and a washing machine to 47% from 13% over that same period.”The flourishing middle class has resulted in a monumental increase in consumer spending, attracting international players from around the world. In December of 2016, Royal FrieslandCampina NV, a Dutch dairy company, paid an estimated $461 million to buy control of Engro Foods— the largest packaged milk producer in the country. “What we see is consumer spending is rising and a middle class coming up,” said Hans Laarakker, Engro’s new chief executive. Just a few months before that, Turkey-based Arçelik Group announced its acquisition of Dawlance Pakistan, and in the very same year, Chinese Shanghai Electric Power agreed  to buy a 66.4% stake in K-Electric Company Limited against the value of US$ 1.77 billion. According to the bank, to be a member of the middle class in 2015, a Pakistani adult must have a wealth of at least $14,413. At a rate of Rs106 to a dollar, this comes to Rs1.53 million. The bank calculated the total wealth in Pakistan at $495 billion, or Rs52.47 trillion. It used the IMF’s series of purchasing power parity to drive the equivalent middle class wealth bounds in local terms.

Makro and Metro have developed a new shopping experience in Pakistan. Hyper star gets better response. With the opening of store in Karachi at Clifton in Dolmen Mall, Hyper star has given a remarkable result in catching attention of customers. Despite down in the economy of Pakistan, the shopping experiences along with what these stores are offering. It is evident that consumer buying habit will take an exciting change. Now people will spend more due to incitement buying.

The presence of potential buyers in Pakistan has been observed by many international brands like Mother Care, Crocs and Monsoon who are working on having their stores working in the country. A 200-year-old British Departmental Store, Dabenham has been opened in Karachi. For big purchases like automobile, buyers are getting support of consumer financing schemes offered by banks and other financial institutions. Pak Suzuki Company showed a satisfactory growth. The same can be said of Mehran and Bolan.

Consumer spending is predicted to increase in 2018. Having population of over 200 million and per capita consumption of $836.3, Pakistan certainly justifies the potential for increase in consumer spending. According to a global resource on retail, per capita consumer spending in Pakistan has increased by 37 percent between 2006 and 2011.

Advertising in print and electronic media, discount offers, increased billboards and in store promotional campaigns all proves the consumer spending is definitely accelerating. Pakistan has opportunities for product expansions and market expansion. The marketers need to have the imagination to drive the consumer buying behavior to their products.

Pakistanis spent almost half of their household budget on food in 2012, the highest ratio in the world, a survey found. According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service in which 84 countries were surveyed. Pakistanis spend more of their income on food than any other country. An average Pakistani spends 47.7 percent of their house hold budget on food consumed at home.

On the other hand, people in United States spent the least on food, even less than Europeans and Canadians. An average American citizen spends only 6.6 percent of their house hold budget on food at home.

In Pakistan, where average consumer expenditures per person, which comprises of personal expenditures on goods and services, are $871 people spend $415 on food at home. In comparison, Americans spend nearly $2,273 on food. It is necessary to note that while US citizens spent a smaller amount of their budget on food, the amount spent on food is almost five times of what an average Pakistani spends on food. The clear difference could possibly be explained since the per capita income of Pakistan stood at $1,299 in 2012-13, while the per capita income of US was $53,143.

People in Singapore, United Kingdom and Canada spend less than 10 per cent of consumer expenditure on food. An average Singaporean spends almost 7.3 percent of their household income on food, while Britons and Canadians beat almost 9.1 and 9.6 per cent of their house hold budget on food. An average Indian spends almost $220 every year on food at home, which translates into 25.2 percent of their total consumer expenditure every year.

The sales data of different items, like Honda selling motorbikes in leaves one astounded about the purchasing capacity of Pakistani households. The spending habits of the middle-class households are transforming fast as they aspire to go higher on the social strata and enter traditional bazaars, modern malls or switch to online shopping.

With the rising in GDP growth, many households are joining the millions enjoying unrestricted consumption. Inspired by the performance of multinational fast moving consumer goods companies (FMCGs), and electronics, food, clothing, cosmetics, drug and auto industry firms aspire to enter the Pakistani market.

This vigorous middle class, which is understood to be an innovator, is expected to expand by over 6 percent annually in the next few years. The companies’ active in Pakistan will need to build adjustability into their systems to make quick adjustments to match the changing preference of consumers. It will also be necessary as more foreign companies enter the domestic market, escalating competition.

Besides closely observing the market for changes, the old players will have to monitor the actions of their current and future potential competitors that will drive companies to offer better value for the money spent. This dynamic middle class, which is understood to be an initiator, is expected to expand by over 6 percent annually in the next few years. The country’s middle class is experiencing a rapid growth, which is evident from the rising demand for consumer durables, education and health, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The central bank, in its latest report on the state of economy, said that the growth in the consumption pattern in the country is indicative of a budding economy. “Several indicators show rising consumer demand in the country. These include a rise in consumer financing, an increase in the sale of consumer durables (automobiles and electronic goods) and a sharp growth in fuel consumption,” said the SBP.“Furthermore, the IBA-SBP Consumer Confidence Index recorded its highest-ever level of 174.9 points in January 2017, showing an increase of 17 points from July 2016.”

While there are different parameters to count the number of people and households in the middle class or the middle-income group of an economy, consumer spending is one prominent barometer which provides a rough assessment. Pakistan’s middle class has grown rapidly in the last 15 to 20 years on the back of rising remittances sent home by expats and increase in foreign investment.

“The foreign investment, which came into the country after 2002, has had a trickledown effect on thousands of lives,”   adding that increased access to education and rising representation of people in political parties also reflected the growth in the middle class.   Pakistan’s middle class is often referred to in the context of the number of consumer goods it purchases, ranging from washing machines to motorcycles. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Middle East-North Africa and Pakistan Senior Economist Bilal Khan said that domestic consumption and consumer confidence are strong in the country.

“Monetary easing and lower energy prices can boost household discretionary incomes and, in this context, a strong and stable currency can also be expected to increase demand for imported consumer goods, both durables and non-durables,” he said.

On the other hand, in the central bank’s report, it was mentioned that electronic goods showed a sharp turnaround during first half (January-December) of current fiscal year, recording a growth of 14.5%, against a contraction of 8.2% during the same period of last year.

“Consumer durables like refrigerators (up 25%) and deep-freezers (up 54.4%) mainly contributed to this improved performance,” the report said.

“Furthermore, rise in energy supply in coming months, increase in consumer financing in a low interest rate environment, better market access for rural population, expansionary plans of leading players and foreign investment, all indicates a sustainable trajectory for the industry’s growth going forward,” it added.

Separately, consumer financing posted an increase of Rs37.6 billion during first half of the current fiscal year. Auto finance continued to be the dominated segment, while personal loans showed a pickup as well.

“The net credit off-take of Rs13.7 billion of personal loans witnessed in first half of the fiscal year is the highest half-year figure in about a decade,” the report stated. The SBP also highlighted a notable growth in the foods segment and a strong growth in the sub-segment of soft beverage.  .

 New Middle Class

The middle class   households are more likely to be found in urban areas, and are more likely to invest in educational attainment. This has historically been true for male members in middle-income households, and is now increasingly true for female members as well. Enrolment rates for girls in schools and colleges across urban Pakistan show remarkable improvement from just a couple of decades ago, and the bulk of this can be traced back to upward mobility into the middle strata. This particular transformation, however, has not translated into significantly greater female participation in the labor force. Nor, as researchers from the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives have shown, has it improved the gender gap in political participation.

Published by the Harvard University Press in 2017, The New Pakistani Middle Class is a book by Ammar Maqsood. She skillfully unveils ‘new’ modernity from the ‘lost’ modernity of Lahore, the cultural capital of Pakistan.

The author writes about the formation of the new middle class in Lahore while differentiating it from the old middle classes who have nostalgia of a modern Pakistan of the 1950s, 1960s, and party 1970s (mostly referring to the era of General Ayub Khan). The established old middle class is well-versed in UP-Urdu style speaking, poetry lovers, and have familiarity with urban life. Most of them are government officials, politicians, doctors, and teachers who started careers in the 1950s and 1960s. This class usually faults the Islamization agenda of General Zia-Ul-Haq and the subsequent emergence of Wahhabism for enervating the modernity which was characteristic and endemic to Lahore. Wahhabism includes various schools of thoughts influenced by Saudi Arabia and Gulf states such as Jamat-e-Islami, Deobandi, Jamiat-Ulema-Islam, Tablighi-Jamaat and Dawat-e-Islami, which is blamed by the old middle class as a threat to more syncretic and secular-oriented Sufi forms of Islam. This version of Islam is believed to be a more tolerant moderate sect.

The new middle class is mostly the second generation of rural Pakistani immigrants from rural Punjab. They are making financial leaps and their self-representation is influenced by ‘imagined’ outsiders (old-money class in Pakistan, and mainstream American society or an abstracted West). Piety (religion affiliation) has been shaping the new middle class, and this is usually borrowed from abroad (mostly west) so that they may not be labeled as being ‘backward’. The cultural intimacy from the West is a reflection of the identity issue of being ‘global’ Muslim especially after 9/11 to show that ‘global’ Islam is modern and inculcate new aspects of life. However, at the same time, they represent themselves through piety from Pakistani elite and old middle classes of Lahore.

The analysis of book is at the result of conducting a comprehensive longitudinal field work with female representatives of the new middle class who used to attend Dars classes at Al-Huda, an Islamic teaching institution run by Dr Farhat Hashmi. Females at this teaching institutes are apolitical and wish to learn ‘Asl Islam’ with the component of ‘identity crisis’ of being Muslim especially the image of Muslim in the West. The inspiration of self-learning of Quran is from friends and relatives living abroad to know about ‘global Islam’. Their way of learning global ‘generic’ Islam is relatively scientific and rational, though limited, without affiliation with a particular school of thought (Tafliq or Ghair-Muqalad). In addition, the class struggle is also one reason to attend such gatherings where new middle class differentiate themselves on the basis of piety from ‘liberal’ elite class. This elite class perceives the new middle class as ‘backward’. One of the key reasons is that this class borrows norms from Muslims living in the West in fashioning their own version of the Pakistani modern.

This new middle class has to be susceptible to influences of religious consumerism   Muslims in Pakistan are increasingly consuming goods and services which are consumed by Muslims in foreign countries, especially those in the West to show off their connection to the outside world. Religion and the market economy combine on daily basis to construct a modern Muslim lifestyle.  Muslim consumerism is due to Islamic identity crises, individual taste and neo-liberalism. 

Class categories transformed

As academics know, signifiers of social categories such as “class” are no longer fashionable and we work in an environment which no longer theorizes about classes of any kind. The political category of class has been replaced by numerous other categories such as “institutions” and other more generic and broader substitutes.

This is particularly the case in Pakistan, where while there is much literature on Pakistan’s over-determined military, there is some on the judiciary, media, gender, but little research and academic engagement with the social and structural transformation which results in how the nature of class composition has changed over time. The previous, more simplistic and simplified class categories such as feudal, industrialists, and “the working class” has not only been transformed but is also now even more problematic. In this academic environment, where there is little research of core social categories, trying to identify and calculate the size of the middle class becomes particularly difficult.

While a definition, and hence estimation of Pakistan’s middle class, or middle classes, has not been easy, the term has acquired much prominence in social and anecdotal references. Increasing references to the middle class — durmiana tubqa — both as a political category but also as an economic one, occur more regularly in the media. Often, Pakistan’s middle class is referred to by the consumer goods that it has increasingly been purchasing, from washing machines to motorcycles. But more importantly, the term is used for those having an active political constituency and presence. In many ways, the terms used in India after Narendra Modi’s 2014 election, of an “aspiring” or “aspiration” class — also somewhat vague but nevertheless signifying some political and develop mentalist notion — have also found some currency in Pakistan.

Girls shining

Data based on social, economic and spatial categories all support this argument. While literacy rates in Pakistan have risen to around 60%, perhaps more important has been the significant rise in girls’ literacy and in their education. Their enrolment at the primary school level, while still less than it are for boys, is rising faster than it is for boys. What is even more surprising is that this pattern is reinforced even for middle level education where, between 2002-03 and 2012-13, there had been an increase by as much as 54% when compared to 26% for that of boys. At the secondary level, again unexpectedly, girls’ participation has increased by 53% over the decade, about the same as it has for boys. While boys outnumber girls in school, girls are catching up. In 2014-15, it was estimated that there were more girls enrolled in Pakistan’s universities than boys — 52% and 48%, respectively. Pakistan’s middle class has realized the significance of girls’ education, even up to the college and university level.

In spatial terms, most social scientists would agree that Pakistan is almost all, or at least predominantly, urban rather than rural, even though such categories are difficult to concretize. Research in Pakistan has revealed that at least 70% of Pakistanis live in urban or urbanizing settlements, and not in rural settlements, whatever they are. Using data about access to urban facilities and services such as electricity, education, transport and communication connectivity, this is a low estimate. Moreover, even in so-called “rural” and agricultural settlements, data show that around 60% or more of incomes accrue from non-agricultural sources such as remittances and services. Clearly, whatever the rural is, it is no longer agricultural. Numerous other sets of statistics would enhance the middle class thesis in Pakistan.

Rise of the ‘youthias’

It is not only in econometric, or more specifically, consumerist, terms that the middle class has made its presence felt, but also politically. The “naya Pakistan” of today is dominated by middle class voices and concerns. The “youthias”, as they are called, a political category of those who support Imran Khan and his style of politics, are one clear manifestation of this rise, as is the large support in the Punjab of Nawaz Sharif and his Punjab Chief Minister brother, Shahbaz Sharif. The developmentalist agenda and the social concerns of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government which is ruled by Imran Khan’s party, and those in the Punjab where the Sharif family dominates, are representative of this new politics. Free laptops, better governance, more information technology, better schooling, better urban health facilities, jobs for the educated youth, the right to information, and so on, represent government initiatives to appease this political category.

Vague, expectation foundations from Europe and other western countries, that the middle class is necessarily democratic, tolerant and secular, have all come undone by events in recent years. The expectation that the middle class is necessarily “liberal” no longer stands.

In the case of Pakistan, on account of many decades of a forced Islamisation discourse,   one might argue that Pakistan’s middle class is “Islamist”, very broadly defined, and also socially conservative and intolerant, pro-privatization and pro-capital. Yet, social and structural transformation, from Internet access to girls’ education and social media activism, also results in trends that counter such strict formulations. While still probably socially conservative, contradictory counter-narratives would suggest that there is a large noticeable tension which exists within this category of the middle class which questions a simple categorization of its ideological moorings.

It would be trite, though not incorrect, to argue that Pakistan’s middle class is in an ideological ferment and transition, but its aspirations do not extend to groups and social classes outside its own large category. They are not interested in the working classes or their issues; they are comfortable making economic and political alliances with large capitalist landowners and industrialists, many of whom have close links with the military. At present, the politics of this middle class is a far cry from even a soft version of the term “progressive”. It is the multiple fractions within the middle class which have been dominating the political and develop mentalist agenda in Pakistan. It is going to be the contradictions within this middle class which will now set the future course for Pakistan’s economy and its politics. Perhaps from the fringes of this middle class, one could possibly expect the emergence even of progressive forms of politics.