Is South Asia next
confrontation front?
BY IRFAN RAJA
DEC 18,
2023 - 3:19 PM GMT+3
Afghan refugees settle in a camp near the Torkham
Pakistan-Afghanistan border, in Torkham, Afghanistan, Nov. 3, 2023. (AP Photo)
Since
World War I and II, regrettably, global peace has remained elusive. Notably,
the conclusion of armed conflicts often paves the way for new hostilities
elsewhere.
Primarily,
the arms industry thrives on war, leading global arms manufacturers and
powerful entities to frequently instigate and support conflicts.
Historically,
imperialists have employed the strategy of "divide and rule,"
fostering enmities to strategically fuel regional conflicts and wars.
A glaring example is Britain's
deliberate creation of "unresolved conflicts" between India and Pakistan,
such as Kashmir.
Similarly, the contemporary discord between Pakistan
and Afghanistan
revolves around the
colonial-era demarcation known as the "Durand
Line."
Since
the 1947 partition, India and Pakistan
have been embroiled in the Kashmir
conflict – an ongoing flashpoint with the potential to escalate into a
full-scale war. British journalist John Pilger once highlighted how former U.K.
Prime Minister Tony Blair simultaneously sold lethal weapons to both India and
Pakistan, shedding light on the arms trade as "business as usual"
even in the 1990s.
In
recent discussions, there has been a notable increase in tensions between Pakistan
and Afghanistan,
alongside the escalating potential for war between India and Pakistan
over Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir.
Interestingly, amid global powers choosing their battles, the Ukraine
conflict has taken a backseat, with the focus shifting to America's
new engagement in Palestine.
According
to many experts, the United States
is perceived to have faced significant challenges in the Ukraine
war, while both Israel
and the U.S.
are encountering multifaceted setbacks in Gaza. This perceived need
for a new war is attributed to the apparent losses in ongoing conflicts.
Notably, the substantial arsenal left by the U.S. in Afghanistan
upon withdrawal in August 2021 is seen as a stockpile for potential future
conflicts.
The current strains
between Afghanistan
and Pakistan,
stemming from the expulsion of illegal Afghan refugees by Pakistan,
are raising concerns among experts who see this as a potential pretext for a
new conflict in the region. In light of the heightened tensions, a crucial
question emerges: Is South
Asia teetering on the brink of a major war?
The Greater India
Project
Presently,
Pakistan
finds itself on the precipice of a major arms conflict, navigating challenges
on both its western and eastern borders, largely fueled by the Greater India
Project fostering proxies in the South Asian region.
The
country is currently engaged in a dual-front struggle against terrorists and
the emergence of new insurgencies like Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan,
a new group affiliated with the Pakistan Taliban, claiming responsibility for
the attack on the PAF Airbase in Mianwali. The swift activity of this recently
formed group raises questions about external support.
However,
these unfolding events go beyond surface appearances. The surge in insurgency
in Baluchistan
since Narendra Modi's government took office is not coincidental. India's alleged aim
to "sabotage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" has significantly
contributed to the complex landscape.
Back
in 2002, Pakistan
approached United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, presented him
with a “dossier” and requested him to exercise his leverage over India to “desist
from its illegal and aggressive activities” and terror campaigns in Baluchistan.
Despite India
discrediting the dossier, numerous propagandist campaigns against Pakistan
have been exposed, including a BBC investigative report revealing India's plans to
defame the country.
Turn
on any Indian TV channel or listen to any YouTuber, and a consistent theme
emerges: Pakistan is portrayed as the "bad guy" that should be
eradicated, echoing the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh party
(RSS) mantra of achieving a Greater India and Hindu supremacy.
Indian
writer and journalist Samanth Subramanian complied a long-read feature, “How
Hindu supremacists are tearing India apart,”
revealing the RSS mission of making a Greater India. Likewise, Arkotong
Longkumer's book “The Greater India Experiment: Hindutva and the Northeast”
unearths RSS's hidden objectives, one is to take control of Pakistan’s
“Gilgit-Baltistan and Jammu and Kashmir.”
Today,
far-right Hindu supremacy ideology has become a global phenomenon that has
reached Europe,
which is “fuelling rising divisions and the rhetoric in the U.K., U.S., Canada and Australia.”
Recently, the Canadian
government presented evidence linking Indian diplomats to the killing of a Sikh
activist, earning praise from right-wing Indian major Gaurav Arya. In the
context of global powers vying for hegemony in South Asia, the
ongoing Israel-Palestine war and growing calls in India to
"reach Gilgit-Baltistan," coupled with the Indian Supreme Court's
recent decision to end Kashmir’s special status, all contribute to the rising
prospect of an all-out war in South Asia.
A
recent Le Monde report revealed how India’s Hindu
nationalists are leveraging the Israel-Palestine conflict to their advantage.
Shockingly, the report noted that Hindus were saying: "What Israel is facing
today, India
suffered between 2004-14. Never forgive, never forget."
This
suggests that India
is positioning itself to capitalize on a comparable opportunity to make inroads
into Pakistani Kashmir. The developing alliance between India and Israel, which
endorses the idea of "State Repression and its Justification,"
underscores their shared characteristics, a concerning alignment, particularly
as Indian officials openly advocate for the "Israel model" in
Kashmir.
In
the face of these developments on its borders, how far can a nuclear Pakistan
ignore all that is unfolding on its borders? With the Taliban on the western
front and Hindu fanatics envisioning a "Greater India Project" on the
eastern front, the challenges for Pakistan
are escalating.
Love-hate dynamic of Pakistan-Afghanistan ties
Ever
since the Taliban have taken control of Kabul, Pakistan
has become a recipient of terror. Despite Pakistan’s
repeated warnings the Taliban in Kabul have failed to halt
the Afghanistan-based TTP’s terrorism aimed at Pakistani civilians, and on
military installations.
Recently,
a series of distasteful events are an indication that the Pakistani establishment's
Afghan policy has backfired. It is a documented fact that both military
dictators Gen. Zia ul-Haq and Gen. Parviz Musharraf's Afghan policies failed
badly.
It
is important to note that Afghanistan
has historically posed challenges for Pakistan;
from its refusal to recognize the newly formed state in 1947 to the
assassination of Pakistan's
first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan by an Afghan. In the current refugee
crisis, many in Pakistan believe in good faith that now, Afghanistan is
independent, so it’s time to rebuild it, hence Afghans need to be resilient and
resolute and they should feel the responsibility.
Regrettably,
the derogatory language, threats and irresponsible statements from Afghan Gen.
Mubeen are viewed by many in Pakistan
as mere point-scoring tactics, especially considering Pakistan's
historical support for Afghanistan's
independence.
Not
only Afghans, Arabs and Pakistanis, including Punjabis (whom Mubeen blamed and
insulted in the Pashtu language), are martyrs of the battles against Russia and the U.S.
Those fanatics
inciting hatred and exporting enmity on both sides are not people’s
well-wishers. As global powers are once again active in selling weapons, it’s
time to acknowledge the fact that any conflict in South
Asia would only bring destruction and
never-ending bloody war.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Academic, analyst and activist based in the U.K., Ph.D. holder
at the University
of Huddersfield
