Sunday, January 8, 2023

Top India Analysts Dispel "India's Size Illusion"

 

Top India Analysts Dispel "India's Size Illusion"

 

https://www.southasiainvestor.com/2022/03/top-india-analysts-dispel-indias-size.html

 

India's leaders and their western boosters have been promoting the country as an emerging superpower to counter rising China. They cite the size of India's economy, demography, military and consumer market to back up their assertions. These claims are challenged by India's former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman, former head of IMF in India, in an article titled "India's Size Illusion".  In a similar article titled "The Chinese Threat No One Is Talking About — And How to Counter It", Sameer Lalwani, a senior fellow for Asia strategy at the Stimson Center, has raised serious questions about India's ability to counter China in the Indian Ocean region. 

 

"Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's 2019 failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  These events should force India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

 

India's Illusions:

 

Indian government's former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian has enumerated and challenged arguments for what he calls "India's Size Illusion" as follows:

 

1. India’s economic size has not translated into commensurate military strength. Part of the problem is simple geography. (German Chancellor Otto Von) Bismarck (1815-1898) supposedly said that the US is bordered on two sides by weak neighbors and on two sides by fish. India, however, does not enjoy such splendid isolation. Ever since independence, it has been confronted on its Western frontier by Pakistan, a highly armed, chronically hostile, and often military-ruled neighbor. More recently, India’s northern neighbor, China, also has become aggressive, repudiating the territorial status quo, occupying contested land in the Himalayas, reclaiming territory in the east, and building up a large military presence along India’s borders. So, India may have fish for neighbors along its long peninsular coast, but on land it faces major security challenges on two fronts.

 

2.  Then there is the question of market size. As Pennsylvania State University’s Shoumitro Chatterjee and one of us (Subramanian) have shown, India’s middle-class market for consumption is much smaller than the $3 trillion headline GDP number suggests, because many people have limited purchasing power while a smaller number of well-off people tend to save a lot. In fact, the effective size of India’s consumer market is less than $1 trillion, far smaller than China’s and even smaller relative to the potential world export market of nearly $30 trillion.

 

Indo-Pacific Dominance:

 

In an article titled "The Chinese Threat No One Is Talking About — And How to Counter It", Sameer Lalwani, a senior fellow for Asia strategy at the Stimson Center, has raised serious doubts about India's ability to counter China in the Indian Ocean region. Here are a couple of excerpts from the article:

 

1. China has been building dozens of advanced warships that seem poised to head toward the vast body of water through which 80 percent of global seaborne trade transits.....Indeed, a deeper (US) partnership with India — the world’s largest democracy, on an upward economic trajectory, seemingly perfectly positioned to counter China on land and at sea — has been something of a holy grail for at least four U.S. administrations.......Yet what former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton a decade ago called a “strategic bet” on India does not seem to be paying off. Indian naval and political power in the Indian Ocean region is faltering, giving way to influence by Beijing. Many of these problems are of India’s own making.

 

2. There is increasing discussion and advocacy among China’s foreign policy scholars and former officials about an Indian Ocean fleet. Indeed, the idea is consistent with China’s efforts to acquire military facilities in the Horn of Africa, on Pakistan’s Indian Ocean coast, in Myanmar and in the UAE, which offers access to the Persian Gulf. China has also engaged in intelligence collection efforts in the region and increased its port visits and diplomatic presence.

 

India's "Accidental" Missile Firing:

 

India's March 9 "accidental firing" of Brahmos nuclear-capable supersonic cruise missile into Pakistan has raised serious questions about the safety of the Indian nuclear arsenal. Do the people in charge of India's nukes have basic competence to handle such weapons? Was this really an "unauthorized" or "accidental" firing? Why was there a long delay by New Delhi in acknowledging the incident?  Could Pakistan be blamed if it assumed that extremist right-wing Hindu elements had taken control of the missile system in India and fired it deliberately into Pakistani territory? Has the Indian government risked the lives of 1.6 billion people of South Asia?

 

Could this "errant" missile brought down commercial passenger planes that were in the air at the time of this "accidental" firing? Here's an excerpt from Bloomberg detailing air traffic in the flight path of the Indian Brahmos:

 

"Several planes passed through the direct trajectory of the missile that day, which flew from the Indian garrison town of Ambala and ended up in Mian Channu in Eastern Pakistan. They included a Flydubai jet heading to Dubai from Sialkot, an IndiGo plane going from Srinagar to Mumbai and an Airblue Ltd. flight from Lahore to Riyadh. All crossed the missile’s trajectory within an hour of its accidental launch, data from flight-tracking application Flightradar24 show.  Other international flights in the vicinity of the missile’s trajectory -- and within its range -- included a Kuwait Airways Co. jet heading to Guangzhou, China from Kuwait City, a Saudi Arabian Airlines flight to Riyadh from New Delhi, and a Qatar Airways service from Kathmandu to Doha, the data show. No advisory to pilots operating in the vicinity -- known as a notice to airmen or NOTAM -- was issued".

 

India: A Paper Elephant:

 

In an article titled "Paper Elephant", the Economist magazine talked about how India has ramped up its military spending and emerged as the world's largest arms importer. "Its military doctrine envisages fighting simultaneous land wars against Pakistan and China while retaining dominance in the Indian Ocean", the article said. It summed up the situation as follows: "India spends a fortune on defense and gets poor value for money".

 

After the India-Pakistan aerial combat over Kashmir, New York Times published a story from its South Asia correspondent headlined: "After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its Military".  Here are some excerpts of the report:

 

"Its (India's) loss of a plane last week to a country (Pakistan) whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter (a sixth according to SIPRI) of the funding is telling. ...India’s armed forces are in alarming shape....It was an inauspicious moment for a military the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check".

2 comments:

  1. LOOK AT CHAIWALA’S HINDOOOSTHAN !

    YOU PEE AND YOGI GOBARNATH, HAS BANNED HALAL CERTIFICATION !

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/how-to/why-yogi-led-up-government-has-banned-halal-certified-food-products/articleshow/105348724.cms

    SET ASIDE MEATS – IT IS VALID EVEN FOR NON MEATS !

    WHAT YOGI GOBARNATH DOES NOT UNDERSTABD, IS THAT EVEN SUGAR, IS A CHEMICAL DERIVATIVE !

    HUMANS CONSUME IN 2 WAYS – BY INGESTION,AND BY EXTERIOR APPLICATION (LIKE CREAMS/ LOTIONS/ SOAPS/LIPSTICKS)

    AS FAR AS INGESTION GOES, GOBARNATH HAS TO LEARN BASICS

    REFINING IMPURITES, CHANGING POTENCY & CONCENTRATION, INCREASING SHELF LIFE, PRESERVATIVES, BONDING QUALITIES,THE FEEL (STICKY/LINGERING TASTE ETC) – ALL REQUIRE CHEMICALS !

    TASTE,ECSTASY,GRATIFICATON = BIO CHEMISTRY,& SO THE LINK TO CHEMICALS IN FOOD !

    ECONOMICS & SCIENCE HAVE INTERSECTED TO PROVE THAT,THE CHEAPEST NGREDIENT,IN FOOD AND COSMETICS CHEMICAL FEED STOCK.IS PIG FAT & COW FAT !

    Y ?

    COW & PIG STOMACH IS AN AEROBIC DIGESTER & A MANUFACTURING PLANT,FREE OF COST,AS THE MEAT AND BONES & MILK,HAS A SALE VALUE !

    BUT PORK IS HARAM & SO,HALAL CERTIFICATION IS REQUIRED ! SINCE THESE ITEMS WILL USE SYNTHETIC CHEMICALS,& NOT PIG FAT OR ORGAN BASED OFFSHOOTS – SO THEY WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE !

    THUS SUGAR WILL BE HALAL.& SO WILL CREAMS ETC !

    SAME APPLIES TO HOUSE BUILDING CHEMICALS AND PAINTS AND FURNISHINGS AND SHOES AND CLOTHES !

    THERE IS NO CHEMICAL PHARMA PRODUCT,WHICH HAS NO ANIMAL FAT OR PART OR SERUM IN IT ! WHICH IS Y FROM 700 AD TO 1900’S,MUSLIMS USED UNANI MEDICINE !

    AND INDIA – YOU CAN ADD A LAYER OF NEW HALAL – THAT IS THE WORKING CAPITAL AND PROJECT FINANCE IS FROM ZAKAT AND AT NIL INTEREST RATE !

    THIS HALAL CERTIFCATION IS THE START OF THE ISLAMIC SUPPLY CHAIN,WHICH IS SELF FINANCING !

    MUSLIMS WILL CONSUME HALAL GOODS,AND THEIR SAVINGS WILL GO TO A BANK, WHICH WILL INVEST IN HALAL MANUFACTURE AND SALES ! IT WILL BE A CLOSED LOOP ! ONLY NEED IS POWER FROM GRID ! STARTING POWER PLANTS IS EASY – IF THERE IS A BANKABLE PPA ! IF POWER IS SOLD TO HALAL MANUFACTURING, ALL BILLS WILL BE PAID – WHICH MEANS THAT ANY IPP WILL BE VIABLE !

    OIC IWLL INVEST IN THIS ISLAMIC SUPPLY CHAIN AND ISLAMIC BANKING – AS THE MARKET IS 250 MILION PEOPLE !

    SO THIS IS A GENIUS IDEA ! IT IS THE START OF THE DESTRUCTION OF INDIA – AS THAT MUCH GST WILL EVAPORATE FROM CHAIWALA ! THE PROFITS OF THE ISLAMIC SUPPLY CHAIN WILL FUND SCHOOLS,HOSPITALS,COLLEGES AND INFRA ! NO TAX AND ONLY ZAKAT BASED ON EMAAN !

    THIS WILL ALSO GIVE MUSLINS CONFIDENCE IN THEIR MANAGEMENT AND ADMIN CAPABILITES ! THAT WILL START THE STRUGGLE FOR A NEW MUSLIM NATION -AND THAT IS WHAT CHAIWALA DOES NOT WANT.INDIAH MUSLIMS HAVE NO CONFIDENCE THAT THEY CAN RUN A NATION – AS THEY HAVE NO SKILLS OR EDUCATION OR EXPERIENCE – WHICH WAS THE PLAN OF THE HINDOO BANIA – BRAHMIN !

    TO MAKE SURE THAT INDIAN MUSLIMS DON;T HIT THE STREETS – RAW AND IB,DESTABILISE PAKISTAN – TO SHOW INDIAN MUSLIMS,THAT AN ISLAMIC NATION,CARVED OUT OF INDIA (AGAIN),IS NOT VIABLE.

    PAKISTAN IS FAR AHEAD OF INDIAN MUSLIMS AND MINORITIES AND HINDOO MIDDLE CLASS.TO BELIEVE
    THE LIES OF PANWARI BANIA SCUM,LIKE ZEE/ABP/AAJTAK, ON PAKISTAN,WILL BE UNFORGIVEABLE !

    THAT IS Y GOBARNATH HAS BANNED THE HALAL TRADE MARK ! Y DID HE NOT BAN IT FOR MEAT EXPORTS ? AS ALL BEEF MEAT EXPORTERS,ARE HINDOOS AND JAINS !

    CAN UNILEVER MAKE HALAL AND NON HALAL PRODUCTS ? NO ! SINCE THE RAW MATERIALS ARE DIFFERENT,THE OPTIIMISED WORK PRACRICES AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY,WILL BE DIFFERENT. ONE FACTORY CANNOT RUN 2 TECHNOLOGIES – IT MAY NOT BE VIABLE ! IN ANY CASE,A HINDOOO BANIA IS CERTAIN TO USE PORK FAT,IF HALAL PROFITS DIVE !

    SO THE HALAL SUPPLY CHAIN HAS TO AE SEPARATE SBU AND BETTER STILL RUN BY MUSLIMS (IN ALL KEY OPERATIONS).AIM OF CHAIWALA IS TO KILL MUSLIMS ENTERPRISE ! CHAIWALA WANTS MUSLIMS,TO SELL KEEMA AND SHERWANIS ! dindooohindoo

    THOSE WHO DRINK GAU MUTRAM,WILL NOT GET IT !

    Y LIVE WITH THEM ? MAKE A SEPARATE NATION !

    WHEN WILL INDIAN MUSLIMS AWAKEN ? IS TTHERE ANY HOPE FOR THESE FOOLS ?

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  2. THE STORY IS THAT THE INDIAN SUPREME COURT HAS PUT THE 1ST NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF CHAIWALA

    ELECTORAL BOND SCAM !

    QUESTION IS – HOW CAN IN LA-LA BANANA REPUBLIC OF HINDOOSTHAN – COULD SUCH A LAW BE PASSED ?

    NETAS IN LOK SABHA WILL PASS ANY LAW !

    COMPANIES ACT HAS LIMITS ON LOANS,INVESTMENTS,DONATIONS – BUT NOT ON EB ! HOW COULD SUCH A LAW BE PASSED ?

    THEREFORE,INDIAN LAWS SHOULD NOT BE FOLLOWED ! THEY ARE GARBAGE !

    IF EB NAMES ARE DISCLOSED – THEN SO SHOULD THE NAMES OF THE DONORS, AT ALL HINDOO TEMPLES IN CASH AND IN KIND ! dindoooohindoo

    ONLY A FOOL WILL THINK THAT NON CASH PAYMENT FOR EB BONDS KEEPS NAME OF DONORS SECRET ! THE BONDS HAVE AN INVISIBLE CODE LIKE ON THE US 100 USD LINCOLN BILL !

    DISCLOSING NAME OF BUYER OF EB IS OF NO USE !

    A BUYS EB OF 1000 CRORES AND DISCLOSES HIS NAME AND GIVES BOND TO BJP

    BUT A WAS PAID RS 1100 CRORES, IN CASH, BY B, TO BUY THE BONDS !

    SOLUTION IS TO STATE FUNDING OF “ALL PARTIES”,WITH 0.1% PER CENT VOTE SHARE !

    VERSE 1 - WHY WAS EB STARTED ?

    NOT TO STOP BLACK MOENY ! 20000 OR EVEN 2000000 CRORES IS A TADPOLE IN A SEA !

    AS I SAID `- BUYER OF EB IS A SHELL COMPANY !

    EB IS A BEARER NBOND AND THEN THAT BOND IS GIVEN TO ADA - WHO GIVES IT TO BJP WHO ENCASHES IN IN 2 WEEKS ! ADA IS ON RECORDS ! END OF STORY !

    SO THIS IS ALL BULLSHIT !

    THE REAL REASONS ARE 2 !

    1- BANIA JAIN PANDIT PARTY - BJP - WANTED TO GIVE A TAX REBATE ON A BRIBE ! SO CAME THIS SCHEME !

    ADA GIVES RS 10000 CRORES TO BJP ! ADA USES A SHELL COMPANY WITH A LOSS IN INDIA TO BUY THE BREARR BONDS ! NOW THAT SHELL COMPANY HAS RS 10000 CRORES TAX ASSESSED LOSS. THE SHELL GIVES THE BOND TO BJP AND BJ ENCASHES THE SAME.

    AFTER 3 YEARS ADA ACQUIRES THE SHELL AND SETS OFF THE TAX LOSS - SO A GAIN OF RS 3000 CRORES !

    THE 2ND REASON !

    BANIA SCUM PARTY REALISED IN 2018 THAT THE DAYS OF USING BHANG AND MOON SHINE TO BUY VOTES ARE OVER ! NOW YOU NEED A MEDIA PROPOGANDA BLITZ ! FOR THAT YOU NEED BILLIONS IN USD ! IN WHITE !

    AS CEC WILL CHECK THE NEWS ADVERTS AND ASK THE MEDIA FOR THR SOURCE OF FUNDS ! FOR BANIA BJP TO PAY BANIA ZEE - BANIO BJP NEEDS WHITE MONEY ! BUT THE BJP WANTS A SCHEME WHERE THE WHITE MONEY COMES ONLY TO BJP -SO THEY CHOOSE SBI WHICH REPORTS CONGRESS FUNDINGG TO BJP - AND TEHN BJP SENDS THE ED AND DRI !~

    SO CONRESS HAS NO MEDIA POWER ! CONGI USES SOCIAL MEDIA - WHCIH IS USELESS !

    NOW COMES THE POLL RALLIES ! FOR THAT CASH IS REQUIRED NOT WHITE MONEY ! THERE CHAIWALA USED DEMO TO WIPE OUT THE CASH AND WILL SCRAP THE RS 2000 NOTE SOON !

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON WHICH EVEN THE JUDGES OF HE APEX COURT MISSED - AS THEY DO NOT KNOW THE VERMINS THAT EXIST IN THE BJP !

    ADA USES A LOSS MAKING SHELL ,TO BUY 10000 CRORES BONDS .SHELL COMPANT GIVES BONDS TO ADA WHO GIVES IT TO BJP

    NOW THE BIONDS ARE ENCASHED BY BJP

    ADA BUYS SHELL IN MERGER,AFTER 2 YEARS ,AND SO,CLAIMS THE TAX REBATE,ON RS 10000 CRORES

    NOW BJP NEEDS 7000 CRORES IN WHIITE,AND CASH IN BLACK, OF RS 3500 CRORES FOR 2024 POLLS

    SO BJP USES THE EXCESS OF RS 3000 CRORES IN EB (IN WHITE), TO CONVERT THE RS 3500 CRORES IN BLACK INTO WHITE !

    SO BJP GIVES THE RS 3500 CRORES IN CASH TO ADA FOR THE EXCESSS RS 3000 CRORES OF EB (AND BJP KEEPS THE EXCESS RS 3000 CRORES)

    BIP HAS WASHED ITS CASH AT THE RATE OF 12% - AND ADA WILL COMVERT THE RS 3500 CRORES INTO WHTE AT NIL COST USING HIS "AGRI BUSINESS",AND THEN,REPEAT THE EB AGAIN AND AGAIN !

    SO ADA PAYS 10000 CRORES - GETS TAX GAIN OF 3000 CRORES + 3500 CRORES IN CASH !
    WIN WIN ! FOR BJP AND ADA ! THE BALANCE 3500 CRORES , ADA WILL DO 1O MORE CHURNS OF EB TO RECOVER RS 3500 CRORES ! SO ADA MAKES 3000 CRORES TAX GAIN OR NIL NET INVESTMENT !

    HOW DID THE SHELL GET 10000 CRORES ? FROM A MAURITIUS FUND AS A SHARE CAPITAL "ENTRY" ! WHO OWNS THE FUND ? THE "REAL OWNER"

    VEDIC MATHS !

    THAT IS THE GAME ! REAL GAME !

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