Pakistan’s
Conventional Response to India and Re-Establishing Nuclear Deterence By
Sajjad Shaukat JR180SS52
Very tension
escalated rapidly between India and Pakistan when on February 27, this year, in
response to the Indian so-called pre-emptive air strike near the town of Balakot, close to the border with Pakistan’s sector of
Kashmir, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down two Indian Air Force (IAF)
fighter jets and launched aerial strikes at six targets in the Indian Occupied
Kashmir (IOK).
Addressing a
press conference on the same day, Director General of Pakistan Army’s media wing, the Inter-Services
Public Relations (ISPR), Maj-Gen. Asif Ghafoor said that Pakistan Air
Force have conducted aerial strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) from
Pakistani airspace and shot down two Indian aircraft. One of the two Indian air force pilots was taken
into custody.
Regarding Indian surgical strike, Maj-Gen. Asif Ghafoor
explained: “There are only mud-brick homes. There is no madrassas.
There isn’t even a concrete house…Two of the dried mud structures were damaged
in the explosions…No one has been killed, no one has been seriously hurt…Indian
planes crossed into the Muzafarabad sector of Pakistani-side of
Kashmir…Pakistan scrambled its warplanes and the Indian jets released their
payload in haste near Balakot.”
Afterwards, journalists visited the targeted site of
Balakot and Islamabad also released a video which exposed the false statements
of New Delhi that IAF fighters targeted the camp of
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and killed 350 militants.
In the aftermath
of the false flag terror attack at Pulwama, truth about India’s surgical
strikes unmasked, when India top civil and military leaders failed in providing
any evidence in this respect.
However, the myth of Indian surgical strike was further
exposed, when DG of ISPR Maj-Gen. Asif Ghaffor, while referring to the
statement of Indian India’s
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj who admitted on April 18, 2019 that no
Pakistani soldier or citizen died in the air strike carried out by IAF across
the border in Balakot, stated on April 19, 2019: “After India
finally admitted that their so-called air strike carried on February 26 in
Balakot caused no deaths and casualties…Hopefully, so will be about other false
Indian claims [such as] surgical strike of 2016, denial of shooting down of two
Indian Air Force [IAF] jets by Pakistan Air Force and claims about F16…Better
late than never.”
While Indian and
Pakistani militaries stared at each other after 48 hours of a hot air show over
the lofty mountains of disputed Kashmir, the world watched with breathlessness,
as two nuclear armed neighbours slugged it out. The Cold War military strategy
espoused by General Andre Beaufre and Lawrence Freedman as well as many
who followed, had established that nuclear weapons were primarily for
deterrence and there could be no nuclear strategy which may be applied in wartime;
however they, probably, had not catered
for a modern day Hitler like Indian Prime Miniser Narendra Modi, operating in
post truth era.
Despite being
predictable, the Indo-Pak military standoff has raised new questions and
highlighted the efficacy of conventional military deterrence to forestall a
nuclear Armageddon.
In this regard,
first is the escalation ladder, despite previous thinking on Indian side that they could manage the escalation ladder
on a more predictable and gradual slope, current events after February 26, 2019
which have clearly indicated that the slope was neither predictable nor
gradual, it was almost vertical. Events on the emerging steep slope
climbed so fast that in first 48 hours, India resorted to strategic posturing,
and as stated by Pakistani leadership, India conveyed the intent of missile
strikes.
Pakistan
responded in the same coin and jumped the escalation ladder by many rungs to
show intent of retaliating with more missiles. Doval-Modi circus pushed
by some foreign powers and few jingoistic Generals in Indian military did not
realize that they had brought South Asia on the brink of a nuclear Armageddon
within 48 hours of the first skirmish.
How could Indian
headhonchos in South Block and Raksha Mantralaya contemplate such a drastic
move? This is a million dollar question.
While leaders of the Indian extremist party RSS and insane Indian Generals
are boasting about calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff and are trying to justify
their reckless strategy, they may now sit down and think about how Pakistan’s
conventional response and re-established nuclear deterrence within 48 hours.
Islamabad also displayed her ability to fulfill the intent of
politico-military leadership—do remember Prime Minister Imran Khan’s words, “Pakistan
will not think once, Pakistan will Retaliate…History tells us that wars are
full of miscalculation. My question is that given the weapons [Nuclear] we have
can we afford miscalculation.”
Besides, this displayed capability through Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF)
counter strike which has also established the new norms in South Asia,
irrespective of the bravado and threat of use of force, Pakistan will not only
retaliate to Indian aggression but also dominate the escalation ladder through
full spectrum of deterrence.
In fact, jingoistic
cabal gathered under the RSS ideology; what do you do with a narcissist Modi or
likes of Major-Gen. GD Bakshi, when you have intentionally built a mob of
millions nurtured through RSS warmongering. Current political leadership in India has put the absurd republic on a
hate train with a one way ticket to a nuclear crevasse.
We also need to know that some countries are providing ill advice to
warmongers in Indian establishment, as to why they pushed Modi and Indian military
establishment into a military confrontation with Pakistan? Whatever the
larger design, one thing is certain that these countries have no worry on
possibility of things getting out of control. If the aim was to embarrass
Pakistani military and create an environment of Indian hegemony in the region,
they have badly failed and Indian leadership must realize that it was Indian military
which got embarrassed. Now same countries are pointing figures at Indian
inability to project herself as a counter weight to China and become the
Sheriff in Indo-Pacific—main arguments being that Indian arsenal is obsolete, the
military needs more fire power, may be to entice India into a weapon buying
spree. Modi’s desperate remarks that
“if Rafale was there, the outcome would have been different”, is a slap on the
face of Indian military leadership-the 3rd largest military in the
world.
It is noteworthy that the fear factor, being paddled by likes of Gen. GD
Bakshi is about rise of Taliban in Afghanistan and how it will squeeze space
for New Delhi in the region. India had invested billions of dollars in
Afghanistan to create disproportionate space and launch her indirect maneuver
against Pakistan on the premise of the so-called Doval doctrine. Indian anti-
Pakistan policy makers feel that their maneuver has not only been checked, but
will be rolled back completely, some like Gen. Bakshi also project that loss of
strategic space in Afghanistan will start affecting the Occupied Kashmir and
Kashmir freedom movement will become more emboldened.
Another
important factor which has emerged out of these ongoing crises is the public
pressure on leadership calling for immediate action. It appeared as if entire region has become a theatre of absurdity where
emotionally charges public through social media gossip and anger started affecting
decision making by politico-military leadership. Public sloganeering and
barbershop gossip became a strong driver for a narcissist Modi to use such
irresponsible rhetoric like “Ghuss ke maren gay”. Did the international
community realize that Modi was behaving like a vagabond in these crises of
gigantic proportions and this ignoramus and ninny heading the MAD (Modi-Ajit-Doval)
circus has become a serious threat to regional and international peace? Can
this cabal of warmongering besots be entrusted with reins of the so called
“biggest democracy in the world”, armed with Nukes?
Nevertheless, saner
voices within India and international community must realize that when you condone
misplaced swashbuckling and lunacy of a modern day Hitler and encourage RSS
goons due to corporate interests, and when you look the other way on human
rights abuse of 12 million innocent Kashmiris in the Indian Occupied Kashmir,
this MAD circus will think it has gained legitimacy for anything.
It is mentionable that South Asia has become a spectacular
hippodrome, where 1.75 billion people have become frenzied spectators for their
own extinction. Surveys done by Indian media asked some absurd questions after
February 26 ‘Tree Strike’ by Indian Air
force, one option was “Dill mange More” and 70% Bhakts responded in favor of
it. These hate train drivers like Gen. GD Bakshi and Arnab Goswami pampered by
RSS political goons have brought South Asia closer to a nuclear winter.
For Pakistani public
and especially those who keep on questioning the defence forces for getting so-called
‘disproportionate share of budget’, these crises have a basic lesson.
Conventional deterrence and preparation for war is essential, as it is the only
recipe to ward off the threat of a nuclear war in South Asia. If Indian
military and Modi are crying like babies for more funds and Rafale aircrafts,
despite the fact that current defence allocation stands at almost 60 billion
dollars, as to why Pakistani military is criticized for a fair share of defence
budget which is seven times lesser than Indian allocation.
No comments:
Post a Comment