IS
IRAN ON
THE BRINK OF A NEW REVOLUTION?
BY HAMMAD SARFRAZ |
Design:
Ibrahim Yahya
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 13, 2022
KARACHI:
From the outside looking in,
seismic changes seem afoot in neighbouring Iran. While our own ongoing political turmoil has a stranglehold on
headlines and airwaves at home, the Islamic Republic has been rocked by
youth-led protests on a scale seemingly unprecedented since the 1979 revolution
that brought its ruling order to power.
Triggered by the tragic death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini
following arrest and alleged torture at the hands of Iran’s Guidance Patrol, mass demonstrations against Iran’s hyper-conservative government have been taking place and
gathering strength since September. Young women, especially from schools and
universities, are refusing to wear the hijab in solidarity for Amini and other
women who have allegedly suffered at the hands of Iranian authorities,
particularity those that enforce a strict code of ‘modesty and morality’. Both
young men and women have flaunted restrictions that call for gender segregation
while openly calling for the Islamic Republic’s ruling elite to leave power.
The response by the Iranian government has been swift and
strict. In addition to counter-rallies upholding ‘traditional values’ and
denouncing the youth protestors as ‘traitors’ – rallies authorities maintain
they had no role in – purported leaked documents revealed orders to Iranian
security forces to quash mass demonstrations using nearly any means necessary.
Clashes between protestors and security forces have resulted in
the deaths of more than 300 civilians and at least 33 officials. Many,
including the journalists who broke the story of Amini’s alleged torture and
subsequent coma and death, have been arrested while around 1,000 have been
charged by Iranian courts of "corruption on Earth" and "waging
war against God", which carries the death penalty.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi have
repeatedly blamed outside forces and foreign powers of stoking unrest while
downplaying its scale and labeling youth activists as ‘misguided’. But already,
there appear to be some cracks with senior conservative figures like Ali
Larijani calling for a re-examination of enforcement of mandatory hijab and
retired IRGC general Hossein Alaei suggesting the abolishing of the morality
patrol altogether.
Experts on the ground and abroad view the situation as
simultaneously unprecedented and a result of missed chances and missteps on the
part of Iran’s government. While approaching the developments with cautious
optimism for the Islamic Republic’s long-term future, they decry, however,
misplaced priorities on the part of other nations when it comes to the
goings-on in Iran.
Fear and uncertainty
Speaking to The Express Tribune, seasoned Iranian journalist and
scholar Fariba Pajooh said there is massive fear prevalent at the moment among
almost everyone from Iran, whether they remained home or abroad. “I don’t feel good about
the situation in Iran at the moment. But I’m out and I’m so thankful to be out during
this time. Still, it doesn't matter where you are. Wherever you are, you carry
your home with you,” she shared. “I too carry the fear with myself and I don't
know what will happen next.”
Pajooh stressed that for any civilised government, shooting or
attacking women and children should be a red line they never cross. “In Iran, the regime has already violated that line. Everything changed
after they killed people, after the government used force against innocent
people. Iran is certainly not going back to where it was two months ago,”
she said. “But we are not surprised at the reaction from the government in Tehran. It
was expected.”
Partly, for Pajooh, whose journalistic experience spans 15 years
across the globe and who had been sent to jail by Iranian authorities for a
considerable time, the reaction of the Iran government to protests was no different from many other
nations. “What we see now is naked violence against people. And it is not just
happening in Tehran but in many cities across the country,” she pointed out. “But
the regime does not understand that they are wrong.”
The reporter, who is currently a PhD student and graduate
teaching assistant at a university in the US, made a reference to the George Floyd case that rocked America in 2020. “Those responsible [for Floyd’s death] were arrested.
Apologies were issued and the country moved on,” she said.
According to her, the Iranian regime missed a chance in the case
of Mahsa Amini. “The regime and the Supreme Leader could have issued an apology
and the country would not have convulsed as it is now,” she noted. “But, of
course, it is a dictatorial regime. They have not done anything sensible or
right.”
The Iranian government and ruling elite’s reaction to Amini’s
death, according to Pajooh, reveals how ‘disconnected and insulated’ they are
from the ‘real world’. “They cannot see how the world is changing and how Iran needs to adapt. So, to shut the movement and the anger of the
people, they decide to use brute force,” she said. Comparing her own self to
the current generation of Iranian youth that is rising up against Iran’s
clerical regime, the journalist highlighted that they are more connected, more
savvy and more energetic and ‘certainly more committed and brave’.
“They are connected to the most powerful tool that is the social
media and it won't be easy for the regime to suppress this movement,” Pajooh
said. “The youth of Iran will not back off and accept the primitive way of life that is
being offered to them by the regime. They will not go back to the same
situation they were in before the protests, and the regime seems to be showing
no sign of backing off. Hence, Iran stands at a dead end.”
A sliver of hope?
Amid fear of further repression and violence, some Iranian
voices expressed cautious hope for Iran’s people and their future due to the scale and grass roots
nature of the present protest movement. Among them is Dr Elham Hoominfar, who
has extensive teaching experience in the United States and Iran and is currently an assistant professor at Northwestern University.
“I’m really optimistic. It’s a grassroots movement and it’s
really progressive,” she said while speaking to The Express Tribune. “Iranian
powers have used religion for their gain. After 1979, Sharia law took over
women’s bodies and lives. It separated them from individual freedoms and
marginalised them. The Iranian people understand that,” Dr Hoominfar explained.
According to her, many Iranians, especially the young protestors
currently standing up to the Iranian government, have been undertaking a
historical struggle to restore human dignity and personal and social freedoms.
“The slogan ‘Women, Life, and Freedom’ means that society cannot be freed till
women are freed. They want secularism, and religion should not be in power,”
she said.
Agreeing with Dr Hoominfar’s observations, Fariba Pajooh noted
that while claiming to be the guardians of Islam in Iran, the present regime had actually forced a generation away from
religion by its actions. “The current generation, perhaps due to the
restrictions, doesn’t want to follow anything related to religion. I have some
beliefs, but less than my parent’s generation. The current generation is
running away from religion because it was forced on them by the regime,” she
noted.
“So when the government brands the current protests against
religion and Islam, it is not true. It is not against Islam. It is clearly
against the dictatorship that has oppressed the people of Iran for decades,” Pajooh added. “It is about freedom to dress,
freedom to live and freedom in general. That's the slogan, people want a normal
life and not a regimented existence.”
Is regime change possible?
While the people of Iran may be ready for secularism, Dr
Hoominfar believed the clerics would certainly not give up power without a
fight. “They [the clerics] are in power because of religion,” she said. “They
have substantial economic, political, and social interests. That is why they
are brutally murdering the Iranian protesters.”
She viewed this conflict of social, political, and economic
interests between the clerics and the people of Iran, particularly Iranian women, as the central conflict in this
period. “That is why you hear the slogan, ‘Akhund (the cleric) should get
lost’,” Dr Hoominfar explained. She warned, however, that the clerics were only
one part of the problem. “Another goes back to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC),” she said adding that while these two social elite groups have
strengthened each other, they can also stand against each other.
To that equation, seasoned Iranian journalist Fariba Pajooh
pointed out that the Islamic Republic’s regime has the financial resources to
continue. “It continues to receive support from Beijing and Moscow. It
continues to sell oil through these channels,” she pointed out. “Under these
circumstances, I don't expect a conflict with the US, and Washington will not get into a military conflict or start an invasion.”
Dr Hoominfar voiced two fears: “First, more political
suppression and massacre. The ruling power elite has substantial economic
interests in Iran and wants to stay in power at any cost,” she said. To stand up to
that, the people of Iran need international solidarity, she stressed. “My second fear is
the existence of the ‘counter-movements’ that, with the support of foreign
powers, can again prevent the victory of a democratic movement in Iran,” the scholar added.
According to Pajooh, what has happened over the past few weeks
is a major step forward towards regime change. “However, regime change will not
take place at this time,” she believed. “This is the first major step toward
change in Iran and it won't be the last one. But the actual regime change is
not going to happen this time.”
Global disinterest
Despite the strength and scale of the Mahsa Amini protests,
Pajooh did not see the international community coming together and creating
policies against Iran at this point. “There has been some movement from Germany, a statement from Biden, but I cannot see what they actually
want to do for the people of Iran,” she said.
Uppsala University’s Professor Ashok Swain agreed with that assessment. “The
situation is quite serious and there is no doubt about that. The regime in Tehran,
with all its power, is trying to maintain its grip on the country and its
people who have been protesting for several weeks now. Despite the force being
used against the people of Tehran, the protesters are getting stronger,” he noted.
He admitted, however, that the international community hasn't
had any logical approach or policy towards Iran. “Since the US withdrew from the nuclear deal signed during the Obama era, the
West has not been coherent. Iran has been left in isolation and none of the efforts, so far have
resulted in creating any positive progress,” he said. “There is now a clear
credibility gap between the people of Iran and the West. Hence, those protesting in the streets of Iran, perhaps have very little hope of support from the West.”
Prof Swain added that on the other hand, the regime is doing
everything in its power to present the ongoing protests as a Western-backed
plot to unseat the clerics. “They are trying to brand the protests as against
the values that represent Islam. For the people of Iran, it is entirely against oppression and primitive ideologies. In
short, the regime is legitimising its actions against the citizens by branding
the protests as a Western plot.”
Prof Swain also pointed out the fact that the protesters don't
have clear leadership. “In order to change things in Iran, a coordinated movement would be needed. Even while this
current uprising has gained considerable momentum, it lacks strong leadership
that can challenge the regime,” he said. “The protesters, as we know, don't
have direct or tangible international support but there is anger and
resentment. This makes the situation more volatile than it seems from the
outside.”
All in all, Prof Swain saw the present situation as very
difficult for the people of Iran. “The government in Tehran is
waging a war against its own people. With little hope for international
mediation, the regime, without a doubt, will exercise maximum power and force
against the protestors. And if it manages to crush the uprising, it will become
even more ideologically rigid than it is at this point,” he said.
According to Prof Swain, the West has different parameters to
deal with such situations. “If this was an uprising in a former Soviet State or Eastern Europe, you would have seen a more engaged media and the international
community. It is hypocrisy on display. We live in a world that has different
standards for different situations,” he said. “There is very little equality of
respect or equality of concern for the people of Iran. At the international level, I think the global community is
very divided. The world lacks unanimity on the level of support it needs to
offer to those who stand up for democracy, stand up for human rights and stand
up for the rights of minorities.”
He also pointed out that Western priorities vis-à-vis Iran are presently misplaced. “Iran's supply of drones to Russia has become a bigger issue than what is happening inside Iran.” But that's not new or unexpected, he added. “Examine the
global reaction to deaths and violations taking place in Burma. A huge humanitarian disaster is taking place for more than two
years in the Tigray War. More than 600,000 people have been killed. Millions
have been kept under some kind of sanctions regime and they are not able to
access food and medicines but the international community is totally silent on
this.”
View from abroad
Despite the apparent global disinterest in Iran and the attempts by its government to downplay the unrest,
foreign experts saw the current movement as very different from other recent
protests in the country.
Speaking to The Express Tribune, former adviser to an Australian
government minister and a shadow minister, Dr Claude Rakisits, agreed that this
is a very different sort of protest from the previous one. “This one probably
presents the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since its
foundation in 1979. But more importantly, this one is led by women and girls,
who have been joined by men and people from all walks of life and all parts of
Iran,” he said.
“Whether it will succeed is difficult to tell at this point. The
last massive protest in 2009 against the rigged presidential elections did
after all go on for four months before collapsing,” noted Dr Rakisits, who is
an honorary associate professor at the Australian National University and Deakin University. “[But] while it was sparked off by the death in custody of
Mahsa Amini, it has since ballooned from anti-hijab protest to a
counter-revolution demanding the end of the Islamic Republic.”
That said, Dr Rakisits voiced alarm that after weeks of protests
more than 326 people, with quite a number of them children, were killed by the
security and police forces using live ammunition. “This is before the regime
has deployed in full force the ruthless IRGC. So I expect things to get much
worse before they settle down.” He explained that the IRGC's raison d'être is
the protection of the Islamic Revolution. “Put differently, if there is no
longer an Islamic regime there is no longer any need for the IRGC. So, for the
IRGC, the protests must not become an existential threat to their corporate
interests.”
When asked, Dr Rakisits disagreed that the global community, the
West in particular, is unconcerned with developments in Iran. “Ukraine and all developments associated with it do take a lot of the
western media attention. However, this doesn't mean that the global community
doesn't care about the protests. It's not mutually exclusive,” he stressed.
According to him, a big problem is that it is virtually impossible for the
international media to go into Iran to report on what is happening. “Most of the world's
information comes from social media platforms, and these are restricted in any
case.”
That said, he admitted that there is little the global community
can do to prevent repression by Iran’s government. “With Iran, for all intents and purposes, a part of the Russia-China axis,
we could expect support from China and other Islamic countries in the Human Rights Council if the
situation came up for discussion. Any discussion on this issue in the UN
Security Council would be guillotined by China and/or Russia, and possibly others as well,” Dr Rakisits said.
The sanctions question
On the topic of global assistance and punitive measures, Dr
Elham Hoominfar stressed that indiscriminate maximum sanctions or any attempts
that hurt the Iranian people are not right. “Targeted sanctions on the
revolutionary guards and the regime’s top figures would be more effective,” she
said, while urging the global community to ‘let people in Iran decide the future of Iran’. “We need international support and solidarity, particularly
from grassroots movements. But it is the Iranian people who should decide about
their future, not foreign governments,” she said.
Australia’s Dr Claude Rakisits, when asked the same, admitted that there
has indeed been a certain degree of isolation of the people of Iran. “However, even with the Iranian clerical regime trying to
further cut the Iranian people off from the rest of the world by limiting
access to the internet and various social media platforms, it has not been able
to stop the outside world from finding out what is really happening inside
Iran,” he said.
While voices from Iran have been critical of sanctions and their
effects, other international groups and activists see targeted sanctions as a
useful tool to punish the regime. As opposed to blanket sanctions, the Human
Rights Foundation has welcomed the increase in the use of targeted sanctions
toward Iran’s regime, especially in response to grave human rights
violations, HRF Chief Advocacy Officer Roberto González told The Express
Tribune.
“Both the US and the UK have sanctioned the morality police in Iran for its abuse and violence against Iranian women and the
violation of the rights of peaceful protestors,” González said. Asked what the
global community can do, he suggested: “Democratic governments can impose
sanctions, make statements against the Iranian regime’s oppression, and engage
in a diplomatic boycott of Iran’s regime. And the wider public can take action and advocate for
women in Iran, by sharing stories, amplifying voices from those on the
ground, and supporting NGOs and civil society actors working on these issues.”
On a question about the isolation of the Iranian people, Human
Rights Foundation Chief Advocacy Officer Roberto González said we must continue
to stay informed, amplify Iranian women’s voices, and report on the deaths,
internet censorship, and other human rights abuses committed by Iran’s regime. “As long as the global community continues to share
the stories of the women on the frontlines of this revolution, they are not
isolating the Iranian people. We need to show support and solidarity with them,
and ensure that we continue to expose the regime’s oppressive treatment of
women,” he added.
Speaking on the issue of sanctions, a senior European diplomat
with considerable insights on Tehran said the increase of the international
sanctions in the last years up to now are mostly due to the nuclear file, which
is, at this stage, the most pressing issue for the international community.
“Unfortunately, after Trump's decision to leave JCPOA in 2018,
despite many attempts to restore it, talks have failed for many reasons. As of
today, the geopolitical scenario has changed considerably. The war in Ukraine has de facto strengthened the relationships between Moscow and Tehran. The
Iranian circle of power around Khamenai is more determined to pursue the
“looking to the east” policy, by strengthening relationships with China and the countries of the region,” shared the diplomat, who
wished to remain anonymous due to established protocols.
The diplomat said Iran’s signing of the memorandum to join as a permanent member the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was highly significant. “In this situation it
is difficult today to talk again about nuclear negotiations with Tehran when
the echo of the wave of protests is still present in the international media.”
The diplomat also said it is worth noting that opponents of
nuclear negotiations, through their organisations and their influence in the
media, have taken the opportunity and are exploiting the situation to try to
block any possible return to such negotiations. “In any case, balancing
necessary contacts with Tehran to restart negotiations while maintaining a condemnation of the
Iranian Government for the repression against protesters is going to be a
difficult task, at least in the short term. Only at a later stage it will be
possible to assess the possibility of the return to the nuclear talks.”
Khamenai’s successor
As protests wage on, reports have suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenai’s son Mojtaba will most likely
succeed him on account of his ailing health. Against the backdrop of unrest,
The Express Tribune asked foreign observers their views on the possible
transition.
According to HRF’s Roberto González it
is almost certain that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, will continue the
tyrannical regime that oppresses women, commits human rights abuses, and kills
peaceful protestors. “Given the current situation, we at the HRF are concerned
about and condemn the continuation of the crackdown on demonstrators and the
merciless killing of civilians. However, we also believe that Iran is at a
turning point — one which we hope will pave the way for a transition to
democracy in the country,” he said.
Australia’s Dr Claude Rakisits, however, did not think it is a given that
Khamenei's son is going to succeed as the supreme leader of the Islamic
Revolution. “On the contrary, the massive uprising has diminished his chances
because his selection would further enrage the protesters. Moreover, it would
seem that the IRGC would prefer to have President Ebrahim Raisi as the
successor, someone whom they feel they could more easily control.”
According to him, the only good news for Iranian people is that
the "morality police" has lost its fear clout and it will never be
able to regain it. “Of course, the regime also knows that if it loosens the
rules on the wearing of the hijab the protesters will demand even more. And the
protesters know that the regime is fully aware of this. All in all, the
Ayatollahs can't win this one in the long run. And they would know this
privately.”
According to the senior European diplomat who spoke on condition
of anonymity, the question of the succession of Khamenei is a very complex
issue. “There are many speculations in this regard. The possibility that
Mojtaba would replace him in due time is one of them. However, the history of
the Islamic Republic would advise caution in making predictions,” he said.
“There is no doubt that the entire process will be managed in accordance with
all centers of power, especially IRGC and the security apparatus. Whatever the
outcome of the process, undoubtedly it will affect the future of the country
and the region as well.”
A clerical view
Speaking to The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity, a
senior Iranian cleric reiterated the stance of the nation’s supreme leader and
president on the ongoing protests. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing
another attempt by the West and those who are part of the disintegrating
Western world order to destabilise the Islamic state by sponsoring and
triggering protests,” he maintained. The protestors, the cleric alleged, are ‘backed
by Western machinery’ and so, he insisted, the Iranian government had “no
reason to legitimise the sponsored conspiracy against the Islamic Republic and
what it stands for – the faith.”
“There is no space for such antics inside Iran,” the cleric stressed, adding that the Iranian government and
lawmakers have expressed their support for strong action against the
protesters. “They [the protestors] will be taught an exemplary lesson if they
don’t comply,” he warned. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2386020/is-iran-on-the-brink-of-a-new-revolution
