IS IRAN ON THE BRINK OF A NEW REVOLUTION?

 

IS IRAN ON THE BRINK OF A NEW REVOLUTION?

   

 

BY HAMMAD SARFRAZ |

Design: Ibrahim Yahya

   

PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 13, 2022

KARACHI:

From the outside looking in, seismic changes seem afoot in neighbouring Iran. While our own ongoing political turmoil has a stranglehold on headlines and airwaves at home, the Islamic Republic has been rocked by youth-led protests on a scale seemingly unprecedented since the 1979 revolution that brought its ruling order to power.

Triggered by the tragic death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini following arrest and alleged torture at the hands of Iran’s Guidance Patrol, mass demonstrations against Iran’s hyper-conservative government have been taking place and gathering strength since September. Young women, especially from schools and universities, are refusing to wear the hijab in solidarity for Amini and other women who have allegedly suffered at the hands of Iranian authorities, particularity those that enforce a strict code of ‘modesty and morality’. Both young men and women have flaunted restrictions that call for gender segregation while openly calling for the Islamic Republic’s ruling elite to leave power.

The response by the Iranian government has been swift and strict. In addition to counter-rallies upholding ‘traditional values’ and denouncing the youth protestors as ‘traitors’ – rallies authorities maintain they had no role in – purported leaked documents revealed orders to Iranian security forces to quash mass demonstrations using nearly any means necessary.

Clashes between protestors and security forces have resulted in the deaths of more than 300 civilians and at least 33 officials. Many, including the journalists who broke the story of Amini’s alleged torture and subsequent coma and death, have been arrested while around 1,000 have been charged by Iranian courts of "corruption on Earth" and "waging war against God", which carries the death penalty.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi have repeatedly blamed outside forces and foreign powers of stoking unrest while downplaying its scale and labeling youth activists as ‘misguided’. But already, there appear to be some cracks with senior conservative figures like Ali Larijani calling for a re-examination of enforcement of mandatory hijab and retired IRGC general Hossein Alaei suggesting the abolishing of the morality patrol altogether.

Experts on the ground and abroad view the situation as simultaneously unprecedented and a result of missed chances and missteps on the part of Iran’s government. While approaching the developments with cautious optimism for the Islamic Republic’s long-term future, they decry, however, misplaced priorities on the part of other nations when it comes to the goings-on in Iran.

Fear and uncertainty

Speaking to The Express Tribune, seasoned Iranian journalist and scholar Fariba Pajooh said there is massive fear prevalent at the moment among almost everyone from Iran, whether they remained home or abroad. “I don’t feel good about the situation in Iran at the moment. But I’m out and I’m so thankful to be out during this time. Still, it doesn't matter where you are. Wherever you are, you carry your home with you,” she shared. “I too carry the fear with myself and I don't know what will happen next.”

Pajooh stressed that for any civilised government, shooting or attacking women and children should be a red line they never cross. “In Iran, the regime has already violated that line. Everything changed after they killed people, after the government used force against innocent people. Iran is certainly not going back to where it was two months ago,” she said. “But we are not surprised at the reaction from the government in Tehran. It was expected.”

Partly, for Pajooh, whose journalistic experience spans 15 years across the globe and who had been sent to jail by Iranian authorities for a considerable time, the reaction of the Iran government to protests was no different from many other nations. “What we see now is naked violence against people. And it is not just happening in Tehran but in many cities across the country,” she pointed out. “But the regime does not understand that they are wrong.”

The reporter, who is currently a PhD student and graduate teaching assistant at a university in the US, made a reference to the George Floyd case that rocked America in 2020. “Those responsible [for Floyd’s death] were arrested. Apologies were issued and the country moved on,” she said.

According to her, the Iranian regime missed a chance in the case of Mahsa Amini. “The regime and the Supreme Leader could have issued an apology and the country would not have convulsed as it is now,” she noted. “But, of course, it is a dictatorial regime. They have not done anything sensible or right.”

The Iranian government and ruling elite’s reaction to Amini’s death, according to Pajooh, reveals how ‘disconnected and insulated’ they are from the ‘real world’. “They cannot see how the world is changing and how Iran needs to adapt. So, to shut the movement and the anger of the people, they decide to use brute force,” she said. Comparing her own self to the current generation of Iranian youth that is rising up against Iran’s clerical regime, the journalist highlighted that they are more connected, more savvy and more energetic and ‘certainly more committed and brave’.

“They are connected to the most powerful tool that is the social media and it won't be easy for the regime to suppress this movement,” Pajooh said. “The youth of Iran will not back off and accept the primitive way of life that is being offered to them by the regime. They will not go back to the same situation they were in before the protests, and the regime seems to be showing no sign of backing off. Hence, Iran stands at a dead end.”

A sliver of hope?

Amid fear of further repression and violence, some Iranian voices expressed cautious hope for Iran’s people and their future due to the scale and grass roots nature of the present protest movement. Among them is Dr Elham Hoominfar, who has extensive teaching experience in the United States and Iran and is currently an assistant professor at Northwestern University.

“I’m really optimistic. ​​It’s a grassroots movement and it’s really progressive,” she said while speaking to The Express Tribune. “Iranian powers have used religion for their gain. After 1979, Sharia law took over women’s bodies and lives. It separated them from individual freedoms and marginalised them. The Iranian people understand that,” Dr Hoominfar explained.

According to her, many Iranians, especially the young protestors currently standing up to the Iranian government, have been undertaking a historical struggle to restore human dignity and personal and social freedoms. “The slogan ‘Women, Life, and Freedom’ means that society cannot be freed till women are freed. They want secularism, and religion should not be in power,” she said.

Agreeing with Dr Hoominfar’s observations, Fariba Pajooh noted that while claiming to be the guardians of Islam in Iran, the present regime had actually forced a generation away from religion by its actions. “The current generation, perhaps due to the restrictions, doesn’t want to follow anything related to religion. I have some beliefs, but less than my parent’s generation. The current generation is running away from religion because it was forced on them by the regime,” she noted.

“So when the government brands the current protests against religion and Islam, it is not true. It is not against Islam. It is clearly against the dictatorship that has oppressed the people of Iran for decades,” Pajooh added. “It is about freedom to dress, freedom to live and freedom in general. That's the slogan, people want a normal life and not a regimented existence.”

Is regime change possible?

While the people of Iran may be ready for secularism, Dr Hoominfar believed the clerics would certainly not give up power without a fight. “They [the clerics] are in power because of religion,” she said. “They have substantial economic, political, and social interests. That is why they are brutally murdering the Iranian protesters.”

She viewed this conflict of social, political, and economic interests between the clerics and the people of Iran, particularly Iranian women, as the central conflict in this period. “That is why you hear the slogan, ‘Akhund (the cleric) should get lost’,” Dr Hoominfar explained. She warned, however, that the clerics were only one part of the problem. “Another goes back to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” she said adding that while these two social elite groups have strengthened each other, they can also stand against each other.

To that equation, seasoned Iranian journalist Fariba Pajooh pointed out that the Islamic Republic’s regime has the financial resources to continue. “It continues to receive support from Beijing and Moscow. It continues to sell oil through these channels,” she pointed out. “Under these circumstances, I don't expect a conflict with the US, and Washington will not get into a military conflict or start an invasion.”

Dr Hoominfar voiced two fears: “First, more political suppression and massacre. The ruling power elite has substantial economic interests in Iran and wants to stay in power at any cost,” she said. To stand up to that, the people of Iran need international solidarity, she stressed. “My second fear is the existence of the ‘counter-movements’ that, with the support of foreign powers, can again prevent the victory of a democratic movement in Iran,” the scholar added.

According to Pajooh, what has happened over the past few weeks is a major step forward towards regime change. “However, regime change will not take place at this time,” she believed. “This is the first major step toward change in Iran and it won't be the last one. But the actual regime change is not going to happen this time.”

Global disinterest

Despite the strength and scale of the Mahsa Amini protests, Pajooh did not see the international community coming together and creating policies against Iran at this point. “There has been some movement from Germany, a statement from Biden, but I cannot see what they actually want to do for the people of Iran,” she said.

Uppsala University’s Professor Ashok Swain agreed with that assessment. “The situation is quite serious and there is no doubt about that. The regime in Tehran, with all its power, is trying to maintain its grip on the country and its people who have been protesting for several weeks now. Despite the force being used against the people of Tehran, the protesters are getting stronger,” he noted.

He admitted, however, that the international community hasn't had any logical approach or policy towards Iran. “Since the US withdrew from the nuclear deal signed during the Obama era, the West has not been coherent. Iran has been left in isolation and none of the efforts, so far have resulted in creating any positive progress,” he said. “There is now a clear credibility gap between the people of Iran and the West. Hence, those protesting in the streets of Iran, perhaps have very little hope of support from the West.”

Prof Swain added that on the other hand, the regime is doing everything in its power to present the ongoing protests as a Western-backed plot to unseat the clerics. “They are trying to brand the protests as against the values that represent Islam. For the people of Iran, it is entirely against oppression and primitive ideologies. In short, the regime is legitimising its actions against the citizens by branding the protests as a Western plot.”

Prof Swain also pointed out the fact that the protesters don't have clear leadership. “In order to change things in Iran, a coordinated movement would be needed. Even while this current uprising has gained considerable momentum, it lacks strong leadership that can challenge the regime,” he said. “The protesters, as we know, don't have direct or tangible international support but there is anger and resentment. This makes the situation more volatile than it seems from the outside.”

All in all, Prof Swain saw the present situation as very difficult for the people of Iran. “The government in Tehran is waging a war against its own people. With little hope for international mediation, the regime, without a doubt, will exercise maximum power and force against the protestors. And if it manages to crush the uprising, it will become even more ideologically rigid than it is at this point,” he said.

According to Prof Swain, the West has different parameters to deal with such situations. “If this was an uprising in a former Soviet State or Eastern Europe, you would have seen a more engaged media and the international community. It is hypocrisy on display. We live in a world that has different standards for different situations,” he said. “There is very little equality of respect or equality of concern for the people of Iran. At the international level, I think the global community is very divided. The world lacks unanimity on the level of support it needs to offer to those who stand up for democracy, stand up for human rights and stand up for the rights of minorities.”

He also pointed out that Western priorities vis-à-vis Iran are presently misplaced. “Iran's supply of drones to Russia has become a bigger issue than what is happening inside Iran.” But that's not new or unexpected, he added. “Examine the global reaction to deaths and violations taking place in Burma. A huge humanitarian disaster is taking place for more than two years in the Tigray War. More than 600,000 people have been killed. Millions have been kept under some kind of sanctions regime and they are not able to access food and medicines but the international community is totally silent on this.”

View from abroad

Despite the apparent global disinterest in Iran and the attempts by its government to downplay the unrest, foreign experts saw the current movement as very different from other recent protests in the country.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, former adviser to an Australian government minister and a shadow minister, Dr Claude Rakisits, agreed that this is a very different sort of protest from the previous one. “This one probably presents the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since its foundation in 1979. But more importantly, this one is led by women and girls, who have been joined by men and people from all walks of life and all parts of Iran,” he said.

“Whether it will succeed is difficult to tell at this point. The last massive protest in 2009 against the rigged presidential elections did after all go on for four months before collapsing,” noted Dr Rakisits, who is an honorary associate professor at the Australian National University and Deakin University. “[But] while it was sparked off by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, it has since ballooned from anti-hijab protest to a counter-revolution demanding the end of the Islamic Republic.”

That said, Dr Rakisits voiced alarm that after weeks of protests more than 326 people, with quite a number of them children, were killed by the security and police forces using live ammunition. “This is before the regime has deployed in full force the ruthless IRGC. So I expect things to get much worse before they settle down.” He explained that the IRGC's raison d'être is the protection of the Islamic Revolution. “Put differently, if there is no longer an Islamic regime there is no longer any need for the IRGC. So, for the IRGC, the protests must not become an existential threat to their corporate interests.”

When asked, Dr Rakisits disagreed that the global community, the West in particular, is unconcerned with developments in Iran. “Ukraine and all developments associated with it do take a lot of the western media attention. However, this doesn't mean that the global community doesn't care about the protests. It's not mutually exclusive,” he stressed. According to him, a big problem is that it is virtually impossible for the international media to go into Iran to report on what is happening. “Most of the world's information comes from social media platforms, and these are restricted in any case.”

That said, he admitted that there is little the global community can do to prevent repression by Iran’s government. “With Iran, for all intents and purposes, a part of the Russia-China axis, we could expect support from China and other Islamic countries in the Human Rights Council if the situation came up for discussion. Any discussion on this issue in the UN Security Council would be guillotined by China and/or Russia, and possibly others as well,” Dr Rakisits said.

The sanctions question

On the topic of global assistance and punitive measures, Dr Elham Hoominfar stressed that indiscriminate maximum sanctions or any attempts that hurt the Iranian people are not right. “Targeted sanctions on the revolutionary guards and the regime’s top figures would be more effective,” she said, while urging the global community to ‘let people in Iran decide the future of Iran’. “We need international support and solidarity, particularly from grassroots movements. But it is the Iranian people who should decide about their future, not foreign governments,” she said.

Australia’s Dr Claude Rakisits, when asked the same, admitted that there has indeed been a certain degree of isolation of the people of Iran. “However, even with the Iranian clerical regime trying to further cut the Iranian people off from the rest of the world by limiting access to the internet and various social media platforms, it has not been able to stop the outside world from finding out what is really happening inside Iran,” he said.

While voices from Iran have been critical of sanctions and their effects, other international groups and activists see targeted sanctions as a useful tool to punish the regime. As opposed to blanket sanctions, the Human Rights Foundation has welcomed the increase in the use of targeted sanctions toward Iran’s regime, especially in response to grave human rights violations, HRF Chief Advocacy Officer Roberto González told The Express Tribune.

“Both the US and the UK have sanctioned the morality police in Iran for its abuse and violence against Iranian women and the violation of the rights of peaceful protestors,” González said. Asked what the global community can do, he suggested: “Democratic governments can impose sanctions, make statements against the Iranian regime’s oppression, and engage in a diplomatic boycott of Iran’s regime. And the wider public can take action and advocate for women in Iran, by sharing stories, amplifying voices from those on the ground, and supporting NGOs and civil society actors working on these issues.”

On a question about the isolation of the Iranian people, Human Rights Foundation Chief Advocacy Officer Roberto González said we must continue to stay informed, amplify Iranian women’s voices, and report on the deaths, internet censorship, and other human rights abuses committed by Iran’s regime. “As long as the global community continues to share the stories of the women on the frontlines of this revolution, they are not isolating the Iranian people. We need to show support and solidarity with them, and ensure that we continue to expose the regime’s oppressive treatment of women,” he added.

Speaking on the issue of sanctions, a senior European diplomat with considerable insights on Tehran said the increase of the international sanctions in the last years up to now are mostly due to the nuclear file, which is, at this stage, the most pressing issue for the international community.

“Unfortunately, after Trump's decision to leave JCPOA in 2018, despite many attempts to restore it, talks have failed for many reasons. As of today, the geopolitical scenario has changed considerably. The war in Ukraine has de facto strengthened the relationships between Moscow and Tehran. The Iranian circle of power around Khamenai is more determined to pursue the “looking to the east” policy, by strengthening relationships with China and the countries of the region,” shared the diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous due to established protocols.

The diplomat said Iran’s signing of the memorandum to join as a permanent member the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was highly significant. “In this situation it is difficult today to talk again about nuclear negotiations with Tehran when the echo of the wave of protests is still present in the international media.”

The diplomat also said it is worth noting that opponents of nuclear negotiations, through their organisations and their influence in the media, have taken the opportunity and are exploiting the situation to try to block any possible return to such negotiations. “In any case, balancing necessary contacts with Tehran to restart negotiations while maintaining a condemnation of the Iranian Government for the repression against protesters is going to be a difficult task, at least in the short term. Only at a later stage it will be possible to assess the possibility of the return to the nuclear talks.”

Khamenai’s successor

As protests wage on, reports have suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenai’s son Mojtaba will most likely succeed him on account of his ailing health. Against the backdrop of unrest, The Express Tribune asked foreign observers their views on the possible transition.

According to HRF’s Roberto González it is almost certain that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, will continue the tyrannical regime that oppresses women, commits human rights abuses, and kills peaceful protestors. “Given the current situation, we at the HRF are concerned about and condemn the continuation of the crackdown on demonstrators and the merciless killing of civilians. However, we also believe that Iran is at a turning point — one which we hope will pave the way for a transition to democracy in the country,” he said.

Australia’s Dr Claude Rakisits, however, did not think it is a given that Khamenei's son is going to succeed as the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution. “On the contrary, the massive uprising has diminished his chances because his selection would further enrage the protesters. Moreover, it would seem that the IRGC would prefer to have President Ebrahim Raisi as the successor, someone whom they feel they could more easily control.”

According to him, the only good news for Iranian people is that the "morality police" has lost its fear clout and it will never be able to regain it. “Of course, the regime also knows that if it loosens the rules on the wearing of the hijab the protesters will demand even more. And the protesters know that the regime is fully aware of this. All in all, the Ayatollahs can't win this one in the long run. And they would know this privately.”

According to the senior European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity, the question of the succession of Khamenei is a very complex issue. “There are many speculations in this regard. The possibility that Mojtaba would replace him in due time is one of them. However, the history of the Islamic Republic would advise caution in making predictions,” he said. “There is no doubt that the entire process will be managed in accordance with all centers of power, especially IRGC and the security apparatus. Whatever the outcome of the process, undoubtedly it will affect the future of the country and the region as well.”

A clerical view

Speaking to The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity, a senior Iranian cleric reiterated the stance of the nation’s supreme leader and president on the ongoing protests. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing another attempt by the West and those who are part of the disintegrating Western world order to destabilise the Islamic state by sponsoring and triggering protests,” he maintained. The protestors, the cleric alleged, are ‘backed by Western machinery’ and so, he insisted, the Iranian government had “no reason to legitimise the sponsored conspiracy against the Islamic Republic and what it stands for – the faith.”

“There is no space for such antics inside Iran,” the cleric stressed, adding that the Iranian government and lawmakers have expressed their support for strong action against the protesters. “They [the protestors] will be taught an exemplary lesson if they don’t comply,” he warned. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2386020/is-iran-on-the-brink-of-a-new-revolution

 

 

 

Chasing a Mirage: How Israel Arab Parties Validate Israeli Apartheid

Regardless of the outcome of the latest Israeli elections, Arab parties will not reap meaningful political benefits, even if they collectively achieve their highest representation ever. The reason is not about the parties themselves, but in Israel’s skewed political system which is predicated on racism and marginalization of non-Jews.

Israel was established on a problematic premise of being a homeland of all Jews, everywhere – not of Palestine’s own native inhabitants – and on a bloody foundation, that of the Nakba and the destruction of historic Palestine and the expulsion of its people.

Such beginnings were hardly conducive to the establishment of a real democracy, perfect or blemished. Not only did Israel’s discriminatory attitude persist throughout the years, it actually worsened, especially as the Palestinian Arab population rose disproportionally compared to the Jewish population between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

The unfortunate reality is that some Arab parties have participated in Israeli elections since 1949, some independently and others under the ruling Mapei party umbrella. They did so despite Arab communities in Israel being ruled by a military government (1951-1966) and practically governed, until this day, by the unlawful ‘Defense (Emergency Regulations)’. This participation has constantly been touted by Israel and its supporters as proof of the state’s democratic nature.

This claim alone has served as the backbone of Israeli hasbara throughout the decades. Though often unwittingly, Arab political parties in Israel have provided the fodder for such propaganda, making it difficult for Palestinians to argue that the Israeli political system is fundamentally flawed and racist.

Palestinian citizens have always debated among themselves about the pros and cons of taking part in Israeli elections. Some understood that their participation validates the Zionist ideology and Israeli apartheid, while others argued that refraining from participating in the political process denies Palestinians the opportunity to change the system from within.

The latter argument has lost much of its merit, as Israel sank deeper into apartheid, while social, political and legal conditions for Palestinians worsened. The Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel (Adalah) reports on dozens of discriminatory laws in Israel that exclusively target Arab communities. Additionally, in a report published in February, Amnesty International describes thoroughly how the “representation of Palestinian citizens of Israel in the decision making process … has been restricted and undermined by an array of Israeli laws and policies.”

This reality has existed for decades, long before July 19, 2018, when the Israeli parliament approved the so-called Jewish Nation-State Basic Law. The Law was the most glaring example of political and legal racism, which made Israel a full-fledged apartheid regime.

The Law was also the most articulate proclamation of Jewish supremacy over Palestinians in all aspects of life, including the right to self-determination.

Those who have argued that Arab participation in Israeli politics served a purpose in the past should have done more than collectively denounce the Nation-State law, by resigning en masse, effective immediately. They should have taken advantage of the international uproar to convert their struggle from a parliamentary to a popular grassroots one.

Alas, they have not. They continued to participate in Israeli elections, arguing that if they achieved greater representation in the Israeli Knesset, they should be able to challenge the tsunami of Israeli discriminatory laws.

This did not happen, even after the Joint List, which unified four Arab parties in the March 2020 elections, achieved its greatest turnout ever, becoming the Knesset’s third largest political bloc.

The supposed historic victory culminated to nil because all mainstream Jewish parties, regardless of their ideological backgrounds, refused to include Arab parties in their potential coalitions.

The enthusiasm that mobilized Arab voters behind the Joint List began to dwindle, and the List itself fragmented, thanks to Mansour Abbas, the head of the Arab party, Ra’am.

In the March 2021 elections, Abbas wanted to change the dynamics of Arab politics in Israel altogether. “We focus on the issues and problems of the Arab citizens of Israel within the Green Line,” Abbas told TIME magazine in June 2021, adding “we want to heal our own problems”, as if declaring a historic delink from the rest of the Palestinian struggle.

Abbas was wrong, as Israel perceives him, his followers, the Joint List and all Palestinians to be obstacles in its efforts to maintain the exclusivist ‘Jewish identity’ of the state. The Abbas experiment, however, became even more interesting, when Ra’am won 4 seats and joined a government coalition led by far-right, anti-Palestinian politician Naftali Bennet.

By the time the coalition collapsed in June, Abbas achieved little, aside from splitting the Arab vote and proving, again, that changing Israeli politics from within has always been a fantasy.

Even after all of this, Arab parties in Israel still insisted on participating in a political system that, despite its numerous contradictions, agreed on one thing: Palestinians are, and will always be, the enemy.

Even the violent events of May 2021, where Palestinians found themselves fighting on multiple fronts – against the Israeli army, police, intelligence services, armed settlers and even ordinary citizens – did not seem to change the Arab politicians’ mindset. Arab population centers in Umm Al-Fahm, Lydda and Jaffa, were attacked with the same racist mentality as Gaza and Sheikh Jarrah, illustrating that nearly 75 years of supposed integration between Jews and Arabs under Israel’s political system hardly changed the racist view towards Palestinians.

Instead of converting the energy of what Palestinians dubbed the ‘Unity Intifada’ to invest in Palestinian unity, Arab Israeli politicians returned to the Israeli Knesset, as if they still had hope in salvaging Israel’s inherently corrupt political system.

The self-delusion continues. On September 29, Israel’s Central Election Committee disqualified an Arab party, Balad, from running in the November elections. The decision was eventually overturned by the country’s Supreme Court, urging an Arab legal organization in Israel to describe the decision as ‘historic’. In essence, they suggested that Israel’s apartheid system still carries the hope of true democracy.

The future of Arab politics in Israel will remain grim if Arab politicians continue to pursue this failed tactic. Though Palestinian citizens of Israel are socio-economically privileged if compared to Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, they enjoy nominal or no substantive political or legal rights. By remaining loyal participants in Israel’s democracy charade, these politicians continue to validate the Israeli establishment, thus harming, not only Palestinian communities in Israel but, in fact, Palestinians everywhere.

 Dr. Ramzy Baroud 

 

Who is China's President Xi Jinping?

 

Who is China's President Xi Jinping?

Issued on: 21/10/2022 - 23:04Modified: 21/10/2022 - 23:02

 When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, some observers predicted he would be the most liberal Communist Party leader in China's history, based on his low-key profile, family backstory and perhaps a degree of misguided hope.

Ten years later, those forecasts lie in tatters, proving only how little was understood of the man who looks set to become China's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong after the five-yearly Communist Party Congress ends on Saturday.

Xi has shown himself to be ruthless in his ambition, intolerant of dissent, with a desire for control that has infiltrated almost every aspect of life in modern China.

He has gone from being primarily known as the husband of a celebrity singer to someone whose apparent charisma and aptitude for political storytelling have created a personality cult not seen since Mao's day.

The colourful details of his early life have been rinsed and repackaged in official party lore, but the man himself -- and what drives him -- remain somewhat more of an enigma.

"I dispute the conventional view that Xi Jinping struggles for power for power's sake," Alfred L. Chan, author of a book on Xi's life, told AFP.

"I would suggest that he strives for power as an instrument... to fulfil his vision."

Another biographer, Adrian Geiges, told AFP that he did not think Xi was motivated by a desire for personal enrichment, despite international media investigations having revealed his family's amassed wealth.

"That's not his interest," Geiges said.

"He really has a vision about China, he wants to see China as the most powerful country in the world."

Central to that vision -- what Xi calls the "Chinese Dream" or "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" -- is the role of the Communist Party (CCP).

"Xi is a man of faith... for him, God is the Communist Party," wrote Kerry Brown, author of "Xi: A Study in Power".

"The greatest mistake the rest of the world makes about Xi is to not take this faith seriously."

Xi might not seem an obvious candidate to become a CCP diehard, though he grew up as a "princeling", or member of the party elite.

His father Xi Zhongxun was a revolutionary hero turned vice premier, whose "strictness toward his family members was so serious that even those close to him believed it bordered on the inhuman", according to the elder Xi's biographer Joseph Torigian.

But when Zhongxun was purged by Mao and targeted during the Cultural Revolution, "(Jinping) and his family were traumatised", said Chan.

His status vanished overnight, and the family was split up. One of his half-sisters is reported to have killed herself because of the persecution.

Xi has said he was ostracised by his classmates, an experience the political scientist David Shambaugh suggests contributed to a "sense of emotional and psychological detachment and his autonomy from a very young age".

At just 15, Xi was ordered to the countryside in central China where he spent years hauling grain and sleeping in cave homes.

"The intensity of the labour shocked me," he later said.

He also had to take part in "struggle sessions" in which he had to denounce his father.

"Even if you don't understand, you are forced to understand," he said, describing the sessions to a Washington Post reporter "with a trace of bitterness" in a 1992 interview.

"It makes you mature earlier."

Biographer Chan said the experiences of his youth had given him "toughness".

"He tends to go for broke. He tends to use a two-fisted approach when he approaches problems. But he also has a certain appreciation of the arbitrariness of power and that's why he also emphasises law-based governance."

Nowadays, the cave Xi slept in is a domestic tourist draw, used to emphasise traits such as his concern for China's poorest.

When AFP visited in 2016, one local painted a picture of an almost legendary figure, reading books between breaks in hard labour "so one could see he was no common man".

Chinese President Xi Jinping's apparent charisma and aptitude for political storytelling have created a personality cult not seen since the days of Mao Zedong Saeed KHAN AFP/File

That does not seem to have been obvious at the time though. Xi himself said he was not even rated "as high as the women" when he first arrived.

His application for CCP membership was rejected multiple times because of the family stigma, before it was finally accepted.

Beginning as a village party boss in 1974, Xi climbed to the governorship of coastal Fujian province in 1999, then party chief of Zhejiang province in 2002 and eventually Shanghai in 2007.

"He was working very systematically... to get experience by starting at a very low level, in a village, then in a prefecture... and so on," said biographer Geiges.

"And he was very clever by keeping a low profile."

Xi's father was rehabilitated in the late 1970s following the death of Mao, massively boosting his son's standing.

Following a divorce from his first wife, Xi married superstar soprano Peng Liyuan in 1987, at a time when she was much better known than him.

Even so, his potential was not apparent to all, exemplified by comments made by his host on a trip to the United States in 1985.

"No one in their right mind would ever think that that guy who stayed in my house would become the president," Eleanor Dvorchak was quoted as saying years later in the New Yorker magazine.

Cai Xia, a former high-ranking CCP cadre who now lives in exile in the United States, believes Xi "suffers from an inferiority complex, knowing that he is poorly educated in comparison with other top CCP leaders".

As a result, he is "thin-skinned, stubborn, and dictatorial", she wrote in a recent article in Foreign Affairs.

'Heir of the revolution'

But Xi has always regarded himself "as an heir of the revolution", said Chan.

In 2007, he was appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's highest decision-making body.

When he replaced Hu Jintao five years later, there was little in Xi's past administrative record that foreshadowed his actions once installed as leader.

He has cracked down on civil society movements, independent media and academic freedoms, overseen alleged human rights abuses in the northwest Xinjiang region, and promoted a far more aggressive foreign policy than his predecessor.

In the absence of access to either Xi or any of his inner circle, scholars are left to survey his earlier writings and speeches for clues to his motivations.

"The absolute centrality of the party's mission to make China a great country again is evident from Xi's earliest recorded statements," wrote Brown.

Xi has harnessed that narrative of an ascendant China to great effect, using nationalism as a tool for his own and the party's legitimacy among the population.

But there is also evidence he fears that grasp on power might decline.

"The fall of the Soviet Union and of socialism in eastern Europe was a big shock," said Geiges, adding Xi blames the collapse on its political opening up.

"So he decided that something like this shall not happen to China... that's why he wants strong leadership of the Communist Party, with one strong leader." https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221021-who-is-china-s-president-xi-jinping

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

 

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party formally closed on Saturday (Oct., 23, 2022)
The full report answers some of the questions about China’s future direction and priorities, although it does not drill down into specific policies. It explained Xi’s common prosperity initiative and how it can be achieved. The report also outlined his vision of green development and greater self-reliance in science and technology.

Xi also delivered a strong message on anti-corruption, as well as military and defence after pledges to improve strategic deterrence were included in the report for the first time the 20th party congress is very much a show for Xi. The message of his supreme leadership and his dream of national rejuvenation will be amplified and promoted in China many months after the conclusion of the congress

Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping has unveiled his main supporting cast for his record-breaking third term, promoting rising stars Li Qiang, Li Xi, Ding Xuexiang and Cai Qi to China’s highest decision-making body.

Together with ideology tsar Wang Huning, and former anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, they will form the new Politburo Standing Committee. By bringing these fresh faces into his core team, Xi has laid the foundation for his rule for the next five years and beyond.

He brought them out to meet the press at the Great Hall of the People on Sunday, capping the Communist Party’s week-long 20th national congress. According to state news agency Xinhua, the new hierarchy order of the Politburo is party secretary Xi Jinping, 69, Li Qiang, 63, Zhao Leji, 65, Wang Huning, 67, Cai Qi, 66, Ding Xuexiang, 60 and Li Xi, 66.

This means Li Qiang will become China’s next premier, as the South China Morning Post reported earlier.  Cai Qi is the first secretary of the party’s secretariat – taking over from Wang Huning – and will be responsible for the day-to-day running of key party affairs.

How Pakistan can leverage international climate financing

 

How Pakistan can leverage international climate financing

In order to achieve the 2030 emissions target, and make our cities liveable, Pakistan will need to attract investment in climate change initiatives.

William P. Mako | Amna Mahmood | Ijaz Nabi Published September 14, 2022

Imagine it is 2030, and a chilly November morning. You step out of your house and are welcomed by a clear sky and not a pervasive smog, a common occurrence not so long ago that required you to mask up and forced schools to close down.

You start the car and the engine revs up noiselessly and without fumes — you recently replaced the older petrol version with an electric vehicle. Many people you know have made a similar switch as it has become easier to purchase electric vehicles and charging stations are now within easy access.

Shifting to a solar home system reduced monthly electricity bills and generated savings allowed you to invest in the electric vehicle. The image of a dense tree-lined street, with the green contrasting magnificently against the blue sky, reflects on your rear mirror as you reverse the car and head to work.

This can be Lahore in 2030 if the government realises its vision of drastically reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the climate action plan, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

 

Mission green

The aim is to reduce GHG emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 from the projected levels through shifting to 60pc renewable energy and 30pc electric vehicles, banning imported coal, and sequestering (or capturing) carbon (a common GHG) through natural resource restoration initiatives such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP) and the Protected Areas Initiative.

It is common knowledge that Pakistan contributes minimally to global GHG emissions — 2020 emissions of CO2 accounted for less than 0.7 per cent of global emissions.Why then, you may ask, did the government decide to set such ambitious plans to reduce local GHG emissions?

 

It is because being in the category of low emitters, sadly, does not make the country immune to the consequences of global GHG emissions. Between 2000 and 2019, the Global Climate Risk Index ranked Pakistan the 8th most vulnerable nations affected by climate change. The recent floods will probably bump it further up the vulnerability rank when the index is calculated next.

 

GHGs are problematic because they trap heat, leading to increased global temperatures, and like Covid-19, do not respect national boundaries. If global warming were to exceed 2 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial levels, it is expected to cause rising sea-levels, extreme and unpredictable weather, and damage to ecosystems and human settlements at a scale that has not been observed before.

 

It is precisely due to the global nature of the problem that 196 countries (including Pakistan) became signatory to the legally binding Paris Agreement in 2015, an international treaty on climate change that established the goal of limiting global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius. The same agreement also requires signatories to submit their NDCs every five years to show their commitment towards achieving this goal.

 

The question then is: how will Pakistan’s climate targets be financed?

 

Show me the money

In the NDCs’ view, 15pc of the reduction in 2030 GHG emissions will be financed from domestic sources, and the remaining 35 per cent should be financed from international sources.

 

In other words, the ability to meet the 2030 commitments will hinge upon the availability of international climate finance, ideally on a concessional (lower market rate, generous terms) basis.

 

Broadly speaking, climate finance refers to local, national or transnational financing that is targeted towards supporting mitigation and adaptation actions that address climate change.

 

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement call upon parties with more financial resources to assist those that are less endowed and more vulnerable, so that progress towards the global objective of stabilising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere can be made. There is also an added expectation that developed countries will take the lead in mobilising climate finance.

 

To date, Pakistan’s access to international climate flows has been very limited. Its profile of relatively high climate vulnerability and relatively low income per capita may allow it to attract concessional climate finance but, nonetheless, will require meeting stringent qualifying criteria.

 

Globally, the volume of concessionary finance has been modest. Of the total climate finance of $632 billion available in 2019-20, $65 billion was concessionary finance by multinationals to East Asian economies and only $20 billion was grants to the poorest countries. The Ukraine war may further cloud prospects for a substantial increase in the overall volume of funds at least for the foreseeable future.

 

Furthermore, the great majority of Pakistan’s planned mitigation spending is for renewable energy. For instance, the NDCs anticipate $101 billion for energy transition alone (the energy sector accounted for 41pc of Pakistan’s 2018 GHG emissions) by 2030. As the costs of renewable alternatives fall within the range for fossil fuel options, non-concessional financing for renewable investments has become the norm.

 

Investors expect renewable energy investments to cover their costs and provide an adequate return on investment and hence, not qualify for concessionary climate finance. Recent trends show the same. Of about $324 billion in recent worldwide annual funding for renewable energy, a large proportion was market-rate debt and private equity.

 

The opportunities

Faced with such challenges, what options are available to attract substantial quantities of international climate finance? Well, Pakistan can explore two strategies.

 

One, it should look at cases of innovative financing instruments and apply those relevant to the local context. Two, and more broadly, it should look to improve structural issues to make itself a more attractive destination for international climate finance. A few examples are shared as follows.

 

In November last year, Belize committed to protecting 30pc of its ocean (as well as a range of other conservation initiatives) in exchange for a $362 million debt-for-nature swap that reduced Belize’s debt by 12pc of the GDP. This was the largest debt financing to date for ocean conservation and was negotiated with The Nature Conservatory, an environmental organisation.

 

Pakistan can also explore financing nature conservation projects, such as the TBTTP, through a similar settlement. In April 2021, the government issued 30-year bonds for $500 million. If the government can borrow to redeem the outstanding April 2051 bonds, initial calculations show that debt servicing savings generated could potentially fund 5.7 billion trees over the bonds’ remaining maturity period.

 

Debt-for-nature swaps can also be applied to subsidising green technology to make farming practices more eco-friendly. For three weeks straddling October and November, farmers in the Punjab province resort to stubble burning of the harvested rice crop to prepare the fields for wheat sowing.

 

As a consequence of this (and also of low-grade fuel, industrial emissions and dust particles), many cities in Punjab experience a sharp deterioration in air quality. One known technology for eliminating stubble burning is the “happy seeder” which breaks down rice stubble (mulching it to the ground), and plants wheat seeds simultaneously.

 

Options to subsidise this technology to make it financially viable for the farmers by approaching environmental organisations (such as the TNC above) to fund crop stubble burning abatement can be explored.

 

Pakistan’s coal fleet is fairly young when compared to coal-fired plants in the US, Russia, and Europe, which have a higher average age of 30-40 years. The government can use this to its advantage when negotiating coal plant retirements.

 

Who would de-commission a young coal-fired plant without some sort of concessional financing? It should be possible to borrow enough from multilateral/ bilateral development financial institutions to (i) buy out the investors for major coal-fired plants and pay de-commissioning costs, and (ii) generate revenue from carbon credits for future emissions prevented to pay off this borrowing.

 

Potential climate financiers will appreciate a more fully developed presentation of emission reduction plans. It will be important to show specifically what changes would be needed in Pakistan to reduce 2030 emissions to 50pc below the baseline projection.

 

For example, major increases in renewable energy are contemplated, however, goals for achieving these targets have not been laid out clearly. Specific projects, and the emissions cut contribution for each, should be identified and grouped by suitability for receiving concessional climate finance.

 

It will also be important to generate credible investment costs projections, for example, the estimate for buying out new coal power plants and Thar coal mines is placed at $18 billion, which is significantly greater than the investments in the five electricity generation public-private partnerships (PPPs) that reached financial close since 2016 and totalled only $6.6b.

 

The International Capital Market Association (ICMA) is a non-profit association and is responsible for the development and monitoring of the Green Bond Principles that provide guidelines on transparency, disclosure and reporting on funding to projects that contribute to environmental sustainability.

 

Ease of doing business

In September 2021, the Securities Exchange Commission of Pakistan’s (SECP) approved the national guidelines for green bonds. These guidelines recognise, but go beyond the ICMA principles for green investment requiring more work for the issuer and regulator. THE SECP should refine domestic guidelines for green bonds to minimise the burden on investors.

 

A country’s risk rating can affect the overall credit rating for a public private partnership (PPP) project company, and hence the cost of its debt and the rate at which it can profitably sell an infrastructure service (for example, electricity) within the country.

 

Pakistan currently ranks at around the 25th percentile from the bottom on rule of law indicators, well below the averages for South Asia and other regions. To raise Pakistan’s attractiveness to potential foreign investors, it will be important to work to improve the country’s rule of law rating on contract enforcement, property rights, and physical security indicators to enhance investor confidence.

 

To summarise, in order to achieve the 2030 emissions target, and make our cities liveable, Pakistan will need to attract investment in climate change initiatives.This will require Pakistan to de-commission coal plants, expand renewable sources of energy, invest in green technology more broadly and deepen the green finance market for bonds by improving perceptions about country risk.

 

More importantly, it will be critical to build capacity and technical expertise within the Ministry of Finance, which is leading the country’s climate finance efforts, so it can identify and mobilise financing from the range of climate finance instruments and means available internationally.

 

In recent weeks, there has been much talk about the developed world compensating the developing nations for catastrophic climate-related events — the current floods are a case in point — fuelled by their high-emitting economic activities. The time is here to work with international partners to support the country’s climate change efforts. https://www.dawn.com/news/1708561/how-pakistan-can-leverage-international-climate-financing