The Way Forward (2013-2023) Energy Plan For Pakistan

The Way Forward (2013-2023) Energy Plan For Pakistan (JR09)

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Executive Summary

The 2009 energy recovery plan and 2013 power policy objectives have partly been achieved. Capacity has been added. Imported and local coal capacity has been added or will be added in the next two years, thereby addressing the power mix issues to an extent. Losses numbers have gone down to about 18% and recoveries have increased to about 96%. The gap between supply and demand of gas has also been bridged, by end of the year 2017, by the commissioning of two LNG terminals and LNG import agreements   The first terminal Elengy Terminal Pakistan Limited is a 100% owned subsidiary of ENGRO, the company, which has been created to establish and operate a terminal for the handling, re-gasification, storage, treatment and processing of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) constructed in Port Qasim Karachi. In line with the approval, LNG Services Agreement   has been signed between SSGC and Elengy Terminal Pakistan Limited (ETPL), with capacity to re-gasify 600 mmCFD . The second terminal which also has the capacity to re-gasify 600 mmCFD per day has been commissioned by the Associated Group.  Annex 1 provides an assessment of the energy sector including a gap analysis.

 Both power and gas shortages have been addresses and in the next five years there will be need to move forward in both areas.  Failures include: regression on regulatory issues; indifferent power system planning; recoveries issues has not been completely solved, better numbers have been achieved by imposition of surcharges which has brought down the magnitude of cross subsidy. Industrial cross subsidy to domestic (high industrial tariffs have impacted upon export competitiveness) and inter DISCO cross subsidy has not been tackled .Progress on hydropower has been less than desired no major hydropower dam is currently under construction Dasu is also stalled, little work was possible on major water storage and power dams , although Neelum Jhelum and Tarbela extension are nearing completion and a number of high head medium/small output plants have been commissioned) . Dependence upon foreign fuels still persists adding to the growing balance of trade and reserves problems. Privatization and restructuring issues have received much attention, curtsey IMF Program (since concluded), but has seen little progress. Privatization of the four performing DISCOs is deemed to be crucial since the proceeds will write off the circular debt parked in the Power Holding Company. In recent moves GoP is considering bifurcating three DISCOs so as to make these more attractive to investors. Market reform and regulation issues also received little attention, in some ways regulatory affairs have received a setback. Moving towards a multi buyer market structure is seen as a must for the sector to perform.

Local gas and oil output has increased but the progress on exploration has been poor, insufficient progress has been made on: shale gas; tight gas; off shore exploration. Some of this could be explained by security conditions but these are  getting better and Majors drill in places with even worst security conditions .Mining of local coal ( except Thar where considerable and significant progress has been made) has not received much attention . Energy efficiency and conservation has received very little attention. Non commercial energy issues have received very little attention. Biomass and solar utilization in agriculture pumping received limited attention. 

There has been impressive progress but there is still work to do, areas where the short term efforts are to be focused to achieve medium and long term objectives are: Self Reliance – the energy mix has been altered but the share of foreign energy in total energy is still not addressed, there is need to encourage – hydropower, solar, wind, biogas, biomass to correct this energy mix in the medium and long term. Mapping of oil and gas resources and accelerated exploration of oil and gas would help, do to would be exploration for shale gas and off shore gas .; Indigenization of energy investments Pakistan still relies very heavily upon imported technology in the energy sector, there is need to put in place policies and procedures to encourage increase in local content in energy investments ; Governance – The liberalization of the power system and the oil and gas system is stalled and there is little progress in moving towards a  free market system, Government interference in day to day affairs has in fact increased , there is need to fix the financial dysfunction and put in place a transparent and independent regulatory system , after which the remaining entities in the power sector and oil and gas sector are to be privatized . Poor and non professional decision making along with misplaced priorities have resulted in circular debt. Improved and professional decision making will help in resolution of the financial dysfunction of the sector.

Objectives of the Strategic Plan

The strategic directions for developing energy sector include:

1.                     Optimize the utilization of country’s indigenous resource base especially hydropower to reduce the dependence on imported fuel through an institutionalized strategy. Thar coal utilization is in hand, coal other than Thar needs attention. Conversion of Tube wells to biomass, biogas and solar needs to be pursued as means of avoiding imported fuels. Wind and Solar would also contribute in imported fuel substitution. Accelerated exploration for gas and oil including tapping shale gas and off shore hydrocarbon resources also need attention.

2.                     The assurance of supply of energy at optimum and competitive price to all sectors of economy. Efficiency and energy conversation needs special attention. Cross subsidies need to be removed; Industry needs to be provided energy including power at cost recovery based tariffs.

3.                     Indigenization of energy investments including provision of employment to local people by means of   enhanced exploration of indigenous resources within the country and putting in place incentives for local manufacture or assembly of energy equipment and systems . Encouragement to local contractors and consultants needs to be made a part of the national energy policy.

4.                     Creation of a conducive and healthy environment for the participation of private sector in energy sector development under the supervision of effective, independent and transparent regulatory authorities.

Indian Muslims

The web site www.missionislam.com [1] states‘ The richer, English-educated Muslims are getting Brahminised. They havebecome imitators of upper caste Hindus as they live not in Muslim localitiesbut in Hindu areas. The poor Muslims (they form 95% of the Muslim population)live in ghettos and being better followers of Islam, they are left high anddry. Hence they are getting killed in all anti-Muslim riots …Any move toorganise them to protect the Muslim life and property is branded as communal.Any Muslim flirting, if not supporting the upper castes, is called a"nationalist Muslim". The gulf between the Muslim masses and educated richMuslims is widening every day … Names of Muslims who died for India areavoided. A great martyr who died for India like Tippu Sultan is unknown toyoungsters, whereas the name of Tantia Tope, who fought not for India but forhis pension, and Jhansi Laxmi Bai, who fought for her adopted son's heirshipto the throne, is brought on the lips of every Indian …No Muslim getsawards for his contribution to science, medicine, music, art or gallantry.Even those who fought from the ranks of the ruling Congress Party likeMoulana Azad, Kidwai, Syed Mahmood, Humayun Kabir etc. do not have a road orextension named after them ... History is being re-written. ("FalsifyingIndian History", DV editorial, April 16, 1985). Muslims are killed daily andtheir houses and shops burnt. The doors of the Army, police andadministration are closed to them …The systematic and daily anti-Muslimriots resulting in loss of life and property, and above all the sense of fearin the hearts of every Muslim, elimination of the martial Muslims from theDefence, paramilitary and police forces and brahminising of these forces,closing the doors of appointments in Govt. services and public undertakings,Brahminisation of education and mass.media like radio, TV and advertisement,elimination of Urdu as official language from those areas which form thepresent day States of Punjab, Haryana, UP, Bihar, parts of Madhya Pradesh,Maharastra, Andhra Pradhesh and Karnataka overnight in 1947-48, gradualclosing of Urdu schools are all examples of positive anti-Muslimpolicies…Muslim electoral constituencies are divided horizontally andvertically so that they don't have an effective voting power anywhere andthrusting upon them ultra-secular Muslim leaders who have started worshippingHindu idols and such scenes being systematically televised. UnfortunatelyMuslim leaders, who are dejected with the Govt., repose much confidence inHindu masses and hope to secure their help ignoring the fact that the poorHindu (Dalit) masses are as much victims of such a propaganda. And as on thisday only seeds are being sown. The harvest is yet to come. When the harvestreason comes, what will be harvested in India is repetition of Spain, unlessthe Muslims resort to counter measures soon.'

Modi mails take the fight to BCCI

Modi mails take the fight to BCCI

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Islamic Finiance

Scholars of Islamic finance seem to be overly immersed in issues related to interest. Efforts to create so called Islamic finance instruments have at best only marginally departed from the conventional interest bearing ones and so called Islamic finance is perhaps very little different from conventional finance. It seems that the Koran forbids punitive interest rates and interest on basic consumption. It can also be argued that the Koran would justify returns on loan to cover inflation on grounds of justice and equity.
Islamic finance of course is much more than interest free finance. The Koran recognizes and encourages disparity in incomes, in fact the competition and struggle (though not to the point of extinction) is recommended so that society can identify the talented and progressive for installation in leadership and management positions in society .The Koran, however forbids absolute poverty’ in form of poor tax but more importantly the Koran requires parity or at last convergence in consumption. Other words the Koran encourages disparity in incomes but insists in parity in consumption , those who are high earners need to make ‘surplus’ capital available to society in form of investment and production or consumption or outright charity .Poverty is seen as an ill which discourages individuals form the higher purposes of life and hinders the cohesion of the society. High earners need to fund education health et for society at large and this is an investment towards tension free and risk free existence as the rich when they turn poor will be given the same treatment and they or their children will not be deprived .

Short Story 1

THE CHALLENGE

By Javed Rashid

Hasan professed to believe in no religion, he had a hazy idea that being a “good" person was more important than being a good Muslim. Muslim elite and middle class response to freedom, from colonial rule, was initially to equate “liberal” morals as a sign of modernity .Drinking, sex outside marriage, having permissible attitudes towards sex all were used as symbols of modernism. Comics were used as signs of belonging to the progressive modern group .Smoking cigarettes also came under the same iconology .All “in” people were supposed to smoke and drink and have liberal attitudes towards sex and subscribe to Archie’s life style .He did not bother to understand his religion at all .
Partition and the creation of a new country brought about the cruelest of materialist societal structure .Corruption was the norm and very soon nothing got done without graft .This seemed to be the fate of most newly independent states. The early days of independence ,and for that matter the latter periods, brought about wide corruption on small and large scale ,with involvement of the governing elite and the common man .Corruption therefore soon became an accepted and necessary part of the social structure ,greasing of palms became essential for any thing to get moving .Hasan and his like abhorred this corrupt state of society ,they did believe in ‘fair play’ and progress by hard work ,these were idealistic and un pragmatic thoughts of an ineffective and powerless elite .
Hasan drifted along in his less than half baked notions, he accepted little responsibility and had little concept of money .His father, a reasonably rich man, provided a comfortable living and Hasan could maintain his detracted superior existence without doing too much.
Hasan’s serene trouble free existence underwent a serious somersault .His father fell seriously sick. He was hospitalized and after extensive tests, his ailment was diagnosed as cancer of the lungs.
Hasan loved his father and he spent most of his time in the hospital, looking after his father. This required that he spend nights and a large part of the day in the intensive care unit of the hospital .Hasan, in the six months his father lived, witnessed quite a few losing their battle and succumbing to the icy clutches of death. These deaths and the subsequent demise of his father caused a lot a grief but it also seriously disturbed Hasan’s world .His liberal , “modernistic” world suddenly collapsed .He felt attracted to religion , as his concepts could not help him deal or understand death .
Hasan started praying five times a day and started reading the Koran .Very soon he felt the need to understand what the Koran preached .The Koran is a fascinating divine book , it answers doubts as soon as these are raised .Hasan did find solace in the teaching’s of the Koran and it also assisted him in dealing with death .

While reading the Koran Hasan came across Koran’s assertion that “We provide Rizak – e – Halal to whosoever who seeks it “ Hasan’s doubting skeptical mental makeup found this to be unacceptable .He reasoned that in the society as corrupt and venal as his it would be impossible to earn a living without getting involved in some form of corruption . He issued this as a form of challenge to the Koran, he was sure that he would win as it was not possible to exist at a reasonable standard in his venal society without doing something that was religiously and or legally or morally forbidden .He made this as the test case .How could the Koran issue such a statement, surely this was an error and he felt very sure that he would be proven correct. The gauntlet was thrown and unknown to Hasan was accepted.
The trauma lessened its impact with passing time and Hasan started to revert back to his old ways .This however was not possible, as the care free days were over .His, seemingly, rich father was in reality barely comfortable .Hasan inherited some property, which however did not gave him regular income .He got involved in the business of earning a living, in this process he forgot the challenge he had issued to the Koranic statement.
The business that Hasan stumbled into was construction of civil engineering structures .This line of business was exceptionally dirty ,contractors used less than required materials , unfit and improper materials are used ,the supervising officials sought and extracted a hefty kick back .Hasan was even more disadvantages as he had very little capital .
Hasan struggled to find work for his newly established firm .The construction industry is and was dotted by large number of small and large firms .The officials who manage the contracts against which tasks are given out, mostly, expect handsome kickbacks .The main Drigh Road, as it was then named, needed a bridge to ensure smooth traffic flow over railway lines which the road crossed .Aslam Khan the chief engineer of the department was nearing retirement , the bridge contract was his last chance to create the pile he wished for his retirement .The allures of Shazia ,the buxom dancing girls ,also had demands upon the material wealth of Aslam .He ,Aslam , did not expect the usual, registered contractors to accede to his more than normal or unusual demands .To ensure that his expectation be met he required some manipulations be made to the number and class of competing firms . He managed to pre qualify a number of small firms. This ofcourse was blatant disregard of the rules and norms.
Hasan , who one morning, read the notice in the newspaper, applied for pre qualification. He did not expect any results from this .To his great surprise his firm was allowed to quote and to his even greater surprise he was awarded the million dollar contract .By the time Hasan got the contract Aslam had been charge sheeted, on a different and earlier transgression, and was sent on forced retirement, much to his and Shazia’s disappointment .He was succeeded by Sharrif , an oddity in the corrupt department , he was honest . Sharrif was a insignificant looking , badly dressed man , very few people understood what he said as he mumbled at great speed but he was honest to a fault .Along with Shariff the newly formed Government got interested in the bridge contract , this being an election promise , few of which are honored , was important . The fact that there was to be a by election on the seat vacated by the incumbent, who had a heart attack the day he was to take oath, did not hurt the bridge’s cause .All of this meant that Hasan ,who owned little more than a old motor car and a brief case managed to successfully complete a rather sophisticated contact without paying any body any illegal amount or resorting to corrupt practices .Hasan made a lot of money most of which he gave back to the tax authorities , who were ofcourse disappointed . Hasan after completing the contract was only a little more richer than before but in the process he had acquired and fulfilled a contract in one of the most corrupt section of the economy , without paying any bribes and without resorting to malpractices .Round one to the Koran ,although Hasan did not realize the fact at that time

 .
This was of course not the only incident ,telephone connections , in those days , required a handsome bribe to be paid , Hasan ,for his office ,applied for two connections .Along with his application he mentioned the fact that he was working on a project of “ national importance “ , much to his and the telephone departments surprise he got both connections sanctioned in a week .Similarly pick up trucks were only available after paying a hefty premium or a bribe , but Hasan got his vehicles on the same day without paying any extra amount .
There were instances where Hasan paid bribe but surprisingly did not get what he wanted, people would simply pocket the money offered and not do the undue action promised, a rather unusual occurrence as there is some ethics even in thieves.
There were countless other such examples where, surprising, he got things done without any graft, which customarily required some form of palm greasing.
Game, set and match to you know what .Hasan only realized much later that his challenge had been accepted and successfully defended.

Indian Taliban

The Pakistani connection to Mumbai attacks is clear as the Pakistani Government has taken some individuals in custody on evidence provided by Indians ,The Indian connection is ambiguous. Here are two reports :Telegraph UK reports ‘A Pakistani militant group used an Indian operative as far back as 2007 to scout targets for the elaborate plot against India's financial capital, authorities have said. Ansari, an Indian national, was arrested in February in north India carrying hand-drawn sketches of hotels, the train terminal and other sites that were later attacked in Mumbai, said Amitabh Yash, director of the Special Task Force of the Uttar Pradesh police. India has blamed elements within Pakistan of carrying out the attacks. New Delhi has said the Kashmiri terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which operates from bases near Lahore, had planned and executed the attack. But the organisational network behind the incident yesterday appeared to stretch far beyond Pakistan and was reliant on help from within India and its eastern neighbour, Bangladesh .All the recovered cards were registered in the name of Hussain Ur Rehman, a resident of a district on the border with Bangladesh ‘www.Zimbo.com reports ‘ .. the fact remains that the Bharati authorities have reluctantly been forced to admit the fact that there is a local connection to the Mumbai attacks. The local connection was first admitted by Ratan Tata, the owner of the Taj Hotel who said the aliens could not know the detailed maps of the hotel–and someone just landing on the beach would not know that there were no metal detectors at the back of the hotel and would not know how to navigate to the top floor without security being alerted. In a five-and-a-half-minute conversation with Imran Babar – [...], who, using the code-name Abu Akasha, took control of a Jewish prayer house in the Colaba area – a still-unidentified controller who appears to have been a native Hindi speaker provided detailed instructions to the terrorist on the contents of a statement he hoped to make to the media. During the conversation, the controller used words like karenga - characteristic Mumbai usage for the phrase “will do” – as well as gathbandan, in place of the Urdu word, ittehad, for alliance, and prashasan, instead of intezamiya or hukumat, for government. All other conversations recorded in the tape are in Punjabi, Urdu and heavily-accented English. Mohammad Ajmal Amir Kasab, the sole surviving [...] assault team member, had told a Mumbai court that his unit had been taught rudimentary Hindi by an Indian national who was known by the alias ‘Abu Jundal’. How could Ajmal Kasab read and write his confession in Marhatti–when he is supposedly a Punjabi from a small village in Pakistan. How could the militant traverse the distance from the seashore to the hotel carrying RPGs, machine guns and grenades without arousing any suspicion. How could a little dingy able to hoodwink the Bharati Coast Guards, the Indian Navy on the most heavily defended real estate on the planet? Evidence is emerging that ] controllers who guided the course of the November 2008 assault on Mumbai may have included at least one Indian national.’Will both Governments come clean Please .

Carbon Emissions

The Koran clearly says that if you do not act responsibly you will be replaced with other species. Get your act together else one outcome in the not to distant future could be extinction of the human race . Stop bickering and act now on climate change .The option of doing nothing does not exist as inaction could result in being wiped out and only remain as fossils for future species to discover